The Premier League returns on Saturday with Manchester City hosting Everton at the Etihad Stadium, and Pep Guardiola’s side will be eager to pick up where they left off before the international break.
City went into the pause in imperious form, unbeaten in seven and having won five of those, including a 1-0 victory away to Brentford just before the break. Erling Haaland’s early finish was enough to secure the points that day and mark Guardiola’s 250th Premier League win which was achieved in 55 games quicker than any other manager in the competition’s history.
That result was another sign of City’s control and consistency. Over the last month and a half, they have looked like a side completely at ease with their process, ranking inside the top three for xG, xPTS and non-penalty xGA.
Even with several players away on international duty, the expectation is that they they resume their rhythm quickly, especially with Haaland in absurd form. Including internationals, he has not gone a game without scoring since the end of August, hitting 19 goals in just 10 appearances.
Everton, meanwhile, arrive in decent shape despite sitting mid-table. They have steadied themselves defensively in recent weeks and have started to find better balance under pressure.
Their underlying data reflects that as they are ranked mid-pack for xG ratio and xPTS but with a notable improvement in chance creation compared to early September. The problem this weekend is that their standout player, Jack Grealish, is ineligible to face his parent club.
Without Grealish’s spark, Everton will likely sit deep and try to frustrate City, knowing that few sides escape the Etihad unpunished. With City’s momentum building and Haaland in unrelenting form, the defending champions are heavy favourites to continue their unbeaten run and reassert control at the top of the table.
How the bookies view it: City strong favourites
Manchester City are strong favourites at 21/50, which implies a win probability of around 70%. The draw at 19/5 suggests a 21% chance, while Everton at 13/2 is given just a 13% likelihood of taking all three points. That reflects City’s dominance in this fixture, winning 15 of the last 20 meetings and unbeaten in 18 of the last 19.
The goal markets lean slightly towards an open game, with over 2.5 goals at 3/4 implying a 57% chance, while both teams to score at 1/1 is a straight 50-50 call. Even so, recent trends suggest control rather than chaos, as four of City’s last five league victories over the Toffees have come in matches featuring under 3.5 goals.
Everton’s limited attacking options and City’s defensive consistency strengthen the case for a lower-scoring but routine home win.
Head to Head: City strong against Toffees
Manchester City have completely dominated their recent meetings with Everton, winning 15 of the last 20 across all competitions, drawing four and losing only once. Over that stretch, City have scored 44 goals and conceded just 15, averaging almost three goals per game with a goal difference of +29.
Everton’s only victory in that run came back in January 2017, and since then City have been unbeaten in 18 of the last 19 encounters. Recent results underline that gap in quality and control as City have kept 10 clean sheets during this period and have conceded just once in the last five meetings, winning 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 2-0 and 1-0.
Players to watch: Haaland to score as usual
Erling Haaland looks an outstanding anytime scorer bet against Everton. The Norwegian has been in unstoppable form since late August, scoring in every game across club and country. He has produced 21 goals in 12 appearances this season, including nine in seven Premier League matches.
His underlying numbers are just as strong, averaging 4.4 shots per 90 minutes with 56% on target and an xG of 0.83 per 90.
At the Etihad he remains almost automatic. He has scored in every home league game this season and hit two or more in three of them. Everton, meanwhile, have conceded in all of their last five away matches and allowed an average of 7.5 shots inside the box per game.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City (4-3-3): Donnarumma; O’Reilly, Dias, Gvardiol, Nunes; Gonzalez, Reijnders, Doku; Foden, Haaland, Savinho
Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford, O’Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko, Gueye, Garner, Dibling, McNeil, Ndiaye, Barry
Anything else catch the eye?
Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals looks the most logical way into Saturday’s game at the Etihad. City’s dominance under Pep Guardiola rarely translates into chaotic score lines as their control-based style has limited opponents while managing games efficiently once ahead.
Across their last seven matches, City have conceded only four times, recording four clean sheets and allowing an average of just 0.74 xGA per game. Their non-penalty xGA sits at 0.94 for the season, third best in the league, and they have conceded only three big chances in total.
City’s shot control is also exceptional: they have averaged 13 shots to just 10 against, but with a far higher shot-on-target ratio of 58%. That ability to create consistent pressure without overextending keeps most of their wins within reasonable score lines.
Everton’s attacking data supports the unders angle. They rank outside the top ten for non-penalty xG, at just 1.03 per game, and have managed fewer than 7.0 shots inside the box in five of their last seven. Their big-chance ratio sits at 45%, while their last four matches have seen under 3.5 goals every time. Away from home, they average only 0.9 xG and have conceded 1.3.
Haaland’s relentless finishing ensures City almost always find a breakthrough, but Guardiola’s side are rarely in a rush to add unnecessary gloss once they’re ahead.
With Everton missing Jack Grealish, who has been central to their best attacking play, their threat in transition drops further. Everything points towards a routine City victory played at City’s tempo rather than a goal-laden spectacle. Man City to win and under 3.5 goals fits the data and the pattern perfectly.
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