Monaco and Toulouse meet at the Stade Louis II on Saturday in Ligue 1, with both sides looking to consolidate their top-half positions after encouraging starts.
Monaco sit seventh with 14 points, while Toulouse are just one point behind in eighth. Both clubs have shown plenty of attacking intent this season, and this fixture has all the ingredients to be one of the weekend’s most entertaining matches.
Monaco’s campaign under Adi Hutter has been lively. They have won four of eight, drawn two and lost two, scoring 17 and conceding 13. Their process data supports their league position: 15.7 xG for, 12.9 xGA and 13.2 xPTS suggest they are performing in line with expectation.
At home they remain unbeaten, scoring at least twice in every game and producing strong xG numbers in front of their own fans. Defensive control remains an issue though, with no clean sheets and goals conceded in all eight league matches.
Toulouse have followed a similar path under Carles Martinez. They also have four wins from eight, with 15 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their underlying numbers (13.1 xG, 10.0 xGA, 13.2 xPTS) mirror Monaco’s almost exactly. After a rocky September, Toulouse have responded well with back-to-back wins over Lyon and Metz, scoring six without reply. Their front line has looked sharper and their defensive structure more balanced, helped by a settled 3-4-3 system led by Emersonn.
Both managers will see this as a marker game and it is a chance to show they belong among the league’s top seven. Monaco’s attack, driven by Ansu Fati and Minamino, faces a Toulouse side that thrives on transitions and width. With both teams so closely matched statistically, it promises to be an even, attacking contest on the Riviera.
How the bookies view it: Hosts are favourites
Monaco are priced at 5/6 to win, which implies a 54.5% chance of victory, while the draw is 31/10 (around 24.4%) and Toulouse are 13/4 (about 23.5%). The market clearly leans toward a home win but expects an open game. Both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are listed at 8/13, giving each an implied probability of roughly 62%.
That aligns closely with the underlying data: Monaco have seen both teams score in 88% of their matches and Toulouse’s games average 3.4 total goals. The odds and probabilities together point to a high-scoring contest where Monaco are favourites but unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
Head to Head: History of goals
The recent history between Monaco and Toulouse points strongly toward goals and a home advantage for the side from the Principality. Across their last 20 Ligue 1 meetings, Monaco have won 11, drawn five and lost four, scoring 37 and conceding 22 at an average of 2.95 total goals per game.
They have been dominant at the Stade Louis II, winning seven of the last 10 home fixtures and averaging just over two goals per game there. Both teams have scored in seven of the last 10 meetings, and only once in that period has the fixture ended goalless.
The five most recent clashes have been competitive, producing two Monaco wins, two Toulouse victories and a draw, with four of those five games featuring goals at both ends. Toulouse tend to find a goal but rarely keep Monaco quiet, conceding in 18 of the last 20 head-to-heads. The long-term pattern and current form align neatly: Monaco usually edge these matches, and they almost always deliver entertainment and goals.
Players to watch: Magri to make his mark
Frank Magri looks a strong pick to register at least one shot on target when Toulouse face Monaco. The forward has been a consistent threat in recent weeks, recording an effort on target in each of his last three matches and in four of the last five.
His role in Carles Martinez’s 3-4-3 gives him licence to drift across the front line, often finding space between full-backs and centre-halves. Magri has taken 17 shots in eight Ligue 1 appearances, seven of which have hit the target, showing good accuracy and confidence in front of goal.
Toulouse’s attacking process supports him well, producing over 13 xG and averaging more than 12 shots per game. Monaco’s defensive record adds to the appeal as they have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and allow 12.5 shots per match, with 62% of those coming from inside the box. With both teams expected to trade chances, Magri should again test the goalkeeper at least once.
Predicted line-ups
Monaco (3-4-3): Kohn, Kehrer, Salisu, Henrique, Diatta, Teze, Coulibaly, Ouattara, Akliouche, Biereth, Fati
Toulouse (3-4-3): Restes, Nicolaisen, Cresswell, Sidibe, Methalie, Francis, Casseres Jr., Emersonn, Gboho, Magri, Donnum
Anything else catch the eye?
The numbers point strongly toward goals when Monaco host Toulouse. Monaco lead Ligue 1 for both teams to score frequency, with seven of their eight matches producing goals for each side and all four home games finishing that way. Their matches average 3.75 total goals, the highest in the division outside Marseille, and they are yet to keep a clean sheet.
Monaco’s attack ranks among the most efficient in France. They have scored 17 times from 96 shots, converting 17.7% with an xG per shot of 0.16 which is an elite output. They also rank top six for big chances created and average over 2.0 xG at home. Defensively, they face 12.5 shots per match with 62% of those coming from inside the box, so chances at both ends are consistent.
Toulouse’s games tell a similar story. They average 3.38 total goals, have scored in every away match, and have created 13.1 xG from 102 shots. Their conversion rate (14.7%) is comfortably above the league average, while their opponents have generated 10.0 xGA against them. That open balance is reflected in their xPTS of 13.2, identical to Monaco’s.
Both teams’ recent matches support the same pattern. Monaco’s last five have produced 19 goals, while Toulouse’s last three have delivered 12. Across those games, each side has allowed more than one xGA on average and created at least 1.5 xG themselves. The trends are consistent with open, attacking football with end-to-end exchanges.
Given Monaco’s 100% both teams to score home record, Toulouse’s scoring streak on the road, and both sides’ high shot quality and volume, the data heavily supports an attacking outcome. The most logical play is over 2.5 goals and both teams to score which is a bet that aligns perfectly with how these sides approach every Ligue 1 fixture.
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