In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
With limited football over this weekend we have turned to the MLS.
Our shots on target betting picks
Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes
Joseph Martinez has played 14 matches this season for San Jose Earthquakes, starting in 10 of them. Over those 14 appearances, he has recorded 35 shots, with 23 of them hitting the target. Impressively, 33 of those shots and 21 on target have come during his 10 starts, indicating that when he is in the starting line up, he is a high-volume shooter. Across a total of 838 minutes played, Martinez is averaging a shot roughly every 24 minutes and a shot on target approximately every 36 minutes, which translates to around 3.56 shots and 2.47 shots on target per 90 minutes—an elite level of output for Major League Soccer.
Despite starting on the bench in the most recent match, he still made an impact after being introduced with 30 minutes to go, managing a shot and hitting the target once again. All signs point to him returning to the starting line up for this weekend’s clash against the Portland Timbers.
The matchup itself looks promising. Portland have conceded the third-highest number of shots in their home games this season, while San Jose Earthquakes rank third in total shots taken on the road. That combination sets the stage for a high-shot-volume game, which suits Martinez’s playing style and shot frequency perfectly.
- Best Bet: Joseph Martinez over 1.5 shots on target at 2.9 with William Hill
Columbus Crew vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Steven Moreira has been a consistent presence in the Columbus Crew line up this season, starting 13 of their 14 MLS matches and coming off the bench in the other. While primarily deployed as a centre-back, he has shown a willingness to join the attack when the opportunity arises, registering nine shots and hitting the target four times. His attacking involvement has increased in recent weeks, with five efforts on goal and two on target across his last five appearances. He has also chipped in with a goal and two assists this season, underlining his ability to make an impact in the final third despite his defensive role.
This weekend, Columbus face a difficult home match against Western Conference leaders Vancouver Whitecaps, who are defensively solid and concede just under nine shots per game on the road. However, Columbus average around 16 shots per home game and pose a significant threat from set-pieces — an area where Moreira is often a target. While chances may be limited from open play, his presence on attacking set-pieces gives him a decent opportunity to register a shot.
- Best Bet: Steven Moreira over 0.5 shots at 3.1 with Paddy
Austin FC vs New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls travel to Austin FC this weekend looking to continue their strong run of form, and one player who stands out from a betting perspective is Cameron Harper. While officially listed as a defender, Harper has recently been deployed in far more attacking roles, and the shift is starting to pay dividends — both for the team and bettors.
In last weekend’s 2-0 win over Atlanta United, Harper started as an attacking midfielder, played 72 minutes, and contributed a goal and an assist. That performance not only helped secure three points but also makes it highly likely he retains his place in the starting XI. Importantly for shot-based markets, it also highlights how his attacking responsibilities have evolved in recent weeks.
Across his four away starts in MLS this season, Harper has registered 3, 2, 2, and 3 shots — hitting 2+ in all four, with an average of 2.5 shots per game. Even before being pushed into more advanced areas, he consistently looked to get forward, taking at least one shot in every start this year and recording 2+ efforts in four of his last seven appearances overall.
Austin FC tend to concede space down the flanks and in transition — areas Harper thrives in. His combination of pace, energy, and tactical freedom on the right makes him a constant threat in these situations
- Best Bet: Cameron Harper over 1.5 shots at 2.1 with Betway
Backing Cameron Harper to have two or more shots, Steven Moreira to have at least one shot and Joseph Martinez to register at least two efforts on target can be backed at 11.03 with Betway.
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