The EFL Trophy gets underway in Northern Group A this Tuesday night as Wigan Athletic host Salford City at the Brick Community Stadium. Both clubs enter the competition from different ends of the EFL ladder, but with similar goals in mind: to manage squad depth and offer opportunities to fringe and youth players.
Wigan’s August was mixed. They have taken eight points from their first six League One matches, sitting mid-table with a fairly balanced record of two wins, two draws and two defeats. Underlying numbers highlight their openness with seven goals conceded and 7.42 xPTS suggest they are neither overachieving nor underachieving, but the performances lack consistency. Their EFL Cup run was positive, knocking out Notts County and Stockport with narrow wins. In terms of transfers, Ryan Lowe’s squad has seen steady churn with younger players pushing closer to the first team.
Salford come into the Trophy off a stuttering start in League Two. They have ten points from six games, though their underlying numbers are concerning. A total xPTS of 3.41 ranks among the lowest in the division and non-penalty xG figures show they are creating under one expected goal per game while conceding close to two. Karl Robinson has spoken about bedding in new faces after several summer departures, but defensive fragility remains a theme.
With Wolves U21s and Stockport also in the group, this opener offers both Wigan and Salford a chance to reset after mixed league form and give their younger players vital minutes.
How the bookies view it: Host favourites
Wigan are priced at 23/20 (46.5% implied) to win at home, with the draw 13/5 (27.8%) and Salford 41/17 (29.3%), showing the market makes the hosts slight favourites but still gives the visitors a fair chance given both sides are likely to rotate. Goals are also expected, with over 2.5 at 19/20 (51.3%) and both teams to score shorter at 4/5 (55.6%), which underlines that bookmakers see an open contest where both teams are likely to find the net.
Head to Head: First meeting between the two sides
First time these two sides have faced each other in a competitive game.
Players to watch: Latics look to Wright
Callum Wright looks well positioned to keep producing shots and is due a goal. He has started five of Wigan’s six league matches, operating as an advanced midfielder and averaging just under two shots per ninety minutes. In those games he has taken nine attempts with three on target, and he has managed at least one shot in four of his five league starts. His busiest outing came against Stockport when he fired three efforts and tested the keeper once. Wright also shows a willingness to get into the box from midfield, adding a couple of crosses and tackles each match which underline his work rate and involvement. With steady minutes and confidence building, he looks a strong bet for shots again.
Predicted line-ups
Wigan: (3-1-4-2): Watson, Aimson, Carragher, Fox, Adeeko, Sessegnon, Murray, Weir, Robinson, Smith, Wright
Salford (3-5-2): Young, Ayina, Turton, Edwards, Malcolm, Garbutt, Austerfield, Butcher, N’Mai, Stockton, Siri
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score looks a strong play when Wigan face Salford in the Trophy. The main reason is the likely rotation, with both managers expected to rest first-choice players and turn to fringe options and youth prospects. That tends to produce more open games with defensive lapses.
Statistically, both sides point towards both teams to score. Wigan’s League One campaign has averaged 2.16 total goals per game, and they have only managed one clean sheet in their last five outings. They concede on average 6.2 shots in the box per match, and while they also average 1.48 non-penalty xG for, they allow 1.26 against, signalling matches are usually contested at both ends.
Salford’s defensive record is even shakier. They concede close to 10 shots per game, with 9.8 of those inside the box which is among the worst figures in League Two. Their opponents have already generated 1.99 xGA per 90 minutes against them. In terms of attacking threat, Salford are not prolific, but they average just under five shots on target across their last three fixtures and have scored in four of their last five games in all competitions.
Rotation means younger forwards and fringe attackers will get chances, and against re-shaped back lines that often leads to goals at both ends. Given the underlying numbers and context, both teams to score is a bet with strong justification here.
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