The Championship weekend begins at the Riverside Stadium on Friday night as Middlesbrough host Ipswich Town, a clash between two sides quietly finding form after slow starts.
Middlesbrough’s early weeks were patchy, but Rob Edwards’ side have started to show more control and resilience at home. They have beaten Swansea, Sheffield United, and West Brom, and drawn with Stoke, a run that looks stronger when viewed through the underlying numbers.
Swansea sit 12th in the table but eighth on xPTS and fifth on away xG ratio, Sheffield United are 17th on xPTS, West Brom 14th, and Stoke 16th. None have been pushovers, yet Boro have conceded just twice across those matches.
Their defensive base remains their biggest strength, ranking among the league’s best for xGA and clean sheet rate at home. However, their attacking process is still developing, with only mid-table numbers for shots and shots in the box ratio.
Ipswich arrive in far better rhythm than a month ago. After a huge summer turnover, Kieran McKenna has finally had his new-look side fully available, and the impact has been immediate.
Since the Sheffield United game when all his key players were fit and available, Ipswich have gone W3-D1-L0, scoring 11 and conceding three, including a confident 3-1 win over local rivals Norwich last time out. Their xG process has stabilised, and their attacking fluency has returned, with multiple players now contributing goals and assists.
This fixture pairs two teams trending upward in different ways with Middlesbrough through defensive solidity and structure, Ipswich through attacking sharpness and cohesion. With both sides in the top half for xPTS over the last month, it promises to be a well-balanced contest between Edwards’ measured control and McKenna’s revitalised forward unit.
How the bookies view it: Tractor Boys favourites
Middlesbrough are priced at 15/8 to win, which implies a 34% chance of victory, while the draw at 47/20 gives an implied probability of around 30%.
Ipswich are slight favourites at 8/5, suggesting a 38% chance of taking all three points. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is available at 11/10 (around a 48% chance), while both teams to score is priced at 11/13, implying a 54% likelihood of each side finding the net.
Head to Head: Hosts hold the edge
Middlesbrough and Ipswich have met 10 times in the Championship over the past decade, with Middlesbrough holding the edge. They have won five of those encounters, drawn three, and lost two, giving them a positive goal difference of +7 (15 scored, eight conceded) and an average margin of +0.7 goals per game.
Recent meetings have been fairly even. Last season’s fixtures ended in a 1-1 draw at Portman Road and a 2-0 away win for Ipswich at the Riverside. Before that, Middlesbrough had enjoyed a strong spell, going unbeaten in five against Ipswich between 2017 and 2019, including three wins to nil.
Historically, Middlesbrough have averaged 2.3 goals per game in this fixture compared to 1.5 for Ipswich, while the visitors have scored in just two of the last six visitors to the Riverside.
Players to watch: Jaden to star again
Jaden Philogene-Bidace comes into this match in excellent form and full of confidence. He has registered eight shots on target in his last three starts, underlining just how active he has been in Ipswich’s attacking phases.
His hat-trick against Sheffield United was a turning point, showcasing his sharp finishing and movement off the left, and he backed that up with another impressive performance against Norwich, scoring with a superb long-range effort in the 3-1 win.
Since Ipswich’s summer overhaul finally settled, Philogene has looked like one of the key beneficiaries of the team’s improved structure. The supply from midfield and the fluid front four have given him license to attack defenders more often, and his confidence in one-v-one situations is clear from his increased shot volume and willingness to shoot from distance.
With Ipswich unbeaten in their last four and scoring 11 goals in that spell, Philogene’s form has mirrored the team’s rise. His combination of pace, directness, and end product makes him a strong candidate to register another shot on target and a credible anytime scorer option in what should be a high-tempo game against Middlesbrough.
Predicted line-ups
Middlesbrough (3-4-2-1): Brynn, Ayling, Fry, Jones, Brittain, Targett, Morris, Hackney, Sene, Hansen, Conway
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Palmer, Davis, Kipre, O’Shea, Furlong, Cajuste, Matusiwa, Philogene-Bidace, Szmodics, Egeli, Hirst
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Ipswich on the draw-no-bet line at Middlesbrough looks a strong angle given recent form and process trends.
Since all of Kieran McKenna’s summer signings became available, Ipswich have taken ten points from four games, scoring 11 goals and conceding just three. Over that stretch, their attacking data has been excellent: averaging 13.5 shots per match, 5.3 on target, and producing an xG ratio close to 60%. They have created nine big chances in those four fixtures, the fourth-highest total in the Championship during that period, showing how much more incisive their attack has become.
Their recent away numbers also deserve context. While their overall xG ratio sits just below 50%, those games came against strong home sides – Birmingham (6th on xPTS), Bristol City (3rd), and Preston (10th). Against those opponents, Ipswich still generated at least 0.8 xG in each match and averaged more shots on target than they allowed. The underlying process suggests that their away output will improve against teams with less sustained attacking volume.
Middlesbrough’s home form looks solid, but the deeper data hints at vulnerabilities. They rank only 20th for shots-in-box ratio and mid-table for shots-on-target ratio at the Riverside, relying more on efficiency and defensive shape than consistent attacking pressure. Over the last four matches, they sit ninth on xPTS and just 18th for touches in the box ratio, evidence of a side controlling games without dominating territory.
Ipswich’s recent sharpness, combined with Boro’s modest attacking metrics, makes the visitors a sensible value play. With McKenna’s side finding rhythm and confidence, Ipswich Draw No Bet offers protection against a low-scoring draw while still aligning with their improving underlying process and attacking momentum.
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