This weekends MLS clash between Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami CF at Subaru Park looks primed for goals, with both sides showing strong attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of Inter Miami’s 13 games and nine of Philadelphia’s 14, pointing toward another high-scoring encounter. Inter Miami average 2.00 goals per game while conceding 1.50. Philadelphia score 1.93 and concede 1.00, offering slightly more balance. However, four of their six clean sheets came against bottom-five teams. Against top-seven sides, they are W2-D2-L3 with just one clean sheet.
Inter Miami have scored in 12 of 13 matches, failing to find the net just once. Philadelphia have failed to score in only two of 14, underlining consistent output from both attacks. Inter are more clinical—averaging 11.9 shots per game with 39% accuracy—while Union take a volume-heavy approach, firing 17.3 shots and landing 6.3 on target per match.
Home and away records suggest a tight contest. Philadelphia are W5-D2-L1 at Subaru Park, where they average nearly 2 goals per game. Inter Miami are W3-D2-L1 on the road and have shown they can score in any environment. With Messi and Suarez leading the line, and both teams trending toward high goal totals, this matchup looks set for another entertaining, goal-filled affair.
How the bookies view it: Both teams to find the net
Bookmakers currently lean slightly toward Philadelphia Union in this weekend's clash with Inter Miami CF. A Union win is priced at 6/5, while Inter Miami are around 41/20, and the draw trades at 11/4. These odds suggest a modest edge for the home side, with implied chances of 45% for Philadelphia, 31% for Inter, and 24% for a draw.
The markets are clearly anticipating goals. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 3/5, and both teams to score is offered at 8/15, highlighting strong confidence that both sides will find the net.
Head to head: Goals on the agenda
Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami CF have faced off 12 times across all competitions. Inter Miami have a slight edge in the rivalry with six wins to Philadelphia’s four, and two matches ending in draws. The aggregate score line stands at 19–17 in favour of Inter Miami, averaging exactly three goals per match.
Recent form between the sides heavily favours Inter Miami, who have won each of the last three meetings: 2–1 Philadelphia's last win came in emphatic fashion, a 4–1 home victory on June 2023.
What is especially notable from a betting perspective is that each of the last five head-to-head encounters has seen both teams score and Over 2.5 Goals land.
Players to watch: Messi, who else?
Lionel Messi’s consistency in the 2025 MLS season has been outstanding from a betting perspective. He has made 10 appearances for Inter Miami CF with nine starts and one off the bench which has resulted in accumulating 846 minutes, five goals, and two assists.
From a shooting standpoint, Messi has taken 53 shots with 24 on target, giving him a shot accuracy of 45%. He averages 5.3 shots and 2.4 shots on target per game, with a shot on target every 35.25 minutes. His goal conversion rate sits at 9.4%, scoring once every 10.6 shots.
Messi has hit 2+ shots on target in nine of his 10 appearances, and 3+ total shots in nine of 10. Whether or not he scores, he remains an ever-present attacking threat, constantly testing goalkeepers and dictating play in the final third.
Predicted line-ups
Philadelphia Union will be without goalkeeper Andre Blake due to a knee injury, while defenders Ian Glavinovich and Neil Pierre are also sidelined. Midfielder Jovan Lukic misses out through suspension. Inter Miami have absences too, with goalkeeper Drake Callender unavailable and David Ruiz, Luis Rodriguez, and Allen Obando all recovering from hamstring injuries. Ryan Sailor remains out with a concussion, and Fafa Picault is also expected to miss the match.
Philadelphia Union (4-4-2): Blake; Wagner, Glesnes, Makhanya, Westfield; Jean Jacques, Lukic, Sullivan, Vassilev; Baribo, Donovan
Inter Miami CF (4-4-2): Ustari; Lujan, Aviles, Allen, Alba; Allende, Busquets, Bright, Taylor; Messi, Suarez
Anything else catch the eye?
Francis Westfield has made 12 starts for Philadelphia Union in the 2025 MLS season, registering nine shots with three on target—a shot accuracy of 33.3%. That breaks down to 0.75 shots per start and 0.25 on target per start.
What is particularly notable is the shift in volume: Westfield took just three shots across his first 10 appearances this season but has recorded six shots in his last three starts, suggesting a more attacking role or greater confidence going forward. Despite being primarily a defender, he’s chipped in with one goal and three assists, and this recent uptick in shot output could make him a more relevant threat in advanced areas if the trend continues.
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