Italy host Israel on Tuesday night in Udine as Group I of World Cup qualifying reaches a crucial stage. The Azzurri sit six points behind leaders Norway but hold a game in hand and will face the Norwegians in the final round, meaning this fixture is essential if Gennaro Gattuso’s side are to stay in the hunt for top spot.
Italy come into the match in good form after four straight wins, beating Moldova, Estonia twice, and Israel in a 5-4 thriller in Tel Aviv. That wild contest exposed defensive flaws but also underlined their attacking variety and control in possession.
Gattuso has gradually found a shape that works, alternating between 4-4-2 and 3-4-3 to get more from his forwards. Recent performances show growing control in midfield and a clear edge in quality. Italy rank second in Group I for xPTS and have produced an xG average of 1.94 per game while limiting opponents to 0.91.
Moise Kean and Giacomo Raspadori have combined for seven goals, while Gianlugi Donnarumma remains ever-present at the back. The atmosphere around the camp has improved, and confidence is building after a convincing 3-1 win away to Estonia.
Israel arrive in Rome under pressure. They have lost consecutive games against Italy and Norway by an aggregate score of 10-4, and their defensive numbers are alarming. Away from home they have conceded 14 goals across three qualifiers and sit with one of the lowest xPTS totals in the group. Dor Peretz leads their scoring chart, but the team’s shape and discipline have been inconsistent.
With Norway still to play, this is a must-win night for Italy. Another strong attacking performance could keep qualification hopes alive and make the final-day meeting with Norway decisive.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Italy are heavy favourites at 1/5, implying an 83.3% chance of victory, as they look to continue their push for World Cup qualification. The draw at 13/2 carries a 13.3% chance, while Israel’s 14/1 price gives them just a 6.7% implied probability of an upset.
Gattuso’s side have won four straight qualifiers and scored seven goals without reply at home, averaging nearly 2.0 xG per game. Israel’s defensive issues explain the gap as they have conceded 10 goals in their last two matches and 14 in three meetings with Italy and Norway.
Over 2.5 goals is 2/5 (a 71.4% chance), while both teams to score is 1/1 (a 50% chance). Given Italy’s attacking consistency and Israel’s frailty on the road, the market clearly expects another dominant Italian performance with goals likely at both ends.
Recent head-to-head: Italy dominate
Italy and Israel meet once again in Rome, with history firmly in the Azzurri’s favour. The two nations have faced each other five times in competitive fixtures, and Italy have won all five, scoring 15 goals and conceding seven. That record reflects a consistent pattern with Italy’s technical control and attacking quality have regularly proved too strong, even when Israel have competed well for periods.
Their most recent clash in September was one of the most chaotic in recent memory, ending 5-4 to Italy in Tel Aviv. It was an end-to-end contest that produced 13 shots on target and 4.8 xG combined.
Italy’s movement in wide areas caused constant problems, while Israel’s direct play and quick counters through Oscar Gloukh and Manor Solomon kept the game open. Despite Israel’s attacking threat, their defensive structure collapsed in key moments, something that has become a recurring issue in this rivalry.
Before that, Italy won both Nations League meetings in 2024 with a 2-1 away and 4-1 at home, as well as two World Cup qualifiers in 2016 and 2017. Across those games, Italy averaged 4.4 goals per match, while Israel’s average return sits at 1.4, underlining the gulf in consistency and quality.
The numbers show how dominant Italy have been: five wins from five, +1.60 goal difference per game, and an average of three goals scored per fixture. Israel have never kept a clean sheet against Italy and have conceded at least twice in every meeting.
With Gattuso’s side improving in form and Israel conceding 10 goals in their last two qualifiers, the head-to-head trend looks unlikely to change. Everything points to another high-scoring night favouring the hosts.
Players to watch: Retegui to score
Mateo Retegui looks a strong anytime scorer bet when Italy host Israel. He is in excellent form, scoring six goals in his last seven starts for club and country while adding four assists.
In World Cup qualifying, he has produced three goals and four assists in five matches, averaging more than four shots per 90 minutes and hitting the target 11 times from 31 attempts.
Retegui thrives as Italy’s focal point, consistently finding space between centre-backs and converting high-quality chances. He scored twice in the 5-0 win over Estonia and added another in the recent 3-1 victory in Tallinn.
His movement and aerial threat fit perfectly against an Israel defence that has conceded 10 goals in its last two games and 14 across three meetings with Italy and Norway.
With Italy expected to dominate possession and create multiple chances, Retegui’s current rhythm makes him an appealing anytime scorer selection.
Predicted line-ups
Italy (4-4-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Calafiori, Dimarco; Cambiaso, Barella, Tonali, Spinazzola; Raspadori, Retegui.
Israel (4-2-3-1): Peretz; Dasa, Baltaxa, Nachmias, Revivo; Abu Fani, Peretz; Khalaily, Gloukh, Solomon; Baribo.
Anything else catch the eye?
Italy look well placed to record another heavy win when they host Israel, and the numbers strongly support backing the Azzurri to score over 2.5 goals.
Gattuso’s team have found rhythm in attack. Across their last four qualifiers they have scored 15 times, averaging 11.2 shots and 5.4 shots on target per game. Their chance creation has improved too, generating 13 big chances in that run while averaging 2.05 xG per match.
At home, Italy have scored seven goals without reply in two qualifiers, producing a combined 4.1 xG and recording an xPTS figure above 5.0 from those matches. They have dominated territory, enjoying over 65% possession in both games and recording a positive shots-in-box ratio of +16.
Israel’s defence looks ill-equipped to cope. They have conceded ten goals in their last two qualifiers and 14 overall in three meetings with Italy and Norway. Away from home, they have allowed 5.6 shots on target per game and an average xGA of 2.43 which is the worst in the group. Their opponents have created 11 big chances in those three away fixtures alone.
Tactically, Israel’s back line has struggled against quick ball movement and width, something Italy now use effectively through their wing-backs and wide forwards. Kean and Raspadori have both scored multiple times in qualifying, and the supporting midfield runners have added a new layer to the attack.
With Italy chasing Norway at the top and needing goal difference to stay alive in the group, they are unlikely to sit on a lead. The combination of form, shot volume, and Israel’s porous defensive record makes Italy over 2.5 team goals a clear value angle.
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