With a single win from the last five Bundesliga rounds, Mainz need an immediate restart to their season after the latest international break, while Bayer Leverkusen will be hoping for some consistency after weeks of lackluster performances.
Mainz’s best Bundesliga campaign since 2016 sent the team to the UEFA Conference League, but they haven’t been able to cope with the pressure of playing on two fronts so far. A repeat of last season’s 6th place finish in the top flight already feels impossible, as the 05ers are among the bottom three in the table, with a single win in six rounds.
Losing to teams like RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund can be expected, but Mainz hit rock bottom when they lost 4-0 away at newcomers Hamburger right before the latest international break. And what’s worse is that their home form is far from ideal either, as Mainz last won a Bundesliga home fixture in February.
Meanwhile, Bayer Leverkusen continue the rebuild after the latest transfer window and Erik ten Hag’s brief stint as manager. But while Die Werkself are unbeaten since Kasper Hjulmand took charge, they managed to only win three out of six games (D3).
And the big negative has been their inability to maintain a goal lead, as Leverkusen were ahead in all three draws but allowed equalisers after the 70th minute. Nevertheless, Bayer should feel positive after the latest match, as they finally won with a clean sheet for the first time under Hjulmand.
How the bookies view it: Close but not in Mainz's favour
Bookmakers predict the match will be very competitive and, accordingly, there is no clear favorite in terms of odds. Bayer Leverkusen have the edge at 27/20, but Mainz’s chances are not far off at 19/10. Alternatively, you can also back the draw at 5/2.
Recent head-to-head: Die Werkself lead 6 to 2
While Mainz and Bayer Leverkusen have produced a bunch of thrilling clashes in recent years, we can’t exactly call their rivalry competitive. Die Werkself have a considerable advantage with six wins to two in the last 10 H2Hs, including three wins in the last four games.
Players to watch: Leverkusen's next star
Bayer Leverkusen’s new signing, 19-year-old Christian Michel Kofane, attracted some attention before the international break by scoring in back-to-back games for the team. Since Patrik Schick got injured, the youngster found a place among the starters and took advantage of the opportunity. Hjulmand has not confirmed whether Schick will return to action and we expect Kofane to get 70-80 minutes on the pitch again. With Mainz’s defence in disarray, we can imagine him scoring once again.
Probable line-ups
Mainz: Riess, Kohr, Hanche-Olsen, Costa, Mwene, Amiri, Sano, Nordin, Lee, Nebel, Hollerbach
Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken, Quansah, Bade, Tapsoba, Vazquez, Fernandez, Garcia, Grimaldo, Tillman, Poku, Kofane
Anything else catch the eye?
Bayer Leverkusen have much to prove and improve as a whole, but a match against Mainz may be the perfect opportunity. The 05ers failed to score in four of their six Bundesliga games this season, which is why we wouldn’t risk our money on the usual goal markets. We expect Leverkusen to beat Mainz but we can’t guarantee it will not be a narrow 1-0, for example.
Alternatively, we plan to play one of the markets related to bookings. Leverkusen and Mainz are among the most booked teams this season, and in particular, they received five red cards in six rounds total. The two H2Hs last season featured six and nine cards too. You can either opt for Over 4.5 cards or Both teams to get booked 2+ times, both available at 4/5.
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