Southampton welcome Wrexham to St Mary’s on Saturday lunchtime as the Championship kicks off for the 2025/26 season. It’s a meeting of two clubs who took very different paths to this point, but both arrive with expectation and scrutiny.
For Southampton, this marks a new chapter after a chaotic few seasons under Sport Republic. They were relegated from the Premier League with just 13 points last season, narrowly avoiding breaking Derby’s all-time record low and enter the campaign with pressure on the board and new head coach Will Still. Still has a clear philosophy centred on aggressive pressing and tactical adaptability, and he inherits a squad with 12 of the 17 players who featured regularly in their 2023/24 Championship promotion. Key names like Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Flynn Downes and Adam Armstrong remain, though departures are expected before the window closes. Incoming signings include centre-back Joshua Quarshie and forward Damion Downs, with more to follow once sales go through.
Wrexham, meanwhile, begin their first second-tier season since 1982. Their rise has been extraordinary with three straight promotions and while they were efficient last season, their 92-point haul included a +19.4 overperformance on xPTS. They have strengthened again this summer, with New Zealand international Liberato Cacace joining from Empoli, striker Ryan Hardie arriving from Plymouth Argyle, and experienced attacker Josh Windass signing from Sheffield Wednesday. Windass scored 13 league goals last season and adds proven Championship quality to the front line.
Despite finishing second in League One, Wrexham’s away form against fellow top-eight sides was mixed with one win in seven, with three goals scored. That contrast between home dominance and limited away output could be a factor here.
Southampton will see this as a chance to make a statement early. For Wrexham, it’s the start of a new test altogether.
How the bookies view it: Saints strong favourites
Southampton are priced at 3/4 to win, which implies a 57.1% chance of victory, while the draw is 29/10 (25.6%) and Wrexham are 4/1 outsiders, carrying an implied probability of 20.0%. The odds reflect Southampton’s strong home advantage and squad quality, with the market clearly expecting them to control the game. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is priced at 10/11 (52.4% implied), and both teams to score is 17/20, suggesting a 54.1% chance. The market leans slightly towards a game with goals and a fair chance that both sides find the net, but neither outcome is strongly odds-on.
Head to Head: No meeting since 1960
Southampton and Wrexham have met just four times in competitive fixtures, all in the old Third Division during the 1958–59 and 1959–60 seasons. Each side won twice, with no draws between them. Wrexham won 2-1 at The Dell in September 1958, while Southampton responded with a 3-1 victory at the Racecourse Ground later that season. The following campaign saw Southampton win 3-0 at home before Wrexham claimed a 2-1 win in the return fixture. Across those four meetings, Southampton scored seven goals to Wrexham’s five. This will be their first competitive meeting in over 60 years and the first ever in the Championship.
Players to watch: Armstrong consistent in returns
Adam Armstrong looks a strong bet to register 2+ shots and 1+ shot on target in Southampton’s opener. When starting at home for the Saints in the 2023/24 Championship season and playing over 45 minutes, he hit this mark in 19 of 22 matches which is an 86% success rate.
Whether playing through the middle or from the left, Armstrong consistently got into shooting positions and was one of the most active forwards in the division, finishing that season with 24 league goals. He averaged 3.2 shots per home start, with a healthy share hitting the target. Now back in a central role after an unproductive stint at West Brom, he’ll benefit from a stronger supply line including Ryan Fraser, Cameron Archer, and Damion Downs.
This bet is priced at 1.7 with Ladbrokes, which implies a 58% chance, far below what the 2023/24 numbers suggest. Given his track record and expected role, this looks a clear value angle.
Predicted line-ups
Southampton (4-2-3-1): Bazunu; Bree, Stephens, Quarshie, Manning; Charles, Sesay; Fraser, Archer, Downs; Armstrong
Wrexham (3-5-2): Ward; O’Connell, Coady, Brunt; Longman, Evans, Lee, Ashfield, McClean; Windass, Moore
Anything else catch the eye?
Southampton to win and under 4.5 goals appeals as a strong combination for the Championship opener. While Wrexham’s story is remarkable, the data suggests they could struggle to make an impact at St Mary’s.
Across their seven away games against top-eight League One sides last season, Wrexham scored just three goals, failed to score in four, and averaged 0.86 points per game. Their shot output in these games was low, and they struggled to control territory or tempo. In their 1-0 win at Wycombe Wanderers, for example, they posted just 0.39 xG from five shots, relying on a set-piece moment and defensive resilience to take the points.
Southampton, by contrast, were one of the Championship’s best home teams in 2023/24. Across 23 home matches, they averaged 2.22 points per game, produced 1.88 xG per game, and conceded only 0.91 xGA, resulting in a +0.97 xG differential per match the second-best in the league. They regularly controlled shot volume and restricted opposition threat inside the box.
Even after relegation, Southampton’s squad carries far too much quality for this level. The likes of Cameron Archer, Ben Brereton Diaz, Samuel Edozie and Matheus Fernandes offer Premier League-level attacking options. That level of individual ability should overwhelm a Wrexham side still adjusting to the demands of the second tier.
Wrexham are likely to prioritise caution, especially early in the season. Six of their seven away games against top-eight League One sides last season landed under 4.5 goals. With Southampton expected to control proceedings, a home win in a measured, low-event match looks the value play.
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