In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Its now five winners from the last six selections, so we are keeping with one pick for this weekend's selections.
Our shots on target betting picks
Man Utd vs Aston Villa
Ian Maatsen is a strong candidate for a 2+ shots bet when he starts, with his attacking involvement from left-back consistently showing up in the data. He has taken 19 shots in the Premier League this season, and 15 of those have come in just nine starts—an average of 1.67 shots per start. Crucially, he’s hit two or more shots in five of those nine starts, making this a well-supported angle.
He has also become more trusted in the starting XI, having started 5 of Aston Villa’s last six Premier League games. That recent pattern makes him increasingly reliable from a team selection standpoint, and if he starts again, the 2+ shots line offers clear value.
The main risk lies in whether he starts or not. In his 19 substitute appearances, he has managed just four shots total, showing a sharp drop-off in involvement. So, while the numbers back the bet strongly when he starts, it is a market that hinges on team news. If he is in the starting line up, 2+ shots is a sharp and well-priced play.
- Best Bet: Ian Maatsen over 1.5 shots at 3.3 with Paddy Power
Premier League final day betting offers
| Bookmaker | Offer | Offer Link |
|---|---|---|
| Betano | Up to £50 in free bets | Get here |
| Talksport Bet | Up to £50 in free bets | Get here |
| Parimatch | 50/1 on Man United to beat Aston Villa | Get here |
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Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
We backed Cucurella to register a shot in each of the past two weeks and he has delivered both times, so I’m happy to go in again. Chelsea head to the City Ground this weekend to face a Nottingham Forest side with an outside shot at Champions League qualification — but they will need to beat Chelsea and hope other results go their way.
Despite their lofty target, Forest are likely to sit deep and invite pressure, as they often do against stronger opposition. That approach has come at a cost defensively: only the relegated three plus Brentford have conceded more shots at home than Forest this season. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight games and are giving up 1.48 xGA on average over that span. They also sit 18th for xPTS in that same period, with just two wins in their last seven — those coming against West Ham and Spurs.
Cucurella's attacking output has ramped up significantly in recent months. While he has made 32 starts this season, 23 of his 24 shots have come in just his last 23 appearances — 22 of them starts — highlighting a clear shift in his role. With Chelsea still chasing European qualification, he has been given more freedom to get forward and is making that attacking license count.
Against a Forest side content to absorb pressure and concede territory, Cucurella should have ample opportunity to get forward and extend his recent streak of shooting involvement.
- Best Bet: Marc Cucurella over 0.5 shots at 2.15 with Ladbrokes
Newcastle vs Everton
Bruno Guimaraes continues to be a key figure in Newcastle United’s midfield, offering a balanced mix of creativity, composure, and attacking threat. Although primarily a deep-lying playmaker, Guimaraes frequently pushes forward to support attacks, often arriving late into the box or finding space at the edge of it to test the goalkeeper.
This season, he has taken 44 shots across 37 appearances, with 12 hitting the target—a shot accuracy of 27%. While not among the most prolific shooters, his attempts typically come from calculated positions rather than speculative efforts, underlining his football intelligence. His five goals this season represent a solid return given his deeper midfield role and the nature of his shot profile.
Notably, Guimaraes has become more attack-minded in recent weeks. Over his last seven league matches, he has taken 13 shots—nearly 30% of his season total—highlighting an increased willingness to influence the final third more directly. At St James’ Park, he has taken 25 shots in 18 home appearances, including nine in his last four, showing a clear trend of rising output on home soil.
This match is crucial for Newcastle, who need a positive result to secure Champions League qualification. It's a full house at St James’ Park, where the team has been strong all season (W12-D2-L4), scoring an average of 2.22 goals and registering 15.5 shots per game. In contrast, Everton have nothing left to play for, with their emotional farewell to Goodison Park last week marking the end of their season’s real focus.
- Best Bet: Bruno Guimaraes over 1.5 shots on target at 2.75 with Unibet
Backing Ian Maatsen and Bruno Guimaraes to both have 2+ shots and Marc Cucurella to register a shot can be backed at 12.71 with Ladbrokes.
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