Tottenham face Chelsea at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday evening in a London derby that feels like a measure of where both sides truly stand. The numbers behind their seasons tell a more complex story than the league table alone.
Spurs have taken 17 points from nine matches (W5-D2-L2), already matching their win total from the final 26 games under Ange Postecoglou last season. They have been far more efficient this time around, particularly in front of goal, scoring 17 and conceding just seven.
The balance looks improved, though the data suggests some soft spots. Across the last eight games, Spurs rank mid-table for xPTS and are conceding more big chances than expected for a team with their defensive record. They have allowed the eighth-highest number of big chances overall this season, showing that opponents are still finding ways through their back line.
Chelsea arrive in more uncertain shape. They have won just two of their last six Premier League matches (W2-D1-L3) and have already lost three of their last five, more than they did in their previous sixteen combined. The broader trend is worrying: over the last eight games, they rank only 12th for xPTS and second-worst for big chances conceded. Set pieces have also been a recurring issue, with the fourth-highest xG conceded from those situations in the league.
Chelsea’s head-to-head record provides their main encouragement. They have beaten Spurs in ten of the last thirteen meetings and have won five of six visits to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium which is more than any other side. But Tottenham’s form, home strength, and Chelsea’s defensive fragility make this a far less predictable fixture than history suggests.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Tottenham are 9/5 to win at BOYLE Sports, which implies a 35% chance of victory, with the draw at 13/5 (28%) and Chelsea narrowly favoured at 8/5 (38%).
Also at BOYLE Sports, both teams to score is 3/5, suggesting a 62% likelihood, while over 2.5 goals is 8/11, equivalent to around a 58% chance.
The market clearly expects an open contest, and the data supports that view. Tottenham have scored in eight of nine league matches and continue to play with a front-foot style that leaves space in behind.
With both sides attacking freely but giving up quality chances, the odds accurately reflect the likelihood of another end-to-end, high-scoring London derby.
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Head to Head: Chelsea hold the upper hand
That head-to-head record shows how one-sided this fixture has been in recent years. Across the last 20 meetings in all competitions, Chelsea have won 13, drawn four, and lost just three, scoring 34 goals and conceding 17. That’s a goal difference of +17 and an average differential of +0.85 per match.
Tottenham’s only victory in the last 13 Premier League encounters came in February 2023, a 2-0 home win, while Chelsea have since won four straight league meetings, including both fixtures last season (4-1 and 1-0).
Historically, Chelsea have also enjoyed remarkable success at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, winning five of six league visits which is more than any other away team. Despite that dominance, the current data suggests the gap between the sides has narrowed, with both entering this match in inconsistent form and posting mid-table underlying metrics.
Players to watch: Micky at it again
A bet on Micky van de Ven to have 1+ shot on target or 1+ shots looks strong value given the way this match sets up. Chelsea have been repeatedly exposed by opposition centre-backs this season, both from set pieces and from simple balls into the box.
In their EFL Cup victory midweek, two of the three goals conceded came from deliveries that their defence failed to clear. Against Nottingham Forest, one centre-back managed three shots on his own. Both Brighton centre-backs recorded attempts when they met Chelsea, as did two of Manchester United’s three central defenders. The only recent side not to see a centre-back have a shot was Liverpool, who are in a poor spell of form.
Chelsea’s underlying data backs up what the eye test shows. They have conceded 6.10 xG from set pieces, the highest in the Premier League, and four goals have already come that way. Tottenham, under Thomas Frank, are one of the division’s most effective sides from dead-ball situations, scoring five set-piece goals so far which is the third-most in the league.
Frank’s set-piece structure, carried over from his time at Brentford, is built around movement and targeted delivery, with players like van de Ven, Kevin Danso and Joao Palhinha regularly attacking the first zone.
Van de Ven himself is a constant aerial presence, taking seven shots this season with six coming from his head. Against a Chelsea team struggling to defend the first ball and second phases, his threat is obvious.
With Pedro Porro and Xavi Simons delivering from both sides, the chances of him registering at least one shot on target or two attempts overall looks high. Given the matchup and Chelsea’s record defending set pieces, it’s a well-supported bet at likely appealing odds.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Vicario, Porro, Danso, van de Ven, Spence, Palhinha, Bentancur, Johnson, Kudus, Simons, Kolo Muani
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez, Gusto, Chalobah, Acheampong, Cucurella, James, Fernandez, Neto, Santos, Garnacho, Pedro
Anything else catch the eye?
Spurs Draw No Bet stands out for Saturday’s meeting with Chelsea, as the underlying process points toward the home side having the more stable platform despite some inconsistencies.
Chelsea’s recent numbers are concerning. Over the last four league games, they sit 19th for xPTS and 18th for non-penalty xG ratio. Their defensive structure has collapsed in that period, conceding more big chances than any other Premier League side and giving away the fourth-highest xG from set pieces. Those lapses have been punished with three defeats in the last five and just two wins in six underline their loss of control.
By contrast, Spurs remain more efficient in both boxes. Despite ranking 13th for xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio in the same four-game span, their finishing and set-piece output have kept results strong. Their shot and shots-on-target volumes are more consistent, and they rank among the league’s top sides for converting high-quality chances.
Tottenham’s xG and SOT ratios remain comfortably better than Chelsea’s, and their home process with three wins from four league games which backs up the confidence that they can handle this fixture. No side has scored more than Spurs and only Arsenal have conceded fewer.
Chelsea’s away form tells a different story. Two wins from six on the road, coupled with poor xG control and a high volume of chances conceded, leave them looking vulnerable. While Spurs have at times been open defensively, they have created enough to offset it, averaging over two goals per home game and maintaining steady shot dominance.
With Spurs showing stronger attacking metrics, greater home consistency, and Chelsea trending down in all major performance categories, Draw No Bet gives a sensible cushion against the draw while aligning with the more sustainable process. Spurs’ sharper attack and Chelsea’s defensive decline make the home side the clear value option.
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