Sweden face Kosovo on Monday night in Solna in a crucial World Cup qualifier that will define whether they can keep any hope of reaching the playoffs alive.
It is a Group B fixture at the Nya Ullevi, and while Switzerland look clear favourites to top the group, Sweden know a win here is essential to climb off the bottom.
Sweden’s campaign has been a major disappointment so far. They have taken just one point from three games, leaving them fourth in the section with a negative goal difference.
Their only draw came against Slovenia, while defeats to Kosovo and Switzerland have left them playing catch-up. On xPTS, they sit at 3.8, roughly half of what Switzerland and Kosovo have managed, underlining how wasteful they have been.
Defensively, they have allowed too many big chances, conceding 1.46 xGA per game, while their xG for sits at 1.18 which is promising in possession but often without end product.
Kosovo, by contrast, have exceeded expectations. They beat Sweden 2–1 at home earlier in the campaign and sit second in the group, three points ahead of Denmark and five clear of Sweden. Their xPTS of 6.7 shows they have been clinical rather than dominant, with an xG ratio under 50% but an impressive big-chance conversion rate.
For Sweden, the focus turns to the attacking trio of Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres, and Anthony Elanga, who have the quality to spark a revival.
There is also pressure on head coach Jon Dahl Tomasson to find balance as Sweden have created enough chances to win games but have not managed the defensive structure to hold leads. Monday offers a chance to reset, in front of a home crowd that will demand a response.
How the bookies view it: Hosts strong favourites
Sweden are strong favourites at 1/3, implying a 75% chance of victory as they look to climb off the bottom of Group B. The draw is 9/2 (18.2%), while Kosovo are 19/2 (9.5%), showing little confidence in an away upset.
Sweden’s xG of 1.18 per game and attacking depth with Isak, Gyokeres, and Elanga justify their price, especially at home where their xPTS average is strong.
Over 2.5 goals at 4/6 carries a 60% implied probability, suggesting an open game, while both teams to score at 23/20 equates to 46.5%.
Recent head-to-head: Evenly Balanced
Sweden and Kosovo have met four times, with the record evenly balanced at two wins each. The goal difference stands at 6–3 in Sweden’s favour, giving them an average margin of +0.75 goals per game across those meetings.
The most recent encounter came earlier in this qualifying campaign, when Kosovo won 2–0 at home which was their first competitive victory over Sweden. Before that, Sweden had enjoyed dominance in World Cup qualifiers, recording 3–0 wins both home and away in 2021.
Those matches reflected the clear gap in quality at the time, with Sweden creating far more chances and controlling play.
Their first ever meeting came in January 2020, a friendly that ended 1–0 to Kosovo, meaning both sides have now won once at home and once away.
Overall, the trend suggests a fixture that rarely ends in stalemate with none of the four meetings have finished level, and all have produced a clean sheet for the winner. Sweden lead on goals scored and overall control, but Kosovo’s recent victory shows they are no longer intimidated by higher-ranked opposition.
Players to watch: Isak to keep Sweden alive
Alexander Isak looks a strong bet to score anytime against Kosovo. Despite Sweden’s struggles in front of goal, his individual numbers remain impressive. Across the first two qualifiers, he registered four shots, two on target, and posted an xG of 0.82, leading Sweden for attempts and touches in the box.
He is clearly central to Jon Dahl Tomasson’s attack, operating as the main finisher in a front two alongside Viktor Gyokeres.
Kosovo’s defence also strengthens the case. They’ve conceded 1.78 xGA per match across their last five away games and allowed 5.6 shots on target per 90, figures that suggest space and opportunity for Sweden’s forwards. Isak’s sharp movement and finishing ability make him the most likely to capitalise.
With penalty duty and set-piece involvement adding another layer to his threat, Isak should get multiple chances in a game Sweden must win. The data and match context both point to him being their best route to goal and a solid choice to score anytime.
Predicted line-ups
Sweden (3-5-2): Johansson, Lagerbielke, Hien, Gudmundsson, Bernhardsson, Bergvall, Karlström, Ayari, Sema, Gyökeres, Isak
Kosovo (4-3-3): Muric, Krasniqi, Hajdari, Aliti, Vojvoda, Avdullahu, Rexhbecaj, Gallapeni, Muslija, Rrahmani, Muriqi
Anything else catch the eye?
This fixture looks made for a controlled Sweden response, and Sweden to win & under 3.5 goals combines both data and game state logic. Bottom of Group B, they have to win to retain any slim hope of catching Switzerland, but more realistically to chase second place and reach the playoffs.
Sweden’s underlying data is far better than their results. Across their three qualifiers, they average 13.1 shots per game and 5.2 on target, ranking second in the group for attacking volume but fourth for conversion.
Their non-penalty xG of 1.18 per 90 shows they are creating chances; the issue has been finishing and defensive lapses. At home, their xPTS jumps to 1.61 per match, while they concede just 0.92 xGA on average. That balance suits a win in a lower-scoring contest.
Kosovo’s away numbers point the same way. They have averaged only 8.4 shots per game and 2.6 on target, with an xG of 0.79 per 90 outside Pristina. They rely on moments rather than control as their big-chance creation rate is one of the lowest in the section, and they have scored in just one of their last four competitive away fixtures.
Sweden’s front three should make the difference. Isak, Gyokeres, and Elanga bring pace and physicality that Kosovo have struggled to contain.
The visitors allowed Switzerland and Denmark a combined 24 shots and nine on target across two away defeats, showing how easily strong attacks can wear them down.
With Sweden motivated by necessity and backed by home support, a 2–0 or 2–1 score line fits both the numbers and the narrative. Sweden to win and under 3.5 total goals captures that realistic blend of control and margin, and it is a bet supported by both current metrics and motivation.
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