West Ham host Newcastle at the London Stadium on Sunday in a meeting between two sides searching for stability. For West Ham, the problems run deep.
They have made their worst ever start to a Premier League season, earning just four points from nine matches, and could suffer eight defeats in their opening ten league games for the first time in their history. The early signs under Nuno Espirito Santo have been alarming, both in results and performance data.
Across Nuno’s four league games in charge, the Hammers sit bottom of the Premier League for xG ratio (0.70 for vs 2.22 against), bottom for non-penalty xG ratio, and 19th for xG from open play. They have created just 0.33 xG from open play across that run the lowest figure in the division. Defensively they have been equally poor, conceding more xGA from set pieces than any other side. No team has allowed more shots inside their box or more touches in their defensive area over the same period.
Newcastle, meanwhile, remain strong in their process despite a poor away record. They are winless in their last seven Premier League away games (D4-L3), failing to score in four, but their underlying control is clear. Eddie Howe’s team rank fifth in the league for away xG ratio (1.13 for, 0.80 against), have kept three clean sheets in four away fixtures, and sit ninth for away xPTS.
They arrive in London off a solid 2-1 win over Fulham and a consistent defensive base that allows few big chances. While their away results have lagged behind their performances, the contrast with West Ham’s collapse is striking. Nuno’s side are short of confidence and cohesion, while Newcastle look the more balanced and functional side ahead of Sunday’s game.
How the bookies view it: Toon Army favourites
Newcastle head into the weekend as clear favourites at 4/6, which implies a 60% chance of victory, while West Ham are priced at 19/4 (around 17%) to claim their second league win of the season. The draw is available at 17/5, suggesting only a 23% probability of a stalemate. The market reflects both teams’ current trajectories: Newcastle remain well-structured despite a poor away record, while West Ham’s underlying data under Nuno Espírito Santo has been the worst in the league.
Goals are expected but not guaranteed. Over 2.5 goals trades at 4/5 (implied 55%) and both teams to score is the same price, indicating bookmakers see a competitive but not chaotic game. Newcastle’s away matches have been tight with none of their four on the road this season have gone above three goals, while West Ham have averaged just 0.7 xG per match under Nuno. With those contrasting trends, the odds suggest Newcastle are fancied to edge another low-scoring encounter, likely built on defensive control and set-piece superiority rather than an open, high-tempo contest.
Head to Head: Recent meetings have brought goals
Recent clashes between West Ham and Newcastle have tended to deliver goals and unpredictability. The last nine Premier League meetings have produced a combined 34 goals, averaging almost 3.8 per game, with both teams scoring in six of those fixtures.
Newcastle have generally had the upper hand, winning four of the last seven league encounters, including a 1-0 victory at the London Stadium in March. West Ham’s only success in that run came with a 2-0 win at St James’ Park in November 2024, but they have since failed to win any of their last three home games against the Magpies.
Newcastle’s emphatic 5-1 win in April 2023 remains a standout result and a reminder of their attacking threat when the Hammers lose structure. Overall, the fixture’s history leans Newcastle’s way, and recent performances under Nuno Espirito Santo suggest the home side may again struggle to contain their visitors.
Players to watch: Set piece woe for Hammers
Malick Thiaw looks a solid pick to register a shot against West Ham this weekend. The Newcastle centre-back has quietly built a consistent record in front of goal since breaking into the side, recording six shots across his last five Premier League starts, including efforts against Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Brighton, and Fulham.
That threat becomes even more appealing given how vulnerable West Ham are at defending set pieces. They have conceded nine goals from dead-ball situations, the most in the league, while also allowing 52 shots and an xGA of 5.38 from those situations. No side in the Premier League has faced more. Recent matches highlight the problem clearly as Joe Rodon scored for Leeds, Michael Keane netted for Everton, Micky Van de Ven for Spurs, and both Brentford centre-backs had shots. In total, defenders have already managed 24 shots and five goals against West Ham this season.
With Kieran Trippier’s delivery and Newcastle’s aerial strength, Thiaw should again find himself in shooting positions from corners or free-kicks. Given the volume of opportunities West Ham concede to opposition defenders, the data strongly supports a bet on Malick Thiaw to have 1+ shot which looks a realistic and well-backed angle in a game that suits Newcastle’s set-piece strengths perfectly.
Predicted line-ups
West Ham (4-1-4-1): Areola, Wan-Bissaka, Todibo, Kilman, Diouf, Magassa, Bowen, Fernandes, Paqueta, Summerville, Wilson
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Schar, Burn, Guimaraes, Miley, Joelinton, Murphy, Woltemade, Gordon
Anything else catch the eye?
Newcastle’s strength lies in control. Away from home, they rank fifth in the Premier League for xG ratio (58.5%) and have allowed just 0.80 xGA per match which is the second-best defensive record on the road. Their matches are typically tight, with none of their four away games this season going over 2.5 goals. They are yet to concede a big chance on the road and rank ninth for away xPTS, a reflection of their solid, low-risk approach.
West Ham, by contrast, are trending in the opposite direction. Under Nuno Espirito Santo, they have produced the weakest underlying process in the division. Over the last four league games, West Ham are bottom for xG ratio (0.70 for vs 2.22 against), bottom for non-penalty xG ratio, and bottom for big-chance ratio, creating just one and conceding six. The fans have been revolting against the ownership of the club and there is a toxic atmosphere throughout the club.
Newcastle’s well-structured defence should thrive against a side struggling to generate shots or sustained possession. They have faced only 2.75 shots on target per away game and limited opponents to fewer than ten shots in three of four on the road.
While Newcastle’s away goals have been scarce with only one scored in four, the expected data suggests improvement is due. Against such a vulnerable West Ham side, they are capable of controlling the game without it turning high scoring.
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