Leganes head into the final day with everything to play for. They must win at home to keep their survival hopes alive, and the fixture list has handed them a golden opportunity: a meeting with already-relegated Real Valladolid, who are finishing the season in abysmal form.
Valladolid have picked up just on point from their last 18 matches, a run that includes 17 defeats and an average of 2.78 goals conceded per game. They have failed to score in their last two, and their overall lack of fight and form suggests they have already mentally checked out.
Leganes, meanwhile, have proven difficult to beat lately, losing just two of their last eight — and one of those defeats came against Barcelona. They have found ways to stay in games, even when performances have been mixed, and now face a team offering minimal resistance.
Though their home form has been patchy, they have generally taken care of business against struggling sides. The crowd will be fully behind them, and with the stakes so high, effort and urgency should not be lacking. This is a clear opportunity for Leganes to take three points against the league’s worst travellers. Anything less would be a huge failure — and very possibly, the end of their top-flight status.
How the bookies view it: Home win
Bookmakers heavily favour Leganes to win their final-day clash with already-relegated Real Valladolid. The hosts are priced at 1/3, with the draw at 19/4 and a Valladolid win a long shot at 10/1 — highlighting the expected outcome.
In the goals market, over 2.5 goals is priced at 7/10, implying a 58.82% chance of at least three goals. That aligns with the stats: 15 of Valladolid’s 18 away games have gone over 2.5, and they have conceded 2+ in 16 of them.
Both teams to score is 23/20, or a 46.5% implied chance. With Valladolid failing to score in six away matches and Leganes keeping five home clean sheets, the market leans toward one-sided scoring in what should be a high-pressure encounter.
Head to head: Visitors unbeaten in seven
In the last 15 meetings between Leganes and Valladolid, Leganes have won six times, Valladolid have won four, and there have been five draws. However, recent history has favoured Valladolid slightly in terms of resilience – Leganes have not beaten them since 2019, a run stretching seven games. The last three encounters have all ended level, with the most recent two finishing 0-0.
Players to watch: Munir to hit the target
Munir El Haddadi has struggled for consistent starts this season but appears to be back in favour at Leganes, featuring more prominently in recent weeks. Across the campaign, he has made 8 starts and 24 total appearances, recording 21 shots with nine on target a shooting accuracy of 42.9%. He has scored four goals, giving him a conversion rate of 19%, or roughly one goal every 5.25 shots.
In matches where he has started and played more than 19 minutes, Munir has produced eight shots, four of which have been on target. That level of efficiency holds up when given extended minutes. Most notably, over his last four appearances — three of them starts — Munir has registered 10 shots, with four on target. This suggests growing confidence and a more prominent attacking role.
Predicted line-ups
Leganes face several injury concerns ahead of their must-win clash with Valladolid. Enric Franquesa and Bartol Franjic Barisic are both out with long-term cruciate ligament injuries, while Valentin Rosier (muscle), Yvan Neyou (back), Munir El Haddadi, and Miguel de la Fuente (both muscle) are all doubtful.
Valladolid are also weakened. Javi Sanchez (thigh), Ivan Torres (hernia), Joseph Aidoo, and Karl Hein (muscle injuries) are ruled out. Ivan Juric is a doubt, and Chuki is out for the season due to a hamstring problem.
Leganes (4-2-3-1): Dmitrovic; Rosier, Gonzalez, Hernandez, Franquesa; Tapia, Cisse; Raba, Cruz, Munir; Miguel
Valladolid (4-3-3): Ferreira; Perez, Sanchez, Aidoo, Henrique; Grillitsch, Martin, Sanchez; Machis, Sylla, Moro
Anything else catch the eye?
If Leganes are to avoid relegation, they will need goals and several indicators suggest they can score more than once against Real Valladolid. While Leganes have been inconsistent, they tend to deliver against weaker opposition. At home, they have scored in 12 of 13 matches against teams ranked 13th or lower. Players like Munir El Haddadi and Juan Cruz have stepped up in games they are expected to win.
Valladolid’s defence is the biggest reason to expect goals. They have conceded two or more in all away matches against bottom-half teams and in 16 of their 18 away games overall. They have also failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road. Their xGA of 2.42 per away game is the worst in La Liga, and recent performances suggest no improvement. With Leganes in a must-win scenario and Valladolid offering little resistance, the hosts should create enough chances to score at least twice — if not more.
GambleAware