In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Preston North End vs Leicester City
Bilal El Khannouss looks a strong candidate to register at least one shot on target when Leicester face Preston. The midfielder delivered one of his most productive attacking performances of the season in last weekend’s 2-1 victory over Sheffield Wednesday. He recorded five shots, one on target, set up two goals, and posted 0.6 xG, showing a willingness to get into shooting positions and a threat both as a finisher and creator.
That display came as part of a dominant Leicester attacking performance. The Foxes produced 13 shots on target, created six big chances, generated 2.5 xG and had 24 touches in the opposition box. They maintained pressure throughout and looked capable of opening Wednesday up almost at will. With Leicester in this kind of attacking rhythm, players in advanced positions like El Khannouss are likely to continue getting opportunities to work the goalkeeper.
Preston’s recent defensive numbers also point towards chances being available. In their 1-1 draw with QPR, they allowed 13 shots and three on target. While that is not disastrous in terms of shots on target conceded, the overall volume shows opponents are able to get into shooting positions regularly. That was against a QPR side that generally produces modest attacking numbers, so facing a Leicester team in full flow is a different prospect entirely.
Given El Khannouss’s attacking involvement, confidence from last weekend and the quality of Leicester’s supply lines, the line for one or more shots on target looks well within reach and could offer value in this fixture.
- Best Bet: Bilal El Khannouss over 0.5 shots on target at 37/20 with Unibet
Watford vs Queens Park Rangers
Imran Louza looks a strong option to register two or more shots when Watford host QPR. The midfielder had two attempts in last weekend’s 1-0 loss at Charlton, generating 0.13 xG in a game where Watford managed 12 shots and 1.16 xG overall. That performance was in keeping with his output from last season, when he produced at least two shots in seven of his 17 Championship home starts.
One of those came in this exact fixture, as Louza recorded three efforts and one on target in last season’s meeting with QPR at Vicarage Road. That was part of a campaign where he had a shot in 20 of his 30 starts, showing a consistent willingness to get attempts away from midfield.
The arrival of Hector Kyprianou in the holding role has further encouraged Louza to push forward, arriving in advanced positions to shoot from the edge of the area or when breaking into the box late.
Given his historical success against QPR, last weekend’s activity, and the tactical freedom afforded by Kyprianou’s presence, Louza to register two or more shots looks a realistic target in front of the home crowd.
- Best Bet: Imran Louza over 1.5 shots at 43/20 with Unibet
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford
Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo both look strong candidates to register at least one shot when Nottingham Forest host Brentford. Forest’s attacking threat from set pieces was a key part of their game last season, ranking fifth in the league for xG generated from dead-ball situations. That strength is enhanced by the presence of two defenders who regularly get on the end of deliveries.
Milenkovic recorded 29 shots in total last season, with 10 of those coming in 18 home appearances. His aerial ability makes him a natural target at corners and free-kicks, and Forest’s approach of committing numbers forward for set pieces gives him regular opportunities to shoot. Even in tight, low-scoring games, his positioning in the opposition box from restarts ensures he remains a threat.
Murillo produced 25 shots across the campaign, including 13 in 18 home matches, showing his consistency in getting efforts away at the City Ground. His involvement is not limited to headers from corners, Murillo is also trusted to take direct free-kicks, adding another route for him to register an attempt. He is comfortable striking from long range, which means he can produce a shot even without Forest forcing multiple corners.
Brentford arrive in a weakened state, having lost key players and their manager over the summer. That instability increases the likelihood that Forest can generate pressure and win set pieces in advanced areas. With both Milenkovic and Murillo proven to contribute in these situations, the line for each to record at least one shot looks realistic. Given Forest’s set-piece record and Brentford’s unsettled squad, both bets carry solid potential in what could be a cagey contest decided by fine margins.
- Best Bet: Nikola Milenkovic over 0.5 at 21/20 with Sporting Index
- Best Bet: Murillo over 0.5 at 7/5 with Unibet
Combining Murillo to have at least one shot, Imran Louza to have two or more shots and Bilal El Khannouss to registered a shot on target will give you odds of 20/1 with Unibet
Further Reading
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