In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham Utd
When Nottingham Forest face West Ham at the City Ground this weekend, the set-piece matchup jumps off the page and Nikola Milenkovic looks a strong candidate to test the keeper or at least get a strike away. The Serbian centre-back has been an ever-present for Forest, completing the full 90 minutes in every Premier League match since arriving. While he has not yet registered an attempt this season, that can largely be explained by context rather than any change in role. Forest’s recent opponents, Brentford and Crystal Palace, were among the league’s best at limiting set-piece chances last year. Both ranked in the top four for lowest xGA from dead balls, making it difficult for defenders to get free in the box.
West Ham are a different proposition. Last season they conceded 17.06 xGA from set pieces, a figure that placed them firmly in the weaker half of the division. They have already looked vulnerable in this department during the current campaign, failing to deal with delivery and often second best in aerial duels. That dovetails neatly with Forest’s attacking profile, as they generated 19.68 xG from set plays last season, fifth highest in the Premier League.
Milenkovic’s numbers underline his involvement. He recorded 19 shots and seven on target last season, almost all from set pieces. At roughly half a shot per 90, he is consistently a live threat when Forest win corners. Some bookmakers have shortened to 1/2 for him to register a single shot, but with patience it is still possible to find 1/1, which looks good value given this matchup.
- Best Bet: Nikola Milenkovic over 0.5 shots at 1/1 with Unibet
Leeds Utd vs Newcastle
Dan Burn has been a steady presence in the Newcastle back line, but his threat in the opposition penalty area is just as important when assessing player shot markets. The 6ft 6in defender has long been one of Kieran Trippier’s main targets from corners and free kicks, peeling away to the far post where his size gives him an obvious advantage. That role translated into consistent numbers last season, where Burn registered at least one shot in 18 of his 38 Premier League appearances. A 47% strike rate is significant for a centre-back and means almost one in every two games he is testing the opposition defence.
This season, he has already carried that pattern into his play, recording an effort in the 1-1 draw at Liverpool. His chances will often depend on the opposition, and the next fixture against Leeds looks an ideal opportunity. No side has looked more vulnerable from dead-ball situations so far. Leeds have conceded 12 shots from set pieces in their first two matches, the most in the league, and they also rank bottom for set-piece xGA, meaning the quality of chances given up has been as alarming as the quantity. Arsenal exposed this weakness last weekend, not only dominating aerially but also scoring twice from corners, both through Jurrien Timber, which underlines the scale of the problem.
Burn’s numbers combined with Leeds’ fragility make 1+ shot an attractive angle.
- Best Bet: Dan Burn over 0.5 shots at 5/4 with Unibet
Portsmouth vs Preston North End
Connor Ogilvie has started this season in the same way he finished the last, as a steady defensive presence for Portsmouth who also offers a genuine set-piece threat. In the opening three league games of the new Championship campaign, the left-back has already registered a shot in each, underlining how regularly he gets into shooting positions when Pompey deliver from corners or wide free kicks. That makes it three attempts in three matches, carrying on from what was a promising output in 2024/25.
Last season Ogilvie was ever-present, starting 45 games and playing virtually every available minute. He recorded 20 shots, four on target, and scored once. The bigger story lies in his underlying metrics: he produced around 4.4 xG across the season, with most of that coming from set pieces. That shows he is not simply snatching at half chances but regularly getting on the end of deliveries in areas where goals can be scored. On average he attempted 0.44 shots per 90, hitting 1+ shot in 14 of his 45 appearances (31%).
For a player whose starting position is nominally left-back, and sometimes left-sided centre-back, that strike rate is impressive. The fact he underperformed his expected numbers last season suggests he could have scored more than the single goal he managed. With Portsmouth a well-drilled set-piece side and Ogilvie already showing consistency this season, the 1+ shot market looks a strong angle. At bigger prices, the anytime scorer bet carries interest given his sustained threat.
- Best Bet: Connor Ogilvie over 0.5 shots at 11/10 with Unibet
Combining Connor Ogilvie, Dan Burn and Nikola Milenkovic to have all have a single shot each will give you odds of 8/1 with Unibet
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