Poland travel to Lithuania for a crucial Group G qualifier with qualification finely poised. Both Poland and Finland sit on 10 points, trailing the Netherlands by three, and with both sides still to play the group leaders and bottom-placed Malta, this fixture could prove decisive in the push for second place.
Poland’s form under Jan Urban has improved noticeably. They are unbeaten in four matches in all competitions, including a 3-1 win over Finland and a 1-1 draw away to the Netherlands in September. Urban’s side have looked balanced and cohesive, averaging 1.74 xPTS per game, second only to the Dutch, and generating 1.8 xG per 90 minutes.
The return of Piotr Zielinski from a minor knock is a boost, while Robert Lewandowski and Karol Swiderski continue to lead the line with two goals apiece. Defensively, Lukasz Skorupski has kept three clean sheets in five qualifiers, supported by a back three that has looked settled since the summer.
Lithuania, by contrast, remain without a win in qualifying (D3 L4) and sit fourth in the group with three points. They have shown flashes of competitiveness, notably drawing 1-1 with Malta and scoring twice in a 3-2 defeat to the Netherlands, but their underlying numbers remain weak with just 0.83 xG per game and 1.63 xGA.
Gvidas Gineitis has scored half of their six goals, while captain Justas Lasickas has led a side short on attacking quality.
The hosts will likely defend deep and look for moments in transition, while Poland are expected to dominate the ball and create through width and set pieces. For Urban’s men, it’s a must-win night that could define their route to 2026.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Bookmakers make Poland clear favourites for their trip to Kaunas, pricing them at 4/9 to take all three points. Lithuania are seen as big outsiders at 15/2, while the draw trades around 7/2. Those prices reflect the gap between the sides in both performance and underlying metrics.
In the goal markets, over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10, suggesting around a 47% chance of a high-scoring contest. That aligns with Poland’s attacking data under Jan Urban, as they have averaged close to two xG per match and scored three times against Finland last month.
Both teams to score is available at 7/5, implying a 42% probability. Lithuania have scored in five of their seven qualifiers but tend to struggle against higher-ranked sides, while Poland have kept three clean sheets.
The markets back a controlled away win, with bettors weighing whether Poland’s attack can turn dominance into goals.
Recent head-to-head: Poland hold the upper hand
The head-to-head record between Lithuania and Poland clearly favours the visitors. Across five previous meetings, Poland have recorded three wins, one draw, and one defeat, scoring seven goals and conceding three. That works out to an average goal difference of –0.8 in Lithuania’s favour per match, highlighting how the contests have generally tilted toward Poland over the years.
Their most recent meeting came earlier in this qualifying campaign in March 2025, when Poland won 1-0 in Warsaw thanks to a first-half strike. The hosts dominated throughout, creating 1.25 xG compared to Lithuania’s 0.14, and limiting the visitors to a single attempt on target.
Before that, Poland beat Lithuania 4-0 in a friendly in 2018, while the 2016 meeting ended goalless. The only Lithuanian victory came in 2011, a 2-0 friendly in Kaunas, which remains their sole success in this fixture.
In competitive matches, Poland have never lost to Lithuania, scoring five times without reply across two qualifiers. With the current gulf in squad quality, data trends, and form, the historical pattern suggests another Polish win is the most probable outcome on Thursday night.
Players to watch: Cash in on goals
Matty Cash is a lively anytime goalscorer option for Poland’s trip to Lithuania. The Aston Villa full-back has found his scoring touch at international level, netting three goals in his last four appearances, including strikes against the Netherlands, Finland, and Moldova. Under Jan Urban, he operates more like an attacking wing-back, often pushing into the box when Poland build down the right.
Cash averages 3.3 shots per 90 minutes in this qualifying campaign and has hit the target in each of his last three outings. His timing of runs beyond the midfield line makes him difficult to track, and his finishing from close range has been sharp.
Lithuania have conceded 12 goals in seven qualifiers and regularly allow space in wide areas, which suits Cash’s style. With Poland expected to dominate possession and territory, his attacking involvement makes him a realistic anytime scorer at appealing odds.
Predicted line-ups
Lithuania (5-4-1): Gertmonas; Sirvys, Upstas, Girdvainis, Armalas, Lasickas; Sirgedas, Vorobjovas, Gineitis, Cernych; Paulauskas.
Poland (4-4-2): Skorupski; Cash, Wisniewski, Bednarek, Kiwior; Szymanski, Zielinski, Slisz, Kaminski; Swiderski, Lewandowski.
Anything else catch the eye?
Poland have found rhythm at the right time, and the underlying numbers strongly support them to win in Lithuania with at least two goals scored.
Their last four competitive matches have produced 2.05 xG per game, 15.3 shots, and 5.8 shots on target, while conceding only 0.96 xGA on average. The 3-1 victory over Finland showcased that balance as Poland generated six big chances and forced eight saves from Lukas Hradecky, evidence of the pressure they sustain.
Away from home, Jan Urban’s side are more assertive than results suggest. Their 1-1 draw in Rotterdam was one of their most complete performances of the campaign, matching the Netherlands for total shots and finishing ahead on xG (1.21 to 1.07). Poland’s xPTS average sits at 1.74 per match, comfortably above Lithuania’s 0.73, highlighting the gap in consistency and efficiency.
Lithuania’s defence has struggled to cope with sustained pressure. They have conceded nine goals in their last five qualifiers, faced 27 shots on target, and allowed opponents to create 1.8 xG per game. Their last clean sheet in a competitive fixture came in June, and they have since conceded inside the first half in four of five outings.
Poland’s attacking weapons make that trend hard to reverse. Robert Lewandowski remains the focal point, but Przemysław Frankowski and Jakub Piotrowski have added pace and penetration from midfield.
Against a deep Lithuanian block, Poland’s set-piece threat which has already yielding two goals in qualifying and this could again prove decisive.
With Poland level on points with Finland and a trip to the Netherlands still to come, victory here is essential. Their superior shot profile, creative output, and need to push for margin make Poland to win and over 1.5 goals a well-supported selection.
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