The new League One season kicks off with a high-profile clash as promotion hopefuls Stockport County host Bolton Wanderers at Edgeley Park on Sunday lunchtime.
Stockport are coming off the back of an impressive third-place finish last season, where they posted 87 points and boasted the best non-penalty xG difference in the division. While a play-off defeat to Leyton Orient denied them promotion, Dave Challinor’s side showed enough over 46 games to prove they belong at the top end again. The summer has seen a calculated reshuffle. Seven senior players have left, including Isaac Olaofe, but the incoming business has been sharp. Mallik Mothersille, Joseph Olowu, and Tayo Edun add quality, while Nathan Lowe joins on loan from Stoke after scoring 15 in 22 for Walsall in League Two.
Bolton, meanwhile, faded badly after a strong start under Steven Schumacher, who replaced Ian Evatt midway through the season. They finished eighth, and the underlying numbers suggested they were more mid-table than play-off calibre. Their non-penalty xG difference of +0.27 placed them behind sides like Lincoln and Huddersfield. Defensively, they conceded 70 goals which was more than any other top-half team – and kept just nine clean sheets all season.
This summer, Schumacher has refreshed the squad. New arrivals include Richard Taylor, Xavier Simons, and Sam Dalby, while Amario Cozier-Duberry and Teddy Sharman-Lowe have arrived on loan.
The last time these two met at Edgeley Park, Stockport won 5–0. While that may not be repeated, the home side will be confident of starting strongly again. With both sides carrying expectation, this feels like an early indicator of how the promotion race might shape up.
How the bookies view it: Hosts clear favourites
Stockport are priced at 20/21 to win, implying a 51.2% chance of victory. The draw is 14/5 (26.3%), while Bolton are 3/1 outsiders (25.0%). Over 2.5 goals is available at 19/20, which carries a 51.3% implied probability, and Both Teams to Score is 4/5, implying a 55.6% chance.
Head to Head: County hold small advantage
Stockport and Bolton have met five times in competitive matches since 2021, with Stockport winning two, Bolton winning one, and two ending in draws (W2-D2-L1 from Stockport’s perspective). Three of those five games went over 2.5 goals, and four saw both teams score. Across the five matches, a total of 18 goals were scored, giving an average of 3.6 goals per game. Stockport have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning both League One encounters last season, including a dominant 5–0 victory at Edgeley Park.
Players to watch: Diamond to sparkle
Jack Diamond looks a solid candidate for shot-based markets going into Stockport’s opener against Bolton, based on both his season output and his strong finish to last year.
He started 16 league games in 2024–25, playing a total of 1,199 minutes. In that time, he scored four goals, registered one assist, and took 27 shots, 10 of which were on target. Across his starts, he hit two or more shots in nine of 15 games with full data, and registered one or more shots on target in 8 of them.
Crucially, he became more established in the side at the back end of the campaign, starting each of Stockport’s final five league games. During that stretch, he took 12 shots, with four on target. He hit 2+ shots in four of those five games, and landed at least one on target in four of five. It’s a clear indication that, when trusted with a run of starts, he consistently gets into shooting positions.
With pace to stretch defences, the ability to cut inside, and a more defined role in the front line, he looks well-positioned to carry that momentum into the new season. Against a Bolton side that conceded 70 goals last year and regularly gave up chances on the road, Diamond is one to keep an eye on in the shots and shots on target markets.
Predicted line-ups
Stockport County (3-4-2-1): Addai; O’Keefe, Pye, Hoskonen; Fevrier, Norwood, Bate, Dodgson; Diamond, Camps; Mothersille
Bolton Wanderers (4-2-3-1): Sharman-Lowe; Dacres-Cogley, Toal, Johnston, Conway; Morley, Sheehan; Cozier-Duberry, McAtee, Gale; Lawrence
Anything else catch the eye?
Stockport to win looks a value play when you weigh up the numbers from last season and compare the two squads heading into the new campaign.
Start with the underlying process. Stockport had an outstanding non-penalty xG difference of +0.62, comfortably the best in League One. Their xPTS (85.65) virtually matched their actual points (87), showing consistent performance across the season. Bolton, in contrast, had an xPTS of just 66.12 and a negative goal difference, conceding 70 times in 46 games.
Stockport were especially strong at home, winning 13 of 23 matches at Edgeley Park and keeping nine clean sheets. They scored two or more goals in over half of those games and only failed to find the net twice. Bolton lost 10 of 23 on the road and conceded 38 away from home which was one of the worst records in the top half.
The shot data backs it up too. Stockport regularly out-shot opponents and limited quality chances against, while Bolton failed to register more than five shots on target in any of their final six away games last season. In their last trip to Stockport, they conceded five.
With a settled manager, a coherent squad, and the addition of clinical forwards like Nathan Lowe and Mallik Mothersille, Stockport look well-placed to pick up where they left off. The contrast in control, structure, and defensive reliability makes this a solid home win pick.
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