LaLiga returns to Seville on Monday night as Real Betis host Atletico Madrid at the Estadio de La Cartuja. Kick-off is set for 21:00, with both sides level on 16 points after nine rounds and looking to close the gap on Real Madrid and Barcelona.
It is a key test for two sides who have made solid starts and are tracking closely with their xPTS with Betis at 14.6 xPTS and Atletico at 16.5 xPTS.
Manuel Pellegrini’s Betis come into this fixture unbeaten in their last five across all competitions, winning three and drawing two. Their most recent outing was well earned 2-2 draw at Villareal, whilst their last home fixture was a convincing 2-0 home win over Osasuna that extended their strong record in Seville.
At home, they have taken nine points from a possible 12, scoring seven and conceding only three. Their process remains well balanced, averaging 1.39 xG for and 1.29 xGA per match, while their home defensive numbers rank among the league’s best.
Atletico, under Diego Simeone, also carry good form into this one. They have lost just once in LaLiga and recently hammered Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1 in the Champions League, although were well beaten at Arsenal midweek. Their xG numbers (16.0 for, 9.7 against) suggest a well-rounded side that creates quality chances without being reckless. However, all four of their away league games have ended without a win, showing some vulnerability on the road.
Both sides have been consistent in front of goal. Betis have scored in all nine league matches, while Atletico are also yet to fail to score this season. With both teams’ underlying data pointing to efficiency rather than chaos, this meeting at La Cartuja looks finely balanced between two organised, confident sides. A single goal either way could be decisive in what promises to be one of the weekend’s standout games.
How the bookies view it: Visitors are slight favourites
Atletico Madrid are narrow favourites ahead of Monday night’s LaLiga clash with Real Betis at Estadio de La Cartuja. The visitors are priced at 122/100, which gives them an implied win probability of around 45%. Real Betis are available at 11/5, translating to roughly a 31% chance of victory, while the draw at 11/4 implies about a 27% chance.
The prices reflect Atletico’s slightly stronger process data and higher attacking output across the opening nine rounds.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 4/5, suggesting an implied probability of around 55.6%, while both teams to score is 4/6, equating to roughly 60%. Those odds point to bookmaker confidence in a competitive game featuring goals at both ends, but not an end-to-end shootout.
That outlook fits the data. Both teams have scored in seven of nine LaLiga matches this season, and neither has failed to find the net in any fixture. Atletico’s matches average 2.89 total goals, while Betis’ sit just below that at 2.78. The visitors rank third in LaLiga for big chances created (31) and touches in the opposition box (258), but they remain without a clean sheet away from home.
Head to Head: Atletico have a strong history against Betis
Atletico Madrid have dominated this fixture over the past decade, winning 14 of the last 20 meetings with Real Betis, while Betis have managed only two victories and four draws. The aggregate score across those matches is 31-10 in Atletico’s favour, with the Madrid side averaging 1.55 goals per game compared to Betis’ 0.5.
Historically, Atletico’s defensive structure has stifled Betis, who have scored more than once in only one of those encounters. However, the pattern has started to shift slightly in recent seasons. Betis won 1-0 in this fixture last October and held Atletico to a 0-0 draw the year before, signalling improvement under Manuel Pellegrini.
Even so, Atletico have still won three of the last five meetings, including a 4-1 victory in Madrid last May. Most recent clashes have been tight and tactical, with three of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals, suggesting a more balanced contest now compared with the one-sided matchups that characterised this fixture from 2018 to 2022.
Players to watch: Antony a threat for hosts
Antony looks a strong pick to register 1+ shot on target when Real Betis face Atletico Madrid. The Brazilian has started all five of Betis’ most recent league matches on the right wing and has been heavily involved in their attacking play. Across those games, he’s recorded 18 shots with seven on target, meaning he’s landed at least one shot on target in four of the last five.
His recent numbers are steady and consistent. Antony averages 3.6 shots per match and 1.4 on target, backed by 1.4 xG and 0.6 xAG over that run. Even in games where Betis have had less possession, he continues to find space and test goalkeepers with his best performance coming away at Villarreal, where he scored twice from five attempts and hit the target twice.
Betis’ home process also supports the angle. They average 14 shots per match and five on target at La Cartuja, while Atletico have conceded in every away fixture this season and allowed both teams to score in all four. That gives Betis’ front three regular opportunities to get efforts away, particularly through wide players like Antony who cut inside onto their stronger foot.
With his recent form, shot volume, and Betis’ strong home metrics, Antony registering 1+ shot on target looks a high-probability selection. He is averaging comfortably above that mark across recent games and should again be involved in the key attacking moments against an Atletico defence that’s yet to keep an away clean sheet this season.
Predicted line-ups
Real Betis (4-3-3): Valles, Ruibal, Bartra, Gomez, Rodriguez, Altimira, Lo Celso, Deossa, Antony, Bakambu, Riquelme
Atlético Madrid (4-4-2): Oblak, Hancko, Gimenez, Le Normand, Llorente, Koke, Barrios, Simeone, Gonzalez, Alvarez, Sorloth
Anything else catch the eye?
This fixture sets up almost perfectly for both teams to score & under 4.5 goals. The statistical picture, home and away splits, and attacking data all point to a controlled contest where each side finds the net but neither runs away with it.
Real Betis have scored in all nine league matches this season and boast a 100% scoring record at home. They average 1.39 xG for per match and produce around 14 shots and five on target per game. However, they also allow 1.29 xGA and regularly give up good transition chances. Seven of their nine La Liga matches have landed both teams to score.
Atletico Madrid mirror that trend. Simeone’s side have also scored in every league fixture and have seen both teams to score in seven of nine. Away from home, it is a perfect 4/4 with all four road games have finished with both teams scoring but under 4.5 total goals. Atletico generate 16.0 xG so far this season and rank third for big chances created (31) and touches in the opposition box (258), but they have not kept a clean sheet away from home.
Both teams’ xPTS align closely with their actual totals with Betis 14.6, Atletico 16.5 showing they are performing to process rather than luck. Betis’ home record (7-3 goals in four games) and Atletico’s away output (4-5 in four) combine for a consistent two to three-goal range.
With both sides strong in attack yet structurally sound defensively, this fixture fits the data pattern for a mid-scoring draw or narrow win either way.
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