Friday night’s Championship fixture sees Wrexham host Coventry City at the Racecourse Ground in what looks a major test for the home side against the league leaders.
Wrexham’s first campaign back in the second tier has been steady enough in results but less convincing in performance. They sit in the lower half of the table with a record of W3-D5-L4, but the underlying numbers highlight familiar weaknesses.
At home, they have taken just six points from six matches and rank in the bottom seven for xGA, shots on target conceded and shots in the box conceded. That vulnerability has shown in results, with ten goals conceded at home and only one clean sheet.
Their recent process data tells a similar story. Over the last eight games they have averaged 1.03 xG for and 0.95 xGA, while across the last four their xPTS has dropped below par. They can compete for spells but often allow too many clear chances and rely heavily on set pieces or counterattacks for their threat.
Coventry arrive in outstanding form and are unbeaten after twelve games (W8-D4-L0, 34-9 GD). They top the league for xG ratio (72.7%) and xPTS (16.4) across the last eight matches, and have been especially strong away from home. In six away trips they have scored 18 goals and conceded just six, showing the balance between attacking power and defensive organisation that defines Frank Lampard’s side.
Confidence around the club is understandably high. Their control of games both in possession and territory has been consistent, and with their attacking options in top form, Coventry look well placed to extend their unbeaten start. Wrexham will need to improve significantly defensively to avoid another difficult evening against the division’s most complete side.
How the bookies view it: Sky Blues favourites
Coventry City are clear favourites to win this Championship fixture. The visitors are priced at 19/20, giving them an implied win probability of around 51%, reflecting their dominant form and superior attacking metrics. The draw is 14/5, implying a 26% chance, while Wrexham are also 14/5, which suggests only a 26% probability of pulling off an upset against the league leaders.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 4/5, equating to an implied probability of around 56%, while both teams to score is 7/10, or roughly 59%. The pricing points to a game that should be open and attack-minded, but one where Coventry are strongly fancied to dictate proceedings.
Head to Head: Seven goal thriller in last meeting
The recent head-to-head history between these two clubs is limited but entertaining. Their last meeting came in the FA Cup third round in January 2023, when Coventry edged a thrilling 4-3 victory at home.
That match summed up both sides’ attacking intent and defensive looseness, with seven goals, 27 total shots, and multiple big chances at each end. It was a reminder that when these teams meet, control often gives way to chaos. Wrexham took an early lead that day and twice threatened an upset before Coventry’s quality told late on. With both sides still built around front-foot football, another open and high-tempo encounter feels likely on Friday.
Players to watch: Thomas-Asante a constant threat
Brandon Thomas-Asante looks a strong selection in the to score or assist market for Coventry’s visit to Wrexham. The forward has started 11 games this season and produced a goal contribution in eight of them, scoring nine and providing three assists. His consistency has been central to Frank Lampard’s attacking setup, where he continues to be trusted in both wide and central roles.
He averages just over three shots per game and around one on target, backed by an xG of roughly 7.8, which aligns closely with his actual returns. Coventry’s approach keeps him high up the pitch and involved in most of their best attacking moments, and it shows in the team data as they lead the league with 34 goals in 12 matches and have scored 18 times in six away games.
Wrexham’s defensive process adds further weight to the bet. They rank in the bottom seven at home for xGA, shots on target conceded, and shots in the box conceded, and have kept only one clean sheet at the Racecourse Ground all season.
With Coventry’s attack among the most productive in the division and Thomas-Asante directly involved in the majority of their goals, the numbers point clearly to another contribution on Saturday whether it’s a goal or an assist.
Predicted line-ups
Wrexham (5-3-2): Burton, Cleworth, Coady, Thomason, Barnett, Longman, Rathbone, O’Brien, Dobson, Smith, Broadhead
Coventry City (4-2-3-1): Rushworth, van Ewijk, Thomas, Kitching, Dasilva, Grimes, Allen, Sakamoto, Mason-Clark, Thomas-Asante, Wright
Anything else catch the eye?
Coventry’s attacking process makes over 1.5 team goals a logical bet for their trip to Wrexham. Over the last eight games they have produced 2.62 xG per match, leading the Championship, and their attacking volume is backed by quality with 21 big chances created to only three conceded in that same spell. Their shot profile is elite: high box-touch numbers, strong shot-on-target conversion, and one of the best open-play xG figures in the league.
That consistent attacking threat translates directly to results. Coventry have scored two or more goals in four of their six away games, averaging 3.0 goals per match on the road. Even in tighter contests, their underlying data stays impressive, regularly posting over 2.0 xG. Lampard’s side sustain pressure well, generating long spells of possession and creating repeat shooting opportunities.
Wrexham’s defensive process, by contrast, points in the opposite direction. Across their last four games they have allowed 1.15 xGA per match and across the season at home they have faced nine big chances to just one created. Their broader season picture is just as concerning as they’ve conceded in ten of twelve matches overall and have struggled to limit opposition quality inside the box.
While Wrexham have shown fight, the data shows that stronger attacking sides consistently open them up. Their home xGA and shots conceded metrics place them among the worst seven in the division, and they’ve failed to keep things tight against top-half opponents.
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