After finally securing their first win of the season last week, Mainz will face their toughest assignment yet when they welcome Borussia Dortmund at the Mewa Arena in Round 5.
Mainz took their time to find their first Bundesliga win of the season. The team had a positive start overall, securing their place in the UEFA Conference League and the next stage of the DFB Pokal, but needed four rounds to find success in the top flight. Bo Henriksen’s side has been troubled by injuries and suspensions early in the campaign, but the 4-1 thrashing at Augsburg suggests better days could be coming. Defence has been a long-term issue, as Mainz have not kept a clean sheet in the Bundesliga in 15 consecutive games.
Niko Kovac’s Dortmund can boast their best league start in a decade, as they are one of only two teams that remain undefeated. They are obviously far from Bayern Munich’s level but it must feel great for BVB who’ve endured some rough patches over the past few years. However, Kovac will need to come up with a new plan for Mainz, as Dortmund lost twice in a row at the Mewa Arena and neither match was ever close.
How the bookies view it: BVB to end the bad away streak
Bookmakers realize that this will be a much more difficult match for Dortmund and give them a smaller advantage, although they remain the betting favourites. You can currently pick Mainz at 11/5, while Dortmund are available at 11/10. The draw is fairly high-priced at 27/10.
Recent head-to-head: Two home wins last season
This will be the 39th Bundesliga meeting between Mainz and Dortmund, and the visitors have a solid advantage in the numbers. Borussia have won 21 times next to just seven wins for the 05ers. A total of 10 matches ended level. More importantly, we should note that Mainz won the last two times as host, beating Dortmund 3-0 and 3-1 over the last two seasons. And also, Dortmund won only one of the last five H2Hs overall, which should give some reason for doubts in the away camp.
Players to watch: Nebel is back and ready for Dortmund
Serhou Guirassy had back-to-back below average performances for Dortmund, which is unusual for him, especially after scoring in all four matches before last week. He will never be a bad pick but we have different ideas this time.
Paul Nebel returned from his suspension last week and Mainz began playing much better immediately. His impact is huge whenever he is on the pitch and he proved it again by scoring. He was the best player for Mainz in both games against Dortmund last season, scoring a goal on both occasions.
Probable line-ups
Mainz: Zentner, Costa, Bell, Hanche-Olsen, Widmer, Amiri, Sano, Mwene, Nebel, Nordin, Sieb
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini, Ryerson, Sabitzer, Nmecha, Svensson, Adeyemi, Beier, Guirassy
Anything else catch the eye?
Statistics suggest a high-scoring match, as eight of the last 10 H2Hs featured goals on both ends, while seven also finished with over 2.5 goals. While Mainz are at the bottom of the table when it comes to average goals per match, Dortmund scored 13 goals across their last five fixtures. Last week’s match with Wolfsburg was the first time they scored less than two goals in 11 Bundesliga fixtures.
We wouldn’t suggest betting on Dortmund as Mainz can be an unbreakable host, and the risk extends beyond our comfort zone. But you can bet on goals with considerable confidence.
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