Real Salt Lake host St. Louis City on Saturday night at Rio Tinto Stadium in the MLS, with both sides looking to turn around mixed seasons. Salt Lake have been solid but unspectacular at home with W3-D1-L4 of their eight games. They have scored nine and conceded eight, with an xG figure of 9.6 and an xGA of 10.5. Only two of those matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and they have kept four clean sheets while failing to score in three, which points toward a team that keeps things tight but lacks consistent attacking output.
St. Louis City’s away form has been a problem all year. They have taken just five points from ten games on the road, with a record of W1-D2-L7. They have scored only seven goals while conceding sixteen, and their underlying numbers are even worse, with 10.2 xG compared to 18.9 xGA. Over their last eight away matches they have gone winless, with one draw and seven losses, scoring four and conceding sixteen, exactly two goals per game on average. They have failed to score in six of ten away fixtures and have kept just two clean sheets. They concede an average of 18.5 shots and 6.6 shots on target per game on their travels, the second-worst in MLS. Despite ranking tenth on xPTS, they sit 14th in the table, highlighting just how poor their execution has been.
Salt Lake are not a high-scoring team but they are organised and capable of managing games at home. St. Louis are leaking chances and rarely converting their own. The setup makes a home win likely, but not an open game.
How the bookies view it: Real Salt Lake to win comfortably
Real Salt Lake are priced at 8/11 to take all three points, which implies a 57.9% chance of victory. The draw is at 3/1 (25%), while a St. Louis City win is available at 7/2, suggesting just a 22.2% chance of an away upset.
The market leans heavily toward goals, with over 2.5 goals at 4/7 (63.6%) and both teams to score also at 4/7. Despite RSL’s low-scoring home record and St. Louis’s frequent struggles in front of goal away from home, the odds suggest bookmakers expect an open game which is likely based on St. Louis’s defensive vulnerability and RSL’s potential to exploit it.
Head to Head: Little between the sides
Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City have faced each other five times, with the record fairly even. RSL have won two, St. Louis one, and the other two meetings ended in draws. Goals have been shared equally as well, with both sides scoring eight across those matches, averaging 3.2 goals per game. Three of the five clashes have seen over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in three of the last four, suggesting a tendency for open, competitive contests.
Their most recent meeting ended 1-1 in St. Louis earlier this year. In 2024, RSL won 3-1 at home and earned another 1-1 draw away. Back in 2023, Real Salt Lake took a 3-1 win on the road but also suffered a 4-0 home defeat in their first ever encounter with St. Louis. That result remains the outlier, as the other matches have generally been close. While RSL hold the slight edge in the head-to-head, the history between the two sides suggests matches are rarely one-sided and tend to produce a few goals.
Players to watch: Glad to make Real Salt Lake happy
Justen Glad has quietly emerged as a consistent shot threat from set pieces for Real Salt Lake this season. The centre-back has made 16 starts and taken nine shots overall, and while he is still yet to hit the target, the volume of attempts, particularly in recent games stands out. He has registered at least one shot in each of his last five appearances, producing a total of six during that run. That is a clear sign he is getting forward regularly for corners and free kicks, and the team is actively looking for him in those situations.
At home, the numbers are just as encouraging. Glad has taken five shots in seven starts at Rio Tinto Stadium, registering at least one shot in five of those matches. That 71% hit rate at home suggests strong value in backing him to record an attempt again, especially against a St. Louis side that concedes 18.5 shots per game on the road and struggles to defend set pieces. While a shot on target may require a bit more precision, the opportunity is certainly there. A small bet on Glad to have a shot looks well supported by the data.
Predicted line-ups
Real Salt Lake (4‑2‑3‑1): Cabral; Brody, Glad, Vera, Katranis; Palacio, Ruiz; Goncalves, Luna, Gozo; Agada
St. Louis City (4‑2‑3‑1): Burki; Totland, Hiebert, Reid, Watts; Baumgartl, Hartel; Teuchert, Pompeu, Becher; Klauss
Anything else catch the eye?
Under 2.5 goals looks a strong betting angle for this match, supported by both the results and underlying data. Real Salt Lake’s home games have averaged just 2.13 goals per game, with six of their eight matches finishing under the 2.5 goal line. The team has kept four clean sheets, and both teams to score no has landed in five of those eight matches, highlighting how often their games are decided by narrow margins rather than turning into open contests. Their xG at hom but e stands at 9.6, compared to an xGA figure of 10.5, suggesting balanced but cagey games with relatively few clear chances.
St. Louis City’s away record adds further weight. The side has failed to score in six of ten away matches, managing just seven goals across that run. Half of those games have ended with three or fewer goals, and only two have seen both teams score. Their away xG figure sits at 10.2, but they have allowed 18.9 xGA, underlining a pattern of regularly conceding quality chances while creating very little. With both teams showing strong trends towards low-scoring outcomes, under 2.5 goals is a well-supported option.
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