In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Cardiff City vs Peterborough
Yousef Salech is a strong contender to hit at least two shots on target when Cardiff face Peterborough.
The Danish striker finished last season in excellent form. In his final four appearances of the 2024–25 Championship campaign, he scored three goals from 17 shots, with seven hitting the target. That run included a brace against Norwich on the final day and showed how well he was adapting to the league. He averaged over four shots and nearly two shots on target per 90 minutes across those games, with a combined xG of 2.2 and consistent involvement in Cardiff’s attack.
Across the season as a whole, Salech made 20 appearances (14 starts), scoring eight goals and registering 19 shots on target from 44 total attempts. Crucially, 39 of those shots and 15 of the on-target efforts came in his starts, where he returned six goals. That gives him a strong per-90 shooting profile when starting, with high volume and reliable shot placement.
Peterborough, meanwhile, look like early candidates for a difficult season. They’ve lost key players over the summer and have question marks at both ends of the pitch. They conceded 45 goals in away games last season – the second-highest total in the league – and rarely looked defensively solid on the road.
With Salech’s late-season momentum, clear shot output, and a favourable matchup against vulnerable opposition, backing him to record at least two shots on target makes strong appeal.
- Best Bet: Yousef Salech over 1.5 shots on target at 11/8 with Ladbrokes
Stockport County vs Bolton Wanderers
Ollie Norwood is not the first name most would associate with the shots market, but his form at the back end of last season suggests he's a strong value bet for 2+ shots going into the new campaign.
Across the 2024–25 season, Norwood averaged just over one shot per 90 minutes, finishing with 35 attempts in 3,045 minutes of football. That output reflected his usual role as a deep-lying midfielder, typically tasked with controlling possession rather than getting forward. But that role shifted slightly towards the end of the season, and so did his output.
In Stockport’s final six matches, five of which were must-win games in their promotion push, Norwood attempted 14 shots, averaging 2.3 per match. He also scored three times, all from the penalty spot, and was far more active in the final third. Whether that was tactical or simply a case of him stepping up in big moments, the trend is notable. He had 3+ shots in three of those last six games and looked far more assertive when Stockport were on the front foot.
That kind of involvement is likely to continue with Stockport one of the promotion favourites this season. They were excellent at Edgeley Park last term, winning 16 of 23 home matches and scoring 42 goals with only Birmingham, who ran away with the title, managed more. Dave Challinor’s side play proactive, attack-minded football at home, and Norwood's role in that build-up play has become more aggressive, particularly against teams who give up space around the edge of the box.
Bolton, Stockport’s opening opponents, were unconvincing on the road last season. They lost 10 of their 23 away games and conceded 38 goals which was the second-worst record among top-half finishers. They struggled to defend transitions and allowed too many shots from midfield zones, which suits Norwood’s current profile.
With confidence high, the team in form, and Norwood's late-season numbers showing a clear uptick in attacking output, the value in him registering at least two shots looks strong, especially against a Bolton side who often left themselves open away from home
- Best Bet: Ollie Norwood over 1.5 shots at 7/4 with Paddy
Luton Town vs AFC Wimbledon
Nahki Wells looks a strong bet to register two or more shots on target when Luton Town face AFC Wimbledon on Friday night live on Sky.
The 34-year-old has dropped down from the Championship to League One this summer after five and a half seasons at Bristol City. Last season, he made 28 starts and took 57 shots, with 25 on target, an average of 0.89 SoT per start in a far stronger division. And his output was not padded by early-season volume. In his 14 home starts, he hit two or more shots in eight of them, facing sides like Sunderland, Portsmouth, and West Brom, who generally defended much better than the sides he'll be up against in the third tier.
Wells brings sharp movement, proven finishing, and a knack for finding space in and around the box. Even when Bristol City were not at their best, he remained a regular outlet, contributing 10 goals and four assists last season. His xG (9.0) and xAG (2.2) were consistent with his end product, showing a striker still capable of getting into dangerous positions regularly.
Friday nights match-up is ideal. Luton are one of the favourites for promotion, with a squad full of top-end League One quality and attacking depth. Wimbledon, by contrast, are among the favourites for relegation and have looked vulnerable throughout pre-season, especially when defending inside their own box.
Given the likely one-sided nature of this game, Wells should get multiple opportunities to shoot. In a side expected to dominate possession and create high volumes of chances, he will not need many touches to rack up shots on target. Against a Wimbledon side likely to concede space and struggle to deal with movement in behind, Wells has every chance of clearing this line with room to spare.
- Best Bet: Nahki Wells over 1.5 shots on target at 11/10 with Bet365
Backing Ollie Norwood to have at least two efforts at goal along with Nihki Wells and Yousef Salech to both have at least two shots on target can be backed at 10.32 with Ladbrokes.
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