Midtjylland and Hibernian meet on Thursday at the MCH Arena in Herning in the first leg of their Europa League second qualifying round tie. The hosts have already begun their domestic season, playing out an entertaining 3-3 draw at home to Odense, while Hibernian are still in pre-season with the Scottish Premiership not starting for a few more weeks.
Midtjylland finished second in the Danish Superliga last season with a record of W19-D5-L8, just one point behind the champions. They overperformed their underlying numbers, as their xPTS ranked only sixth, and they scored 64 goals from 54.5 xG, suggesting clinical finishing. At home, they scored in all 16 league matches, winning 14 of them and keeping five clean sheets, though four came against bottom-half teams.
Hibs finished third in Scotland, which matched their xPTS ranking, reflecting a more consistent performance relative to expectations. They scored 62 goals from 57.3 xG and conceded 50 from 48.4 xGA. Away from home they failed to score in five of sixteen games and managed only four clean sheets, just two of those against top-half sides.
Midtjylland come into the tie match-sharp and full of attacking threat but with some defensive questions. Hibs will need to overcome their lack of competitive football and an inconsistent away record to stay in the tie.
How the bookies view it: Midtjylland are clear favourites
Midtjylland are clear favourites for the first leg at MCH Arena, priced at 4/9, which implies about a 69% chance of winning. The draw is 19/5, implying around a 21% chance, while Hibernian are 6/1, which suggests about a 14% chance of an away win. The market also expects goals, with over 2.5 goals at 4/7 (about 64% chance) and both teams to score at 8/11 (roughly 58% chance).
Head to Head: First Meeting
Midtjylland and Hibernian have never played each other before, so this upcoming Europa League clash will mark their first ever meeting
Players to watch: Dju to fire
Franculino Dju looks a strong bet to score anytime against Hibernian. He started this league season with two goals from four shots in Midtjylland’s 3-3 draw with Odense, showing his sharpness and confidence in front of goal. Last season he scored 11 goals and added three assists in 29 league appearances, including nine goals and three assists in his 22 starts. When starting he averaged over 2.5 shots per game, with about one on target, and scored in more than 40% of his starts.
In Europe last season he scored once in just 219 minutes, taking eight shots with four on target. His ability to find good positions, steady shot volume, and current form make him a very realistic candidate to score here against a vulnerable Hibs defence.
Predicted line-ups
Midtjylland (4-4-2): Lossl; Mbabu, Sorensen, Lee, Bak; Gogorza, Bravo, Silva, Osorio; Dju, Buksa
Hibernian (likely 4-3-3): Smith; Cadden, Ohora, Ekpiteta, Miller; Levitt, Hoilett, Campbell; Bowie, Boyle, Klidje
Anything else catch the eye?
Midtjylland to win and over 1.5 goals looks like a strong bet here. The hosts scored in every home league game last season and averaged over two goals per match at MCH Arena. Their opening game of this season ended 3-3, showing their attack is already sharp.
Hibernian kept only two clean sheets away against top-half Scottish sides last season and conceded in most trips to better opponents. They also failed to score in nearly a third of their away games, which makes them vulnerable if Midtjylland take the lead early.
The Danes’ home matches were often open and high scoring. Their last European campaign featured over 1.5 goals in nine of ten matches, and their domestic games followed a similar pattern. The fitness edge is also in Midtjylland’s favour, as Hibs are still in pre-season and may struggle to match their tempo.
With Midtjylland’s record of scoring in every home game and Hibs’ defensive record away to strong opposition, backing the hosts to win and for the match to see at least two goals makes sense statistically and situationally.
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