Kairat Almaty host KuPS at Central Stadium on Tuesday evening for the second leg of their Champions League second qualifying round. The first leg was played in Finland, where KuPS took control of the tie with a 2–0 home win. Now Kairat return to Almaty needing at least two goals to force extra time in front of what should be a big home crowd.
KuPS have impressed both domestically and in Europe this season. They sit near the top of the Veikkausliiga with an excellent home record that carried them to the first-leg victory. At home in the league, they average over two goals per game and have conceded less than one per match, while also performing well on xPTS metrics.
In Finland, Kairat saw more of the ball and took more shots overall, but they failed to convert and were caught out by KuPS’ efficiency and defensive discipline. KuPS took their chances well and kept a clean sheet, leaving Kairat with plenty to do in the return match.
With the tie shifting to Almaty, Kairat’s strong home form will give them hope. They average over two goals per home game in the league and have conceded just four goals in seven home fixtures. Needing to attack, they will likely leave space for KuPS to counter, setting up an intriguing second leg where both sides will feel they have a path to progress.
How the bookies view it: Hosts clear favourites
Kairat Almaty are 13/20 to win, which implies about 61.5% chance. The draw at 3/1 implies around 25%, and KuPS at 4/1 implies roughly 20%. Both teams to score at 4/5 carries an implied probability of about 55.6%, while over 2.5 goals at 3/4 suggests an implied chance of approximately 57.1%.
Head to Head: Only second meeting
KuPS and Kairat Almaty have met once before, in the first leg of this tie in Finland, where KuPS won 2–0.
Players to watch: Jorginho to fire Almaty into next round
Jorginho looks like a strong bet to take multiple shots and has a good chance of finding the net. He has played 17 games this season, starting 14 of them and logging 1,354 minutes, which shows he is trusted to play significant minutes. In that time he has scored 6 goals, so he contributes regularly.
What really stands out is how active he is in front of goal. He averages 3.4 shots per game and 1.1 shots on target, showing he is always looking for opportunities. Over the season he has already taken 58 shots, with 18 on target, which means he is testing the goalkeeper in about one out of every three attempts.
His willingness to shoot combined with Kairat’s need to chase the game at home makes him even more likely to keep firing. He gets into good positions and does not hesitate to take responsibility in the final third, which is exactly what you want in a player when backing shots or a goal. With his high shot volume and steady goal return, Jorginho offers real value as a bet for shots and potentially to score.
Predicted line-ups
Kairat Almaty (4-3-3): Zarutskiy, Mata, Kasabulat, Costa, Martynovich, Glazer, Tapalov, Mrynskiy, Edimilson, Gromyko, Sorokin
KuPS (4-3-3): Kreidl, Savolainen, Pennanen, Arifi, Oksanen, Cisse, Miettinen, Toure, Luyeye-Lutumba, Hamalainen, Ruoppi
Anything else catch the eye?
Kairat to win and over 1.5 goals in the match is a strong bet given the numbers behind both teams’ recent performances. At home, Kairat have scored at least two goals in 71% of their league games, averaging 17 shots per match with nearly six on target. They create an average of 2.1 big chances per home game and have converted over 30% of these into goals, showing good efficiency in front of goal.
The visitors have conceded in nine of their last 10 away matches across all competitions, including at least two goals in more than half of them. They also allow over 14 shots and nearly five shots on target per game away from home, suggesting they struggle to contain pressure.
In the first leg, Kairat’s finishing was clinical. Even with fewer total shots, they registered a higher percentage of shots on target and made their chances count. Their xPTS at home in domestic matches has consistently exceeded 2.2 per game, reflecting their dominance.
Kairat’s defensive strength also supports this bet: they keep clean sheets in about 35% of home games while still encouraging attacking play. With their opponent forced to push forward chasing goals, spaces are likely to open up, allowing Kairat to exploit them. Given the combination of their attacking efficiency and the visitors’ defensive record, Kairat to win and over 1.5 goals looks well-supported.
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