Lokomotiv Moscow vs JuventusUEFA Champions League, KO: 17:55 Nov 6, 2019, Stadion Lokomotiv
JUVENTUS can qualify for the last 16 with a win over Lokomotiv in Moscow but it will be far from simple after the Russians came within a whisker of a shock Turin triumph.
Aleksei Miranchuk fired the Moscow side into a first-half lead and they held firm until Paulo Dybala pounced twice in the last 13 minutes to break their hearts.
I tipped Cristiano Ronaldo to explode into life in this season's Champions League by netting two goals or more in that match but instead it was Dybala who rode to the rescue.
That maintained the Turin giants' perfect record in the head-to-head with Lokomotiv, making it three wins out of three, and Juventus appeal at 13/20 with Marathonbet to claim another victory in Moscow.
Lokomotiv's home record in Europe has been pretty poor in recent years, winning only five of their last 14 fixtures. Seven of those games have ended in defeat and both Porto and Schalke beat them in Russia in last season's group stage.
In their first home game of this season's groups, Atletico Madrid eased to a 2-0 win while Spartak Moscow also romped to a 3-0 win at the Stadion Lokomotiv in the Russian league just a fortnight ago.
That suggests a Juventus win to nil is the value bet at 7/4 with 888Sport, with Maurizio Sarri's side warming up for their trip to eastern Europe by shutting out Torino in a 1-0 derby win away from home.
That was Juve's first clean sheet in five games but they have five shuts-out for the season in total and will know what to expect from their opponents after facing them in Italy.
Lokomotiv are also without a win in their last three games, with a 1-1 weekend draw at Ufa hardly boosting confidence ahead of the arrival of the Serie A champions.
I can still see this game being quite tight but there's not much value in the market, with under 2.5 strikes a best 22/23 with SportPesa. There's slightly better odds if you back both teams not to score, which is evens with BetVictor.
Despite letting me down on his last Euro outing, I'm going to stick with Ronaldo in the goalscorer markets. He's evens for anytime scorer with SportNation and I'll be sticking a few quid on that.
The odds on Ronaldo scoring two or more have been boosted to 5/1 with William Hill but he hasn't scored more than one goal in a single game for Juve all season. For a longer-odds option, I'm more inclined to back him to net from a header, which is 6/1 at 888Sport.
I backed Lokomotiv's Dmitri Barinov to pick up a card in their group opener at Leverkusen and it came up at 5/2. He was also carded in Turin and boasts eight yellows for the season so the midfielder could be due another here. Barinov is 5/2 once more with Unibet.
I don't normally dabble in the corner market as it can be a bit arbitrary but it could offer some value here. There were 11 corners when these sides faced off in Turin and 14 when Atletico Madrid won 2-0 in Russia. That suggests over 11.5 corners might be worth a punt at 7/5 with Unibet.
This UEFA Champions League match between Lokomotiv Moscow and Juventus will be played on Nov 6, 2019 and kick off at 17:55