In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Norwich City vs Millwall
Josh Sargent is a strong option for two or more shots and at least one shot on target, especially at Carrow Road where his numbers stand up well. He started 15 home games last season, recording 37 shots and 19 on target. He hit at least two shots in 12 of those and registered a shot on target in 11. The combined bet landed in 10 of the 15.
The few misses came with context. He played just 59 minutes against Preston but still managed two shots. He was subbed at half-time against Portsmouth yet scored with his only effort. Against Cardiff, he had two shots but none on target, though he still generated 0.8 xG. The other blanks were against Leeds and Middlesbrough, who limited Norwich across the board.
This is priced at 8/11 with Ladbrokes. While not the biggest price, it compares favourably to Bet365, who have the same bet at 1/2. Adding a goal in the match as a bet builder leg brings it to 5/6, which looks fair considering Norwich’s home scoring record and Sargent’s output. When fit and starting, especially in games where Norwich have a decent attacking foothold, he’s consistently involved and a reliable shot threat.
- Best Bet: Josh Sargent over 1.5 shots & over 0.5 shots on target at 8/11 with Ladbrokes
QPR vs Preston North End
Jimmy Dunne looks a strong outside pick for at least one shot on target when QPR host Preston. The central defender attempted 55 shots across 46 league starts last season, hitting the target in 14 games. That’s a 30% hit rate overall, but there’s a clear pattern: Dunne is a major aerial threat, with 35 of those 55 efforts coming via headers. Almost all of his chances come from set pieces, which makes the matchup here particularly interesting.
Preston conceded the third most big chances in the Championship last season and were especially vulnerable away from home. Only four teams allowed more expected goals from set pieces on the road, and two of those were relegated. Their weakness at defending deliveries into the box has been a recurring issue, and it plays directly into Dunne’s strengths.
QPR averaged just under five corners per game last season and are likely to target Preston’s back line in the air, particularly with Dunne staying forward for extended phases in games where they’re level or chasing a goal. He’s already had shots on target this season from similar situations, and this kind of match gives him a decent chance to do it again.
While this is not a high-percentage play, the price usually reflects that. If you can get 2/1 or better, Dunne for 1+ shot on target stands out as a value-driven longshot backed by his role, shot profile, and Preston’s vulnerability from set pieces.
- Best Bet: Jimmy Dunne over 0.5 shots on target at 2/1 with Bet365
Leicester City vs Sheffield Wednesday
It might seem like an odd selection at first as Caleb Okoli only had four shots in the Premier League last season but there is enough context to make a strong case for him to register 1+ shot on target against Sheffield Wednesday.
Okoli looks set to start under new Leicester manager Marti Cifuentes. He partnered Jannik Vestergaard in the final pre-season friendly against Fiorentina, and many Leicester fans expect that pairing to be the first-choice centre-back duo. When Okoli first joined, he registered a shot in each of his first three starts. Injury disrupted his season after that, but he still finished with four shots and two on target from 12 Premier League starts, including a headed goal at Brighton.
The matchup here adds value. Sheffield Wednesday were one of the Championship’s worst sides at defending set pieces last season, conceding 26.25 xGA from set plays, second only to relegated Plymouth. On the road, they were fifth-worst for set-piece xGA, again ranking in bottom-six territory. That was with a full-strength squad. This season, amid financial problems and a heavily weakened side, they look out of their depth against a Leicester team expected to dominate possession and territory.
With Leicester likely to win plenty of corners and Okoli a consistent aerial target, this bet has a clear path.
- Best Bet: Caleb Okoli over 0.5 shots on target at 5/1 with Unibet
Combining Josh Sargent, Jimmy Dunne and Caleb Okoli all to have a shot on target will give you odds of 11/1 with Bet365.
Further Reading
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