Portland and Real Salt Lake meet in Major League Soccer at Providence Park on Thursday. This Western Conference clash comes at a key stage in the season as both sides look to strengthen their playoff hopes.
Portland arrive in solid attacking form at home, having scored in every league match at Providence Park this season. Their xG at home stands at 15.5 over 11 games, reflecting a side that consistently creates chances. Defensively, though, they have only managed two clean sheets and have conceded more than their home xG against of 17.0 would suggest. Six of their 11 home games have finished with over 2.5 goals, underlining their high‑scoring style.
Real Salt Lake have struggled to impose themselves away from home, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of their 11 road matches. Their xG on the road is 13.8 with an xGA of 20.6, indicating they give up more chances than they create. They have also failed to score four times away but sit two places above Portland in the xPTS table.
Both sides are vulnerable defensively and capable of finding the net, setting up an intriguing contest between two inconsistent but dangerous attacks.
How the bookies view it: Hosts narrow favourites
Portland are priced at 23/20 to win, which implies about a 46.5% chance of victory. The draw is 11/4, roughly 26.7%, and Real Salt Lake are 12/5, which comes out to about 29.4%. Both teams to score is offered at 4/7, suggesting a strong 63.6% chance of happening, while over 2.5 goals is 4/6, which translates to about 60%. These odds reflect the expectation of a competitive match with goals likely and a slight edge to Portland at home.
Head to Head: Portland edge it
Portland and Real Salt Lake have met nineteen times in MLS, with Portland claiming eight wins, Salt Lake taking six, and five matches ending in draws, according to Corner‑Stats. Their head‑to‑head encounters have yielded a total of 59 goals with Portland scoring 32 and Salt Lake 27, averaging just over three goals per game. These fixtures have featured lively attacking action, with 61% of games producing more than 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 58% of matchups. Recent encounters have continued that trend, reinforcing the rivalry's reputation for openness and goal‑filled outcomes.
Players to watch: da Costa to register a shot on target
David da Costa has been a consistent attacking presence for Portland this season, featuring in 21 MLS matches and logging 1,783 minutes. He has scored four goals and provided six assists, with an xG of 3.8 and an xAG of 4.8, showing he both creates and finishes chances well. Over the campaign he has attempted 36 shots, 15 of which have been on target. His recent form is even more encouraging: in his last seven games he has scored twice, assisted once, and produced 11 shots with seven on target. Importantly, he has hit the target at least once in four of his last five games.
This level of consistency makes him a good bet to record at least one shot on target. He is involved in much of Portland’s attacking play, is not hesitant to shoot when opportunities arise, and his recent record suggests he is finding good positions to test the goalkeeper regularly. Given his current rhythm and the defensive weaknesses of Real Salt Lake away from home, backing him for at least one shot on target is a logical and well-supported choice.
Predicted line-ups
Portland (4-3-3): Crepeau; Smith, Surman, Zuparic, Mosquera; Ayala, Chara, Fernandez; Moreno, Da Costa, Mora
Real Salt Lake (4-2-3-1): Cabral; Katranis, Junqua, Caliskan, Eneli; Ojeda, Rui; Luna, Gonçalves, Gozo
Anything else catch the eye
Backing Portland -0.25 on the Asian Handicap looks a sensible play here. This bet essentially splits your stake between a Portland win and a draw, meaning you only lose fully if Portland lose outright.
Portland are stronger at home, while Salt Lake’s defensive record away from home is poor, having allowed at least one goal in every away match. Salt Lake’s road performances often lack the cutting edge to exploit Portland’s defensive frailties, especially as they have failed to score in multiple games on the road this season.
Portland’s attack is varied and capable of creating chances from both open play and set pieces, and they tend to control games better on their own turf. Even if Salt Lake score, Portland have shown resilience and enough firepower to recover and press for a winner.
Given the weaknesses Salt Lake show away from home and Portland’s reliability to score and push the game, the -0.25 Asian line offers value with a reduced risk if it ends level.
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