Norrkoping host Brommapojkarna this Monday in the Swedish Allsvenskan at Platinum Cars Arena, with both sides looking to push up the table in what’s shaping into a tightly packed mid-table battle. The Allsvenskan, Sweden’s top flight, has delivered plenty of goals this season and this fixture looks likely to follow that trend based on both teams’ recent performances and underlying data.
Norrkoping come into the game with a W4-D1-L8 record and sit 12th in the home form table, having won just two of seven at home. They have scored 11 and conceded 14 at home, an average of 3.14 total goals per game whilst five of those seven going over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in four of them, but their defensive fragility is hard to ignore: just one clean sheet and two blanks at the other end. Their underlying numbers are equally unstable: 1.30 xG per game and 1.72 xGA, the second-worst in the league. They also average 3.9 saves per match (most in the league). Despite ranking third lowest for touches in the opposition box, they have still scored 21 goals in 13 games, suggesting a direct, high-risk approach. However, all four of their wins have come against teams currently in the bottom six.
Brommapojkarna have been more reliable on the road, with a W3-D1-L3 record that ranks as the sixth-best away form in the league. They have scored 12 and conceded nine in those games, averaging 1.71 goals for and 1.29 against. Their matches are slightly tighter, with four of seven away games going over 2.5 goals and three landing both teams to score. They have kept two clean sheets and failed to score twice away from home. Their overall stats tell a mixed story: they have scored 16 from an xG of 19, so finishing has been an issue, something that is supported by 31 big chances created and 23 missed. Still, they are second in the league for shots on target per match (5.1), showing they carry a consistent threat.
While Norrkoping tend to play open games with high shot volumes at both ends, Brommapojkarna’s away strength and more controlled defensive numbers suggest they could be well suited to expose Norrkoping’s lack of structure. Goals look likely again, but based on form and efficiency, the visitors may well feel this is a good opportunity to take something.
How the bookies view it: Goals with both teams to score
The bookmakers see this as a tightly balanced game, with Norrkoping priced at 6/4 (implied probability 40%), Brommapojkarna at 13/8 (38.1%), and the draw at 11/4 (26.7%). That slight edge for Norrkoping likely reflects home advantage rather than form, as Brommapojkarna have shown more consistency on the road while Norrkoping have struggled at home, sitting 12th in the home table.
Goal markets lean heavily toward another open match. Over 2.5 goals is just 11/20 (64.5% implied probability), and both teams to score is 19/40 (67.8%).
Head to Head: Honours even
The head-to-head record between Norrkoping and Brommapojkarna is remarkably even. Across 21 meetings since 2004, both sides have won nine times each, with three draws. In the last 10 matchups, the balance remains tight as each team has won four, with the other two ending level. There has been no dominant trend, and neither side has had a clear upper hand over time.
These games have also tended to deliver goals. Six of the last ten have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in six as well. On average, their meetings produce 2.6 goals per game.
Players to watch: Goals to finally come for Lind
Victor Lind has been a consistently active presence in Brommapojkarna’s attack this season, even if the goals have ot followed. He has played all 13 league games, taking 37 shots in total, an average of 2.85 per match with 15 of those on target. He has registered two or more shots in 11 of those 13 appearances, and hit the target at least once in nine of them, showing reliable shot volume and involvement in the final third.
Despite those numbers, he has only scored once from an xG of 3.1, indicating a clear underperformance in finishing. That gap suggests the goals should come if the underlying output continues. On the road, he has made seven appearances, taking 21 shots (three per game) and registering at least one shot on target in six of those seven, again reinforcing his reliability in away matches.
Lind’s high shot involvement, both home and away, and his tendency to hit the target regularly, make him a strong candidate for goals. While he has been wasteful in front of goal, the consistency in his numbers points to solid long-term value, especially against a Norrkoping defence that allows the most saves per match and has kept just one clean sheet all season.
Predicted line-ups
Norrkoping (4-3-3): Andersson; Neffati, Watson, Oppong, Kalley; Fransson, Traustason, Lushaku; Sigurgeirsson, Nyman, Jorgensen
Brommapojkarna (4-2-3-1): Blazevic; Hovland, Karlsson, Zanden, Orqvist; Ngouali, Ackermann; Arrhov, Kurochkin, Lind; Timossi
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score looks like a strong play for this matchup, based on both teams’ results, defensive records, and underlying metrics. Norrkoping’s home games have averaged 3.14 goals per match, with five of seven going over 2.5 and four seeing both teams score. They have only kept one clean sheet all season and have failed to score twice at home. Their xG against per game is 1.72 the second highest in the league whilst they allow the most saves per match (3.9), highlighting how often opponents are testing their goalkeeper.
Brommapojkarna are similarly built for open matches. Their away games have averaged 2.86 goals, with four of seven going over 2.5 and three landing both teams to score. They have scored in five of those seven games and conceded in five as well, with just two clean sheets. Offensively, they create 2.38 big chances per match the fourth-most in the league, but are second for big chances missed, which keeps games open.
Neither team defends particularly well, and both create enough chances to score. Given the high volume of shots on target, big chances, and poor clean sheet records, backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score is well-supported by the data.
GambleAware