While Monza will be dropping down to Serie B regardless of their final results, Empoli's ticket to the lower tier has not yet been punched. Sit tight because this relegation battle might turn out to be the highlight of the penultimate round.
You will find few differences if you take a look at both Monza and Empoli's recent results. And the interesting part is that both sides ended their prolonged winless runs in the previous round with 2-1 wins. But before that happened, Monza went through 15 consecutive games without a win (L13, D2), while Empoli went as far as 20 games without winning. In fact, their dramatic triumph over Parma was their first win in 2025.
While Monza have nothing to fight for at this point, the next two games will be Empoli's most important this season. And the best news is that their assignments are the easiest out of all the teams that are near or in the drop zone.
How the bookies view it: Unbelievable away advantage
While both teams have had near-identically bad seasons, bookmakers believe that Empoli will leave everything on the pitch and return home with the three points. You can pick Monza at 4/1, while Empoli are a massive betting favourite with 3/4. Meanwhile, the draw is also available at 13/5.
Recent head to head: A very forgettable draw
While Empoli hold the all-time lead in the H2Hs, Monza snatched the three points in both previous occasions at the Brianteo. But the reality is that apart from those two wins, Monza have only beaten Empoli one other time in the last 20 H2Hs. In turn, Azzurri Empolesi won 11 times. The reverse fixture this season did not produce anything and ended in a 0-0 draw.
Players to watch: Henderson to see yellow again
Not a single player out of the 22 who will start on Sunday is worth the risk in this matchup, as neither team has a top-performing goalscorer. But if you want to bet on a player, you should watch out for Liam Henderson. No player in Serie A has committed more fouls than Henderson and he will certainly be on edge in this matchup. He could be a solid pick for a player booking in the second half of the match if he picks up an early foul or two.
Probable line-ups
Monza: Pizzignacco, Carboni, Palacios, Brorsson, Kyriakopoulos, Akpro, Bianco, Ciurria, Birindelli, Caprari, Petagna
Empoli: Vasquez, Marianucci, Ismajli, Viti, Gyasi, Grassi, Henderson, Pezzella, Fazzini, Cacace, Esposito
Anything else catch the eye?
Monza are the worst hosts in the league this season, having won only one of their 18 matches at the Brianteo. Empoli are right above them but what matters is that the Blues have had their best moments on the road this season. Well, three wins is nothing to be proud of, but it is more than they've achieved at home.
Empoli will hope to end the negative away streak at Monza and get one step closer to safety. With some luck, they might even end up above the drop zone after this round. There's no doubt that Monza will not make it easy for them and we even expect a goal exchange to kick off the fun. A curious stat shows that Empoli have not lost away from home against any of the teams below 15th place this season. And at the same time, all of their fixtures against teams from the bottom ended with both teams scoring goals.
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