Venezuela face Bolivia in a crucial World Cup qualifier, with both sides still in the hunt for a playoff place. Venezuela come into this match with a record of W3-D6-L5, scoring 13 goals and conceding 17. Their standout strength is at home, where they are unbeaten with a W3-D4-L0 record and have conceded just two goals in seven games. Despite that solid defensive platform, they have only one win in their last 10 qualifiers, pointing to a lack of cutting edge in attack.
Bolivia have a W4-D2-L8 record overall, scoring 14 goals but conceding 30. Away from home they’ve struggled badly, going W1-D0-L6 and scoring just four times. Two of those goals came in their only away win, a 2-1 result in Chile. On average, they are conceding 3.29 goals per away game and have allowed 2 or more goals in 5 of 7 matches. They have not kept a clean sheet on the road during this campaign.
Bolivia's underlying numbers underline their issues. They are allowing an average of 8.29 shots on target per away game, while creating just 1.71 themselves. In 4 of their 7 away matches, they have managed one or fewer shots on target, showing how toothless they have been on their travels.
This looks like a strong opportunity for Venezuela to secure a rare win.
How the bookies view it: Home win with few goals
Venezuela are priced at 1.42 to win, the draw is 4.5, and Bolivia are out at 9.00. These odds reflect the bookmakers’ strong confidence in a home victory, driven by Venezuela’s unbeaten record at home and Bolivia’s poor form on the road. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.23, suggesting the market expects a relatively low-scoring game, while both teams to score is 2.55, reinforcing doubts about Bolivia’s ability to threaten in attack.
Head to head: Close contest
Venezuela and Bolivia have faced each other 42 times in official competitions. Bolivia holds a slight edge with 16 wins to Venezuela's 14, while 12 matches have ended in draws. In terms of goals, Bolivia has scored 86, and Venezuela has netted 65.
In their most recent encounter in September 2024, Bolivia secured a commanding 4-0 home victory over Venezuela in a World Cup qualifier. However, Venezuela has been dominant in home fixtures against Bolivia, remaining unbeaten in their last eight home meetings, with six wins and two draws. Notably, Venezuela achieved a 5-0 victory in Maturin during the 2018 qualifiers and a 4-1 win in Barinas in January 2022.
Overall, while Bolivia has the historical advantage, Venezuela's strong home performances suggest they have the upper hand when playing on their own turf.
Predicted line-ups
Venezuela will be without Yangel Herrera, who is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Edson Castillo has been called up to replace him in the squad and is a likely option to feature in midfield. Bolivia are also missing key players, with Ramiro Vaca suspended after failing a doping test during the 2025 Copa Libertadores, and Gabriel Montano serving a two-year ban.
Venezuela (4-2-3-1):
Romo; Gonzalez, Ferraresi, Angel, Aramburu; Castillo, Martinez; Savarino, Soteldo, Martinez; Rondon
Bolivia (4-3-3): Viscarra; Sagredo, Morales, Haquin, Medina; Cuellar, Villamil, Paniagua; Fernandez, Algaranaz, Terceros
Players to watch: Rondon to be constant threat
Salomon Rondon has registered 30 shots in this World Cup qualifying campaign, with 11 of those on target. He has had a shot on target in eight of his 14 appearances, and his impact has been especially strong at home. He has played seven home games, registering a shot on target in six of them and recording two or more shots on target in three. Twenty-three of his 30 shots and nine of his 11 shots on target have come on home soil, where he has also scored all four of his goals in the campaign. As Venezuela’s all-time leading scorer and the focal point of their attack, Rondon remains a consistent threat, particularly in front of home support. With Bolivia conceding on average over 8 shots on target per away fixture, he is well placed to be a decisive factor again.
Anything else catch the eye?
Bolivia have been poor this campaign with a W4-D2-L8 record and 30 goals conceded across those 14 matches. Overall, their games have averaged 3.14 goals, but if you remove their matches against the current top four teams in the group, the average goals per game in their remaining qualifiers drops to 2.75. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw against Uruguay, though it came at home, where they are generally more competitive.
Venezuela, meanwhile, have been solid at home, going W3-D4-L0 and conceding just two goals across those seven games. Their matches have been tight, with all seven home qualifiers producing just nine goals combined. The only time they scored more than once came in a 3-0 win over Chile, who currently sit bottom of the group.
Given Venezuela's low-scoring home pattern and Bolivia's limited threat away from home, a bet on Venezuela to win and under 4 goals looks well supported by the data. It covers all of Venezuela's most likely winning score lines — such as 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 — and avoids relying on Bolivia to contribute on the scoresheet, which they have consistently failed to do on the road.
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