RB Leipzig vs BenficaUEFA Champions League, KO: 20:00 Nov 27, 2019, RB Arena
RB LEIPZIG have been blowing teams away of late so it's no surprise to see them odds-on for the win over Benfica that would seal a slot in the Champions League last 16.
The Germans are scoring for fun, smashing home 24 goals in a relentless five-game winning run, and should have too much firepower for the side propping up Group G.
But Benfica are in fine form themselves, with a 3-1 loss at Lyon on Matchday Four their only defeat in eight games. The other seven games all ended in victories so a few punters might fancy a nibble at the generous 6/1 Betfair are offering on a win for the Portuguese champions in Germany.
Lyon won at the RB Arena on Matchday Two so Julian Nagelsmann's side are far from invincible at home. However, having watched RB Leipzig totally outplay Zenit St Petersburg in Russia on their last outing in Group G, I would be surprised if they didn't win here.
When these sides faced off in Portugal on Matchday One, it ended 2-1 to the Germans thanks to a Timo Werner double so Leipzig should finish the job at home. They only need a point to reach the last 16 but will want to stay top of the section and keep their fine winning run going.
At a best 11/20 with Marathonbet, there's not much value on a home win but the odds increase to 2/1 with Coral if you double it with both teams to score. Benfica have netted in their last 10 matches while Leipzig have conceded in their last two so that points towards an open game.
The Germans boasted an incredible 68 per cent of possession away to Zenit and had 20 shots at goals, stats that Barcelona in their prime would be proud of.
They've had most of the ball in every group game so far, even at the Stadium of Light against a Benfica side who like to knock it around.
So I'd expect Leipzig to dominate possession at home and I'll be betting on them having more than 55 per cent of the ball. You can get possession bets on the day of the game at 888Sport so I'll try to post an update when I see them.
I backed Werner to score against Zenit only for Nagelsmann to surprise everyone by leaving his star man on the bench. The striker still came on to provide an assist but it would be a big shock if Werner didn't start here.
His weekend strike against Cologne made it 17 for the season and Werner is odds-on for another goal here, his best price for anytime scorer 10/11 with 888Sport.
A repeat of his double against Benfica pays better at 4/1 with Paddy Power and that might be worth a punt. But I'll be putting my money on Marcel Sabitzer who netted in the win over Zenit.
Benfica are sweating on the fitness of Swiss striker Haris Seferovic, who was injured on international duty and sat out the weekend win over Vizela. He scored against Leipzig at home and will be a big miss if he fails to make it.
But midfielder Pizzi is in fine scoring form, with 13 from 18 games this season, and looks a bit overpriced here for anytime scorer at 7/2 with Paddy Power.
There have been penalties in Leipzig's last two games so the 2/1 Boylesports offer on a spot-kick here could be worth a punt, especially with VAR continuing to cast an insidious eye over proceedings.
This UEFA Champions League match between RB Leipzig and Benfica will be played on Nov 27, 2019 and kick off at 20:00