The Championship serves up one of its fiercest fixtures on Sunday as Southampton host Portsmouth at St Mary’s in the south coast derby. It is their first meeting since a League Cup clash in 2019, and the anticipation around the city is huge.
Southampton come into the game as one of the division’s highest-rated sides on performance metrics. Their home xPTS sits at 4.58, the highest in the league, with their attack averaging 2.90 xG per home game. Despite sitting mid-table with just five points from four matches, their underlying data suggests results will catch up soon. The summer saw a reshaping of the squad, with Mateus Fernandes leaving for West Ham, Tyler Dibling to Everton and Jan Bednarek to Porto, but new additions like Leo Scienza, Tom Fellows, Finn Azaz and Damion Downs have strengthen the squad for new manager Will Still.
Portsmouth, by contrast, arrive as outsiders. Their xPTS total of 6.24 puts them in mid-table, and their away record shows a grinding style of football, with games averaging just 1.65 xG in total. They have been compact but not particularly threatening going forward. A quiet transfer window saw them lose winger Paddy Lane to Reading, though loan deals for Ipswich’s Conor Chaplin and Florian Bianchini alongside free agent John Swift have added depth.
Form-wise, Southampton have started the season with W1-D2-L1, including a dramatic 2-2 with Watford, while Portsmouth edged past Preston but were comfortably second best against Norwich. The difference lies in the shot numbers: Southampton are averaging over 10 shots inside the box per match, compared to Portsmouth’s 5.75.
With a sell-out crowd expected, this derby promises intensity, noise, and no shortage of drama. For Southampton, it’s a chance to turn strong metrics into points. For Portsmouth, it’s about defying expectations and delivering a shock against their rivals.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Southampton go into the south coast derby priced at 3/4, an implied 57.1% chance, with the draw at 3/1 (25%) and Portsmouth outsiders at 19/5 (20.8%). Goals look likely, with both both teams to score and over 2.5 priced at 4/5 (55.6%), a fair reflection of recent trends.
Head to Head: Saints strong in recent history
The last time Southampton and Portsmouth met was in the League Cup back in September 2019, when Saints ran out convincing 4-0 winners at Fratton Park. That remains their only competitive clash in recent years, giving Southampton a clear edge in the head-to-head line with one win from one.
It was also a reminder of the gulf between the clubs at the time, with Southampton then a Premier League side and Portsmouth operating two divisions lower. With no league meetings since 2012, this weekend’s clash at St Mary’s is the first in over a decade, adding extra weight and intensity to the rivalry.
Players to watch: Tough afternoon for Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis looks a strong candidate in the fouls market for Sunday’s south coast derby. The Southampton defender has committed six fouls in his opening three Championship matches this season, averaging 2.0 per game, and has already been booked once.
That’s a sharp increase on his 2023/24 promotion campaign, when he averaged just 0.56 fouls per game, and even higher than his 2024/25 Premier League season where he averaged just over one foul per match. Under Will Still, Saints defend more aggressively, with centre-backs encouraged to step into duels, and it has dragged Harwood-Bellis into more contact situations.
The match-up also points to fouls. Portsmouth’s target man Colby Bishop is excellent at using his body to draw challenges as is new signing Conor Chaplin, while wide runners like Josh Murphy and Florian Bianchini are direct and willing to carry the ball. In a derby environment where intensity is high and cards are likely, Harwood-Bellis is set for another busy defensive game.
Predicted line-ups
Southampton (3-4-3): Bazunu, Roerslev, Harwood-Bellis, Stephens, Manning, Charles, Azaz, Wood-Gordon, Fraser, Archer, Robinson
Portsmouth (4-2-3-1): Schmid, Swanson, Poole, Shaughnessy, Ogilvie, Dozzell, Swift, Bianchini, Chaplin, Murphy, Bishop
Anything else catch the eye?
Derbies rarely pass quietly, and this one should follow that pattern. Southampton’s attacking numbers make them a strong candidate to score twice, while the feisty nature of the fixture makes cards on both sides likely.
Southampton have been relentless in attack. Their shot volume is one of the highest in the Championship, averaging 17.25 shots in the box across their matches so far, with 5.75 shots on target per game. They have also created a league-high seven big chances.
At St Mary’s, their matches average 4.40 total xG, and they are posting a +1.40 xG differential at home. They have scored in each of their four league games, whilst scoring twice in half of their four fixtures. Their attacking depth with Cameron Archer, Ryan Fraser, Adam Armstrong and Ross Stewart driving forward makes them a constant threat.
Portsmouth’s defensive record has been patchy on the road. They concede an average of 7.50 shots inside the box away from home, while opponents are landing over three shots on target per game. That is a dangerous recipe against one of the league’s sharpest attacks.
As for discipline, both sides look nailed-on for cards. Portsmouth have collected at least one booking in every match this season, and average 2.75 yellow cards per game. Southampton’s aggressive pressing game has led to 2.5 cards per match, with players like Flynn Downes and Taylor Harwood-Bellis often walking a fine line.
The derby context strengthens this angle. With the rivalry reignited after six years without a competitive meeting, expect the intensity to spill over. Historical meetings between the two sides have featured high card counts, and with both sets of players eager to stamp their authority, cautions are almost inevitable.
The numbers suggest Southampton have the firepower to deliver two or more goals, and the fixture profile points clearly towards both teams going into the referee’s book.
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