The Championship spotlight falls on the Riverside on Saturday as Middlesbrough welcome Sheffield United in what already feels like a fascinating early-season test. Both clubs arrived in August with ambitions of promotion, but their opening weeks have painted contrasting pictures in results, if not in performance.
Middlesbrough, under Rob Edwards, have made a flying start. Three wins from three have lifted them into second place, with six goals scored and just one conceded. That looks like promotion form on the surface, but the underlying data tells a slightly more cautious story. Their xPTS sits at 4.94, only seventh-best in the division, suggesting their perfect nine points is an overperformance. A modest non-penalty xG return of 0.97 per game shows their attack has not been prolific, yet their defensive numbers are among the strongest in the league, conceding only 0.57 npxGA on average. The balance leans heavily towards control at the back.
Sheffield United, meanwhile, sit bottom of the table after three defeats and six goals conceded without finding the net themselves. Ruben Selles has admitted the situation is tough, but insists performances deserve more. Their xPTS of 4.33 ranks ninth, just behind Middlesbrough, underlining how misleading the league table currently is. They are producing 1.17 npxG per game, which places them in the top half for attacking output, and their defensive process of 1.03 npxGA is broadly mid-table. The problem has been a failure to convert chances at one end and errors being punished at the other.
The summer left United adjusting to departures of key players, while Boro kept their core together and added selectively. That stability shows in early results. Yet when judged on process, this meeting looks far more balanced than the standings alone would suggest.
How the bookies view it: Hosts slight favourites
Middlesbrough are priced at 122/100, which gives them a 45% implied chance of winning, while Sheffield United are 23/10 with a 30% chance, and the draw is 5/2 at 28.6%. The market makes Boro slight favourites, but nowhere near dominant, reflecting their strong start but also the fact their underlying numbers are less convincing.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 is offered at evens, implying a 50% chance, while both teams to score is 4/5, or a 55.6% probability.
Head to Head: Balanced record
Middlesbrough and Sheffield United have a fairly balanced head-to-head record, with Boro holding a slight edge overall. Since 2006 they have met 18 times in the league, Middlesbrough winning nine, United taking six, and three ending level, with a combined 41 goals scored at an average of 2.28 per game. Recent clashes have been competitive and evenly matched, with the last five meetings producing two wins each and one draw.
The most recent encounters saw Sheffield United win 3–1 at Bramall Lane in February 2025, while Middlesbrough edged the home game 1–0 earlier that season. Before that, Boro won 3–1 away in February 2023, Sheffield United claimed a 4–1 home win in March 2022, and the August 2022 game at the Riverside ended 2–2. The recent history suggests neither side has held dominance for long spells, underlining how tight and unpredictable this fixture can often be.
Players to watch: Blades sharp at set pieces
Tyler Bindon has quickly emerged as one of Sheffield United’s main aerial outlets. Across his first three Championship appearances this season, the centre-back has attempted five shots, with four of them coming from headers. None have hit the target so far, but the underlying quality is there whilst his efforts carry a combined 0.5 xG, which is unusually high for a defender this early in the campaign. On a per-90 basis, Bindon is averaging 1.73 shots, well above the norm for Championship centre-backs.
The trend is no accident. Sheffield United rank with the second-highest set-piece xG in the league, highlighting how often their routines are generating chances. With deliveries consistently finding Bindon, it feels more a matter of time than luck before one is converted. For punters, that makes him an intriguing long-shot play in the shots markets and a realistic outsider in the anytime scorer market.
Predicted line-ups
Middlesbrough (3-4-3): Brynn; Brittain, Jones, Fry; Ayling, Hackney, Morris, Azaz; Whittaker, Conway, Silvera
Sheffield United (4-3-3): Cooper; Godfrey, Bindon, Robinson, Burrows; Hamer, O’Hare, Peck; Cannon, Campbell, Barry
Anything else catch the eye?
Sheffield United’s season has opened in the worst possible way: three defeats, no goals scored, and six conceded. On paper, they look like the division’s weakest side. But the underlying data points to a team playing at a far higher level than the table suggests, which makes the +0.25 Asian Handicap an appealing option against Middlesbrough.
Start with chance creation. United have averaged 5.67 shots in the box per game, a respectable output that matches sides operating around mid-table. They have also generated 2.67 shots on target per game, which suggests they are at least working goalkeepers regularly. The issue has been end product, as finishing variance has left them without a goal. Defensively, they are giving up more than they would like with 5.0 shots on target and 7.0 shots in the box conceded per game, but they have not been carved open repeatedly. In fact, they have created two big chances and conceded two big chances, a balanced return that hardly fits their minus six goal difference.
Now compare that with Middlesbrough. Edwards’ side have taken maximum points but remain limited going forward. They average 3.67 shots on target per game and actually have a negative shots-in-box differential, with opponents producing slightly more in that area. Boro have also created just two big chances all season, the same as United, which underlines how fine the margins really are.
Middlesbrough’s nine points have come from 4.94 xPTS, an overperformance of more than four points. United, by contrast, sit on zero points from 4.33 xPTS. When adjusted for process, these sides are performing on a similar level. That makes the +0.25 handicap, which covers a draw and half-wins if United match Boro, a value angle.
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