Liverpool host Aston Villa at Anfield on Saturday night in the Premier League, with both sides arriving in contrasting moods. The champions are looking to end a poor run of league form, while Villa come in lifted by a huge win over Manchester City.
Arne Slot’s side started the season with five straight league victories but have since lost six of their last seven in all competitions. Defensively, they have struggled badly, conceding 1.23 xG across the season and only four sides have conceded more shots in the box than the Reds.
Liverpool’s attack remains reliable, however. They have scored an average of 1.78 goals this season and even during this downturn, their xG totals suggest they are still creating enough to win matches. Slot believes performances at Anfield will soon start to turn results.
Villa arrive with confidence following their 1-0 win over Manchester City last weekend, restricting the champions to just 1.1 xG while creating 1.15 themselves. That was their best attacking display since the opening weeks of the season, when they produced 1.73 xG against Fulham.
Across nine league matches, Villa have averaged only 0.88 xG per game, underlining how their progress under Unai Emery has come more through control and efficiency than sustained attacking output. Still, they have lost only two of their last ten in all competitions and continue to look well-organised and disciplined.
History offers little encouragement for the visitors. Villa have won just one of their last 15 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D3-L11) and only once in 30 away games against reigning champions. Liverpool, meanwhile, have won six of their last seven home league games against Villa, making Anfield a tough place to end that trend.
How the bookies view it: Hosts are strong favourites
Liverpool are priced at 8/13 to win, which implies a 61.9% probability. The draw is 360/100 (around 21.7%), while Aston Villa are 9/2, giving them just a 18.2% chance of victory.
The market clearly favours a home win, but the real value could lie in the goals markets. Over 2.5 goals is available at 4/7, implying a 63.6% chance, while Both Teams to Score is 8/13, translating to a 61.9% probability.
Given Liverpool’s record of scoring in each of their last 43 Premier League games but conceding in seven of nine this season, those prices reflect the strong likelihood of another open contest at Anfield.
Head to Head: Liverpool strong against Villa
Liverpool’s recent record against Aston Villa is heavily one-sided. Across their last 20 meetings in all competitions, Liverpool have won 12, drawn four and lost only four, scoring 43 goals and conceding 30. Their dominance has been even clearer at Anfield, where they have six wins and a draw from the last seven league encounters, netting 17 and conceding just three.
The only notable blemish on that record came in the famous 7-2 defeat at Villa Park in 2020, a result that remains Villa’s only Premier League win over Liverpool in the last 15 attempts. Since then, Liverpool have outscored Villa 22-10 across those fixtures, and they have often looked comfortable in games between the two sides.
Even when Villa have managed to earn results, it has usually come through chaotic, open games rather than control such as the 3-3 draw at Villa Park in May or the 2-2 in February. Those contests underline a recurring theme: Villa can create chances against Liverpool, but they also leave space that the Reds consistently exploit.
Historically, matches between these teams produce goals, with 14 of the last 20 finishing over 2.5 goals and 12 seeing both teams score. That trend reflects the attacking mindset of both sides and the vulnerability that tends to come when they meet.
Players to watch: Salah and Gakpo the threat from the wings
This looks one of the best player-based angles for the weekend, built on consistency and strong attacking patterns at Anfield. Mohamed Salah remains Liverpool’s most reliable threat in front of goal. He has registered at least one shot on target in 13 of his last 15 Premier League home matches, with the only exceptions coming against Arsenal twice and West Ham at the back end of last season.
This season he has produced seven shots on target from 19 attempts and remains central to Liverpool’s attacking output, averaging just over two shots per game and 0.8 on target. He has four shots on target from his four Premier League outings at Anfield this season, hitting one or more in three.
Cody Gakpo has quietly built a strong record of his own, landing a shot on target in nine of his last 11 Premier League starts at Anfield. His positioning under Arne Slot has helped his numbers, often playing either off the left or in a supporting striker role where he regularly finds space between the lines.
With Salah drawing defensive attention and Gakpo operating on the blind side of full-backs, both are consistently in areas to test the goalkeeper. He also has four shots on target from his four home Premier League games, failing to register at least one in the game against Everton where he only played 60 minutes.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Mamardashvili, Bradley, Konate, van Dijk, Robertson, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Ekitike
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne, Kamara, Onana, McGinn, Rogers, Sancho, Watkins
Anything else catch the eye?
Both Liverpool and Aston Villa come into this fixture with attacking quality but defensive issues that make Over 2.5 Goals & both teams to score a strong betting angle.
Liverpool have conceded in seven of their nine Premier League games this season and continue to look vulnerable at the back. Stretching across this season and last, they have allowed two or more goals in nine of their last 13 league matches.
The underlying data backs up those concerns as across their last four Premier League games, Liverpool have generated 2.36 xG but conceded 2.04. That reflects a team still creating plenty but too often leaving space in transition and failing to control games defensively. Slot’s side have also kept just three clean sheets in their last 17 league matches.
At the other end, Liverpool’s attack remains extremely reliable. They have scored in each of their last 43 Premier League games and continue to average over six shots on target per home match. With players capable of creating from wide and midfield areas, they regularly turn dominance into chances, even when not at their best.
Aston Villa have scored in seven of their nine league games this season and arrive in better rhythm after a 1-0 win over Manchester City. Despite modest xG numbers, averaging 0.88 per game they convert efficiently and pose a constant threat from wide areas and set plays. Defensively, their away record remains shaky, with at least two goals conceded in three of five trips.
Liverpool’s home matches consistently deliver goals, and Villa’s blend of sharp finishing and open defending should ensure that trend continues. Over 2.5 Goals & both teams to score looks well supported by both recent data and form.
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