Mamelodi Sundowns take on Ulsan HD FC in the opening match of Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup, with the South African champions looking to cause an upset.
Sundowns were beaten 3–2 on aggregate in the CAF Champions League final by Pyramids FC earlier this month, but their domestic campaign was dominant. They won the South African Premiership by 12 points, finishing with a record of W24-D1-L3, scoring 65 goals and conceding just 13. They found the net in 26 of their 28 matches and kept 17 clean sheets, underlining their consistency and balance at both ends of the pitch.
In contrast, Ulsan enter the tournament with far less momentum. The two-time AFC Champions League winners crashed out of this year’s continental competition with six defeats in seven group matches and have lost all four of their previous Club World Cup games. Domestically, they sit third in K League 1 with a record of W8-D5-L6, scoring 23 and conceding 19. They have kept eight clean sheets and failed to score in only four of their 19 matches, but they have looked shaky against stronger opponents.
Miguel Cardoso’s 4-3-3 system is built around a front three that delivered heavily in domestic competition, with all of Mamelodi Sundowns’ starting forwards among the top scorers in the South African Premiership. Lucas Ribeiro Costa topped the charts with 16 goals, followed closely by Iqraam Rayners with 14, while Arthur Sales contributed eight of his own. Together, they form a fluid and clinical attacking unit that will likely test an Ulsan defence prone to lapses in high-pressure games.
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How the bookies view it: Ulsan slight favourites
Bookmakers make Ulsan narrow favourites at odds of 7/4, with Mamelodi Sundowns slightly longer at 9/5 and the draw priced at 47/20. Both teams to score is available at 17/20, while over 2.5 goals can be backed at 23/20, suggesting expectations of a tight but open contest.
Head to Head: First meeting
Ulsan HD FC and Mamelodi Sundowns have never faced each other in a competitive fixture before—so there is no head‑to‑head record to report.
Predicted line-ups
Ulsan HD FC (3-5-2): Jo; Kang, Seo, Kim, Ludwigson; Jung, Um, Bojanic; Lacava, Heo, Farias
Mamelodi Sundowns (4-3-3): Williams; Mudau, Kekana, Lebusa, Modiba; Allende, Mokoena, Adams; Ribeiro, Rayners, Sales
Players to watch: Costa the main threat
Lucas Ribeiro Costa is Mamelodi Sundowns’ key attacking threat and a major reason they enter the Club World Cup with confidence. The Brazilian forward finished as the top scorer in the South African Premiership, netting 17 goals and providing four assists during the 2024–25 campaign. Across 27 starts, he has taken 70 shots, with 32 of those on target — a strong output that underlines both his attacking intent and efficiency in the final third. He registered two or more shots in 24 of his 27 starts and hit at least one shot on target in 21 of those appearances, making him a consistent and reliable attacking outlet.
Ribeiro Costa typically operates from the left side of the front three in Miguel Cardoso’s 4-3-3 system but often drifts centrally to receive between the lines or attack the box directly. He links up well with midfielders Marcelo Allende and Teboho Mokoena, and his movement often creates space for fellow forwards Iqraam Rayners and Arthur Sales. As Sundowns’ primary penalty taker and most prolific finisher, he is an excellent bet for shots and shots on target.
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Mamelodi Sundowns in the draw no bet market offers solid value in what is expected to be a closely contested opener against Ulsan. While the match is priced fairly evenly, Sundowns bring superior recent form, greater attacking cohesion, and a much stronger defensive record into this fixture. They won 24 of their 28 domestic league matches, scoring in 26 and keeping 17 clean sheets, and arrive battle-hardened from a narrow CAF Champions League final loss.
Ulsan, by contrast, were eliminated early from the AFC Champions League after losing six of seven group matches, and they have never won a Club World Cup match in four previous attempts. Although they are difficult to break down at their best, they lack the cutting edge Sundowns have in abundance with Ribeiro, Rayners, and Sales leading the line.
With the draw no bet option, you get protection against a stalemate while still backing the more consistent and dangerous side. Given the minimal difference in outright odds, the DNB approach on Sundowns is a calculated, low-risk way to side with the better team.
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