The Championship returns on Friday night with Middlesbrough hosting West Bromwich Albion at the Riverside Stadium, a clash between two sides with contrasting profiles early in the season.
Middlesbrough sit top of the table after five matches, collecting 13 points and extending their unbeaten start with a stoppage-time equaliser at Preston last weekend. Rob Edwards’ men have been clinical in tight games, twice coming from behind at Deepdale to salvage a point.
Their strong opening is backed by defensive resilience, conceding just three goals so far, though expected points suggest they are slightly ahead of where they should be. Still, belief is growing on Teesside, helped by the arrival of summer signings such as Sontje Hansen, who opened his account at Preston, and teenager Sverre Nypan, already making an impact. Slovakia striker David Strelec also made his debut from the bench.
West Brom, meanwhile, slipped to a frustrating home defeat against Derby County on Saturday, a result that soured the club’s 125th anniversary celebrations. Ryan Mason’s side dominated possession and chances, only to be undone by a late counterpunch. That result leaves them with 10 points, sliding from second to fifth, though xPTS of 7.8 shows they have been more in line with underlying numbers than Boro.
Team news could play its part. Edwards has few absentees, though Jonny Howson remains sidelined, while Hansen may earn a first league start. Albion will monitor Jayson Molumby after he limped off late against Derby, while forward Daryl Dike is a long-term absentee.
Boro are chasing a fifth straight home win in all competitions, but West Brom’s away record has been steady, winning twice on the road already. Both sides will see this as an early benchmark game with promotion implications.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Middlesbrough are slight favourites at 118/100, which implies a 45.9% chance of victory, while West Brom are priced at 5/2 (28.6%) and the draw at 13/5 (27.8%). The market is split on goals, with over 2.5 goals at evens reflecting a 50% probability, while both teams to score is 4/5, implying a 55.6% chance.
Taken together, the odds suggest a tight contest where Middlesbrough are marginally more likely to edge it, but the bookmakers see a greater chance of both sides scoring than of the match producing three or more goals.
Head to Head: Boro enjoy the upper hand
Middlesbrough have enjoyed the upper hand in recent meetings with West Brom, winning four of the last five clashes and going unbeaten in their last four at the Riverside. The Baggies have not won away to Boro since October 2019, while overall the last 14 encounters show Boro with seven wins, four draws, and just three defeats, edging the goal difference 17–13.
Recent contests have also leaned towards tight affairs, with four of the past six finishing under 2.5 goals and only three of the last eight Championship meetings seeing both teams score.
Players to watch: Whittaker to keep the run going
Morgan Whittaker looks a solid pick in the shots on target market for Middlesbrough’s clash with West Brom. The attacker has landed a shot on target in both of Boro’s home games so far, testing the goalkeeper against Swansea and Sheffield United.
His role under Rob Edwards gives him freedom to drift inside from wide positions, and he has averaged just over two shots per game at the Riverside. Whittaker has also been heavily involved in build-up play, recording 14 shot-creating actions across five matches, which underlines how regularly he finds himself in advanced positions.
While his xG numbers are modest, the consistency of hitting the target at home, coupled with Boro’s strong attacking start, makes him a good value play to keep that run going against a West Brom defence that can allow shooting opportunities.
Predicted line-ups
Middlesbrough (3-4-3): Brynn; Ayling, Jones, Lenihan; Brittain, Hackney, Morris, Targett; Whittaker, Conway, Sene.
West Brom (4-2-3-1): Griffiths; Mepham, Phillips, Campbell, Styles; Molumby, Mowatt; Wallace, Price, Johnston; Heggebo.
Anything else catch the eye?
A low-scoring encounter looks the most convincing angle at the Riverside.
Middlesbrough’s home matches have been defined by control rather than chaos. Across two league games at the Riverside, they have generated just 0.65 xG per match while conceding only 0.55. That has translated into a perfect defensive record at home, with two clean sheets and not a single goal allowed. They rank first in the division for shots on target conceded at home, giving up just half a shot on target per 90 minutes.
West Brom’s away form underlines the trend. They average only 1.35 xG on their travels, but balance that with a defensive figure of 1.60. Their matches on the road rarely open up, with only 11 total shots faced per game. Albion’s reliance on set pieces and low-margin opportunities means their contests tend to be tight, particularly when visiting strong defensive sides.
The recent four-game form numbers also point towards caution. Middlesbrough have seen just 1.02 npxG created in that stretch, but allowed only 0.66, producing three clean sheets. West Brom’s last four outings have averaged 2.25 goals combined, while they themselves have created four big chances and conceded only two across their last four fixtures.
From a broader perspective, Albion rank mid-table for both shots in the box and shots on target for but are among the top five at limiting big chances against. Middlesbrough are even stronger in that department, conceding fewer than three shots inside the area per game at home.
Add in the head-to-head history which has seen four of the last five league meetings have ended under 2.5 and the case strengthens further. With Boro excelling defensively and Albion struggling to turn control into cutting edge, goals may be in short supply once again.
GambleAware