Shkendija and FCSB meet in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League second qualifying round tie on Tuesday at the Tose Proeski Arena in Skopje.
The Macedonian champions come into the game having already secured their domestic title with weeks to spare, finishing the league with 70 points and a strong home record of 2.35 points per game. In the previous round they edged past The New Saints 2‑1 on aggregate after extra time, creating 23 shots with 11 on target while conceding 13 shots with 9 on target. That narrow win highlights both their ability to dominate possession and their struggles to turn chances into goals.
FCSB arrive as Romanian champions, having won Liga I by nine points last season thanks to their consistent home and away form. They progressed in the previous round by beating Inter Escaldes 4‑3 on aggregate. They were more efficient in attack, producing 20 shots with 10 on target while conceding 16 shots with seven on target across the two legs. Both sides created more than their opponents in the previous round but fell short of their xG, suggesting finishing has lagged behind the quality of chances. Shkendija’s xPTS at home was strong thanks to sustained pressure, while FCSB’s xPTS away reflected their defensive strength and ability to grind results. This sets up a tactical, close‑fought match in which small margins will decide the first leg.
How the bookies view it: FCSB favourites
Shkendija are priced at 29/10 to win the first leg, which implies around a 25.6% chance of victory. The draw is 40/17 (roughly 29.8% implied), while FCSB are 1/1, giving them an implied probability of 50% to win.
For goals markets, over 2.5 goals is offered at 5/4, which equates to about a 44.4% chance, and both teams to score is 11/10, or roughly 47.6% implied probability.
So the market sees FCSB as slight favourites, with the game expected to be low‑scoring overall.
Head to Head: First Meeting
This Champions League second qualifying round tie is their first ever head‑to‑head encounter, so there is no historical record between the two sides to draw on.
Players to watch: Miculescu the main man
David Miculescu has started the season as one of FCSB’s most active attackers. In his first four matches across the league and Champions League qualifiers, he has played 250 minutes, taking 10 shots with six on target. That works out to over 3.5 shots per 90 minutes and a strong 60% accuracy on target.
He played almost full matches in the first three games and only 45 minutes in the second leg against Inter Escaldes, where he did not register a shot. Even so, his positioning on the right and tendency to cut inside or attack the box make him a reliable shooting option. If his early form continues, two or more shots and at least one on target remain realistic, and he is a good outside bet to score.
Predicted line-ups
Shkendija (4‑2‑3‑1): Gaye; Trumci, Cake, Webster, Fetai; Qaka, Ramadani; Latifi, Krasniqi, Tamba; Ademi
FCSB (4‑2‑3‑1): Tarnovanu; Pantea, Ngezana, Popescu, Kiki; Sut, Lixandru; Miculescu, Olaru, Gheorghita; Stoian
Anything else catch the eye?
FCSB -0.25 Asian Handicap is an appealing angle in this match given their defensive discipline and ability to control tight contests. Away from home in the league last season, FCSB kept seven clean sheets and allowed fewer than one goal per game on average, showing how well‑organised they are under pressure. In their Champions League tie with Inter Escaldes, they created 20 shots to 16 and conceded just seven shots on target, reflecting their ability to limit high‑quality chances against them.
Shkendija, meanwhile, needed extra time to edge past The New Saints, creating plenty of shots but converting only twice across more than 200 minutes. Despite having more of the ball and a higher shot count, they struggled to break down a compact defence. FCSB’s style, which prioritises defensive solidity and counter‑attacking, matches up well against a Shkendija side that prefers to have possession but leaves spaces at the back. Backing FCSB to cover -0.25 reflects their superior quality, greater European experience, and tactical approach suited to these fixtures.
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