The Premier League spotlight falls on St James’ Park this Monday evening as Newcastle host Liverpool in one of the standout fixtures of the early season. Kick-off is set for 8pm, with both sides looking to make statements for very different reasons.
Newcastle arrive after a goalless draw at Aston Villa, a result that owed much to their defensive organisation but also highlighted attacking shortcomings without Alexander Isak. With their top scorer sidelined amid transfer turmoil, Eddie Howe’s side created plenty of volume with 16 shots and 33 touches in the Villa box but managed only one on target. That lack of cutting edge could become a recurring theme until the striker situation is resolved. The Magpies were formidable at home last season, winning 12 league games at St James’ and keeping eight clean sheets, but their underlying numbers (55% xG ratio, 29.96 xPTS) suggest they slightly overachieved.
Liverpool, by contrast, opened with a wild 4-2 win over Bournemouth at Anfield. Arne Slot’s team produced 19 shots, 10 on target and 2.21 xG, looking every bit as dangerous as last year when they were the league’s best away side. They scored in all 19 away matches last season and posted a 68% xG ratio on the road, highlighting their control. New signing Florian Wirtz has been added to a forward line already led by Mohamed Salah, who contributed 29 goals and 18 assists in 2024/25.
Liverpool’s only concern lies at right-back, with Jeremie Frimpong injured and Conor Bradley not yet fully fit. Even so, Slot insists his side can cope. For Newcastle, the Isak saga overshadows preparations. Against a Liverpool side that thrived away from Anfield last season, Howe will need a near-perfect tactical plan to give his side a chance.
How the bookies view it: Goals on the agenda
Looking at the market, Newcastle are priced at 12/5 (29.4% implied chance) while the draw is 56/19 (25.3%). Liverpool are favourites at 11/10, which equates to a 47.6% chance of taking the points. Goals are strongly expected, with over 2.5 goals trading at 4/7 (63.6%) and both teams to score at 1/2 (66.7%).
Head to Head: Liverpool have a strong record
Over the last 20 meetings, Liverpool have dominated with 13 wins, Newcastle managing just two victories, and five draws. The goal difference stands at 41 scored by Liverpool vs 20 for Newcastle, a swing of +21 in Liverpool’s favour.
Recent history reinforces the trend. Last season Liverpool won 2-0 at Anfield in February, while the reverse at St James’ Park finished 3-3 in December. Newcastle did, however, claim the upper hand in March’s League Cup final, winning 2-1 at Wembley to end their long wait for silverware. Before that, Liverpool had beaten Newcastle in four consecutive league encounters, including the 4-2 at Anfield on New Year’s Day 2024 and a 2-1 away win in August 2023.
You have to go back to December 2015 for Newcastle’s last league win over Liverpool (2-0 at St James’). In the Premier League era, Liverpool’s superiority in this head-to-head has been a constant theme, though Newcastle’s cup triumph earlier this year shows they are capable of upsetting the balance on big occasions.
Players to watch: Pace could unsettle the Liverpool backline
Anthony Elanga looks a strong candidate for 1+ shot on target when Newcastle United face Liverpool at St James’ Park. The Swedish winger impressed on his debut away at Aston Villa, registering two shots, one on target, and generating 0.6 xG across 77 minutes. With Alexander Isak unavailable, Elanga’s direct pace and willingness to shoot gives him a clear role as Newcastle’s outlet on the right.
His record last season at Nottingham Forest also supports the angle. He hit at least one shot on target in 19 of his 31 Premier League starts (61%), despite playing in a team that created far fewer chances than Newcastle. At his new club, surrounded by better creators such as Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and Bruno Guimaraes, his output should only rise.
Liverpool, meanwhile, looked shaky defensively against Bournemouth in their 4-2 win. They conceded 1.70 xG, allowed 28 box touches and were repeatedly exposed by quick counters through midfield. That profile suits Elanga perfectly, and one accurate effort on goal feels a realistic expectation.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle United (4-3-3): Pope, Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn, Guimaraes, Tonali, Joelinton, Elanga, Gordon, Barnes
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Gomez, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks a strong angle for Monday’s clash at St James’ Park. The profiles of both clubs point towards chances and goals at each end.
Liverpool’s start against Bournemouth set the tone. They hit 19 shots, forced six saves, and generated 3.05 xG on target. Last season they were relentless travellers, averaging 11.26 shots in the box per away game which was by far the league’s best and scoring in all 19 away fixtures. That attacking threat is difficult to silence, even for a Newcastle side that prides itself on home clean sheets.
At the same time, Liverpool showed defensive frailty against Bournemouth, allowing 28 box touches and seven corners while conceding twice from 1.70 xG. Those gaps give Newcastle reason to believe they can find a way through, even without Isak. Howe’s side managed 33 touches in Villa’s box last weekend and averaged over nine shots in the box per home game last season, suggesting they have enough volume to create.
Underlying metrics also align with goals. Liverpool’s away matches in 2024/25 averaged 2.81 total xG, while Newcastle’s home games averaged 2.93. Both sides saw 63% of their respective fixtures go over 2.5 goals. Newcastle’s clean-sheet tendency often kept both teams to score down, but Liverpool’s ability to generate big chances consistently tilts the balance.
Big chance creation further strengthens the case. Liverpool averaged 2.6 per away game last season, while Newcastle averaged 2.1 at home. Combine those figures with both sides ranking top-six for shots on target, and the probability of goals at both ends increases.
Given the attacking profiles and defensive vulnerabilities shown already this season, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals stands out as a sensible play.
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