Preston North End host Sheffield United at Deepdale on Friday night in the Championship, with both sides entering the match in contrasting moods.
Preston sit in mid-table after a solid if unspectacular start, while Sheffield United have slowly stabilised under Chris Wilder and are showing signs of recovery after a poor opening month.
Paul Heckingbottom’s team have taken 16 points from 11 matches (W4-D4-L3) and remain hard to beat, particularly at home where they have conceded just four goals in six games. Preston’s process is strong: they average 1.17 goals for and 1.09 against, with xG data (11.8 for, 12.4 against) suggesting they are performing close to their underlying numbers.
Their xPTS of 13.4 places them mid-table, accurately reflecting their steady but unspectacular efficiency. Heckingbottom’s side rely on structure, set pieces and controlled phases rather than sustained attacking pressure, which helps explain their low goal volume and relatively calm defensive record.
Sheffield United, meanwhile, have picked up under Wilder. The Blades have won three of their last five, two of them by single-goal margins, and five of those six has gone under 2.5 goals. They have improved defensively, conceding just five times in that period, and their underlying process is strengthening too as they sit on 12.4 xPTS despite losing eight of eleven.
Going forward, they have underperformed against an xG of 11.8, scoring only seven goals, but there’s been visible progress in their structure and ball retention.
Wilder’s return has brought back the familiar 3-4-2-1 system, with overlapping centre-backs and energetic wing play. The shift has produced a more solid side and boosted attacking volume from wide areas. After back-to-back wins against Watford and Blackburn, confidence is higher than it’s been all season, and a third straight victory would lift them out of the bottom three.
How the bookies view it: Blades edge it
Preston are priced at 2/1, which gives them an implied win probability of 33.3%, while the draw at 11/5 equates to 31.3%. Sheffield United are slight favourites at 13/8, an implied chance of 38.0%, reflecting their recent upturn under Chris Wilder.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is trading at 6/4 (around a 40% chance), while both teams to score is 11/10 (roughly 47.6%). Those prices suggest the market expects a tight, low-scoring contest, consistent with both sides’ season trends with Preston’s home matches average just 1.8 goals, and Sheffield United’s away games 2.2.
Head to Head: Visitors have the upper hand
Sheffield United have had the upper hand in this fixture over the past decade. Across the last 12 meetings, Preston have won two, drawn three, and lost seven, with an aggregate score of 11-20 and an average goal difference of -0.75 per game.
The Blades have also won each of the last three head-to-heads, including a 1-0 home victory in March and a 2-0 win at Deepdale on the opening day of this season. Preston’s last win in the matchup came back in December 2017, and they have failed to beat Sheffield United in the last eight meetings (D2 L6).
Historically, these games tend to be tight, averaging just 2.58 total goals per match, and only four of the last twelve have gone over 2.5 goals.
Players to watch: Soumare to shoot
Djibril Soumare looks a smart option for 1+ shot in Friday’s game between Preston North End and Sheffield United. The French midfielder has quietly become an important part of Chris Wilder’s setup, starting four of the last six league matches and settling into a consistent central role.
What makes him stand out for this market is his steady shooting output since re-establishing himself in the side. Soumare has recorded 1, 2, 2, and 2 shots across those four starts, averaging 1.75 attempts per game.
All of those games were under Wilder, whose system encourages central midfielders to step into space around the edge of the box and recycle possession with purpose. Soumare’s role is more proactive now, and he’s showing greater confidence in getting shots away when United build pressure.
Preston tend to defend deep, often forcing opponents to shoot from mid-range areas, a pattern that suits Soumare’s positioning. In their home matches this season, 42% of shots faced have come from outside the box, and they allow around 10 shots per game in total. That means there’s room for a ball-playing midfielder like Soumare to take on one or two efforts as United probe for openings.
He is yet to test a goalkeeper this season, but his consistent volume makes him a good value pick for a 1+ shot bet, especially if priced around even money or above. Given his recent trend, playing time, and the tactical shape of both teams, Soumare looks well placed to keep that shooting run going at Deepdale.
Predicted line-ups
Preston North End (3-1-4-2): Iversen, Storey, Gibson, Hughes, Whiteman, Offiah, McCann, Armstrong, Vukcevic, Jebbison, Smith
Sheffield United (3-4-2-1): Cooper, Tanganga, McGuinness, Mee, Ogbene, Soumare, Peck, McCallum, O’Hare, Cannon, Ings
Anything else catch the eye?
Sheffield United to win over 4.5 corners looks one of the stronger angles for Friday’s trip to Deepdale. Chris Wilder’s side have been consistent in this area, recording five or more corners in all six away matches this season and averaging 6.7 per game on the road. Their style under Wilder naturally pushes play wide, with wing-backs Ogbene and McCallum stretching the pitch and encouraging early deliveries.
Across their away fixtures, the Blades hold a +2.7 corner differential, producing 40 corners for and only 24 against. That control has continued even in defeats: they won the corner count away at Middlesbrough (8-5), Swansea (8-4) and Hull (9-4). The pattern reflects their shot profile with United average 12.3 shots per game, with 65% taken from inside the box, and generate a steady stream of blocked and deflected efforts that lead to set-piece situations.
Preston’s data supports the bet from the opposite angle. Heckingbottom’s side win only 4.3 corners per home match and have lost the corner count in four of six at Deepdale. They allow 4.8 corners against per home game on average, and their possession style often sees them sit deeper for long spells, inviting pressure down the flanks.
From an xPTS standpoint, Sheffield United’s process (12.4 xPTS from 10 xG and 13.3 xGA) indicates improvement in territory and ball control, both key for sustaining corner volume. Their average of 10.7 total corners per away match also suggests plenty of action in this market.
With Preston unlikely to open the game up, United should dominate field position and set-piece situations again. Backing Sheffield United over 4.5 corners continues a 100% away success rate for that line and fits neatly with how Wilder’s side now build pressure through width, crosses, and persistence in the final third.
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