The early rounds of Champions League qualifying don’t usually attract much attention, but it’s precisely in these matches that the biggest upsets occur. We saw just such an upset in the first leg between Floriana and Shamrock Rovers a week ago. Now, the Irish champions are looking to pull off a difficult comeback in front of their home crowd, and anything less than a resounding victory will be a grand failure.
Shamrock Rovers suffered a 2-0 loss on the road a week ago, largely due to Matthew Healy’s foolishness—he picked up two yellow cards within seconds, leaving his team a man down in the 58th minute.
But even then, the Hoops weren’t the weaker team on the field, though they were unable to prevent a second goal. However, their performance with 10 men sent a clear signal that they are rightfully the favourites from the very start of this matchup, and we can expect a very different game at home in Dublin.
Floriana will likely look to protect their lead, and we don’t expect them to be very threatening on offence in this rematch. Despite their victory, we’re not convinced the Maltese are in top form, given that this was their first official match in two months.
In contrast, Shamrock Rovers are in the thick of the season in the Irish Premier Division, and their physical conditioning is certainly on a different level right now.
How the bookies view it: The Hoops are not out just yet
The Hoops were also heavy favourites in the first match a week ago, with bookmakers offering odds of about 9/10 for a win at the time. However, Shamrock lost, and now that they need to win by at least two goals, the odds in their favour are minimal.
Currently, you can back Shamrock Rovers at 3/10, a draw at 15/4, or Floriana at 13/2.
Recent head-to-head: Floriana surprised everyone
Shamrock Rovers and Floriana had never faced each other before last week, given that neither team is a frequent participant in UEFA competitions. In particular, the Tal-Irish last appeared in a UEFA group stage in the 1997 Intertoto Cup.
Last week saw the start of this rivalry with Floriana’s 2-0 victory, and now we’ll see the rematch.
Players to watch: Burke’s experience can turn the tide
Bookmakers rarely provide player markets for the early qualification rounds, but they sometimes appear in the final hours before kick-off. Currently, there aren't any options for this rematch, but should they appear, we would bet on 1+ shots on target for Graham Burke.
Shamrock Rovers often trust the youth and that's a great philosophy, but they will need the experience for this one, and Burke is in his 10th season with the team. He is also their top scorer overall, so there's no one better to trust.
Probable line-ups
Shamrock Rovers: McGinty, O'Sullivan, Grace, Stevens, Brennan, Byrne, O'Regan, Watts, Mulraney, Burke, Noonan
Floriana: Cioletti, Beerman, Kauan, Spiteri, Lonardelli, Kurtalic, Vella, Varela, Dervisagic, Muric, Jah
Anything else catch the eye?
Bad results like last week's loss happen from time to time, but it doesn't change the fact that Shamrock Rovers are in top form right now, at least domestically.
They have the experience to deal with Floriana, and we expect them to be much more tactically prepared. As a start, they need to score as early as possible to get things going, which is why we are going for a win at HT.
And then, at a higher risk, we will back Shamrock Rovers to qualify at 6/5. It may not happen in regulation time, but we expect at least a 2-0 win.
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