Monday night football in the Championship sees Millwall welcome Watford to The Den in front of the Sky Sports cameras. Both sides have endured frustrating starts, and this clash looks an early-season test of character as much as quality.
Millwall come into the game after salvaging a 1-1 draw at Charlton, extending their remarkable unbeaten derby record to 29 years. Ra’ees Bangura-Williams came off the bench to score late on, but Alex Neil was quick to admit his side’s first-half display was poor. Two straight home defeats have dented confidence, but the underlying numbers suggest performances have not been as bad as results imply. Over the last four games they have earned 6.39 xPTS, a top-six figure, and their xG output at home has been competitive, even if goals have not flowed.
Watford, meanwhile, slipped to a 1-0 home defeat to Blackburn last time out. Paulo Pezzolano’s side have won just once in six league games and remain without a clean sheet. Their xPTS over the last four sits at just 3.42, one of the lowest in the division, underlining the lack of balance in their displays. Defensively, they have been easy to open up with 1.40 xGA, and in attack they have failed to score more than once in any Championship fixture so far.
Pezzolano also has selection concerns, with several players still regaining sharpness after the international break. Millwall are integrating younger players into the squad but are at least settled in shape and approach.
With the spotlight of Monday night football, the pressure on both clubs will be high. Millwall’s aggressive style at The Den and Watford’s ongoing struggles at both ends make this an intriguing encounter under the lights.
How the bookies view it: Hornets wont sting the Lions
Millwall are priced at 11/10 (47.6% implied probability) to win Monday night’s Championship clash with Watford at The Den, while the draw is 49/20 (29.0%) and an away win for the Hornets is 11/4 (26.7%).
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is offered at 11/8 (42.1%) and both teams to score is 1/1 (50%).
Head to Head: Lions edge it
Across the last six competitive meetings between Millwall and Watford, the Lions have had the edge with three wins, one draw, and two defeats (W3-D1-L2). The goal difference over that stretch is narrow at 7-5, averaging +0.33 per game in Millwall’s favour.
Recent encounters at The Den have been particularly positive for Millwall. They won 1-0 in March 2024 and 3-0 in October 2022, while also recording a 0-0 draw in January 2021. Their only home defeat in this sequence came on the opening day of the 2024-25 season, a 3-2 loss.
In cup competition, Millwall also beat Watford 1-0 in the FA Cup in January 2017, showing consistency in this fixture across different formats.
Overall, Millwall’s record reads three wins from their last four home games against Watford, with two clean sheets in that period. Watford, meanwhile, have not scored more than once at The Den since April 2015.
Players to watch: Strong start by Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli looks a strong candidate in the 2+ shots market for Millwall’s clash with Watford. The winger has been remarkably consistent since joining the Lions, registering exactly two attempts in all five of his Championship appearances so far. That 100% hit rate highlights both his confidence and his role in Alex Neil’s system, where he is encouraged to take defenders on and cut inside to shoot.
Neghli’s debut at Norwich was particularly eye-catching, with four efforts and a goal, but even against tougher opponents like Middlesbrough and Sheffield United, he has still managed to get his shots away. His xG per match has consistently sat between 0.1 and 0.3, showing that he regularly works his way into scoring positions.
Watford’s defence, meanwhile, has yet to keep a clean sheet this season and is allowing an above-average number of shots in the box. With Neghli’s consistency and Watford’s defensive record, backing him for 2+ shots makes clear sense.
Predicted line-ups
Millwall (4-4-2): Benda, Leonard, Crama, Cooper, Bryan, Neghli, Luongo, Cundle, Emakhu, Corburn, Ivanovic
Watford (3-5-2): Selvik, Alleyne, Keben, Pollock, Petris, Baah, Sissoko, Kyprianou, Vata, Kjerrumgaard, Doumbia
Anything else catch the eye?
The data points towards a bet focused on Millwall resilience and a tight contest. Millwall double chance, Millwall over 0 goals, and under 4 match goals combines well.
Millwall’s output has been stronger than their results. Despite modest returns in the table, they have posted 6.39 xPTS (sixth highest over that period) across the last four games, compared with Watford’s 3.42 (21st). That gap highlights the Lions’ ability to create pressure, particularly at home, where they average over 11 shots per game. With Watford still searching for their first clean sheet of the season, Millwall scoring at least once looks highly realistic.
Watford’s attack has been blunt. They average fewer than 10 shots per game, with only three goals scored in six league fixtures, and their xG tallies have dipped below 1.0 xG in most outings. They lack penetration in the final third and have yet to hit two goals in a match, which reinforces the case for keeping the goal line low. On the road their npXG so far this season is just 0.5.
Both sides have a habit of being involved in tight, scrappy contests rather than end-to-end games. Watford’s two away matches this season have finished with a combined total of just three goals, while Millwall’s home matches have also stayed relatively contained. Both teams sit in the bottom half of the league for shots on target per match, which points strongly towards a controlled, low-scoring encounter.
By covering Millwall not to lose, backing them to find the net, and limiting the total to under four goals, you’re aligning with both the eye test and the underlying data. It’s a smart combination that reflects Millwall’s competitive home output, Watford’s ongoing struggles in attack, and the general lack of goal-heavy fixtures involving either side.
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