Atalanta’s Gewiss Stadium will come alive when Italy host Estonia in Group I of the UEFA 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The Italians begin a new era under manager Gennaro Gattuso and face an Estonia side that has been struggling lately.
The qualifiers have not started well for Italy, who have picked up one win from their opening two matches. They bounced back from a 3-0 defeat to Norway in their opening fixture to claim a 2-0 win over Moldova last time out.
Having replaced Luciano Spalletti at the helm, the task for Gattuso will be to build on the win over Moldova. That result maintains a decent home record for the Italians, who are unbeaten in six of their last seven matches in front of their fans.
Considered one of the minnows in the group, Estonia’s qualifying campaign has not been surprising as they have lost three of their four matches in Group I. Jurgen Henn’s men were beaten 1-0 at home by Norway in their previous fixture.
One positive for Estonia is that their only win in the qualifiers has come on their travels, a 3-2 victory over Moldova. However, that was a rare result for the Estonians, who have lost seven of their last 10 away matches across all competitions.
How the bookies view it: Italy overwhelming favourites
Italy have been installed as overwhelming favourites among the bookies and are priced at 1/14 by BoyleSports to claim the win. An unlikely victory for Estonia is valued at 25/1, while a draw is set at odds of 10/1.
Head to head: Italy in control
Italy often dominate this fixture and have won all four previous matches against Estonia. The most recent meeting was a friendly back in 2020, which ended 4-0 in favour of the Italians.
Players to watch: Raspadori to star
Giacomo Raspadori has caught the eye for Italy lately, having found the net in the last two international matches. The forward could be backed to score anytime on Friday (Giacomo Raspadori anytime goalscorer – available at 4/5 with BoyleSports).
Rauno Sappinen was on target in Estonia’s only win in the group and could be worth keeping an eye on. The forward will be keen to get on the score sheet on Friday (Rauno Sappinen anytime goalscorer – offered at odds of 6/1).
Probable line-ups:
Fresh off his summer move to Manchester City, Gianluigi Donnarumma could start in goal for Italy, with Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori and Giovanni Di Lorenzo in defence. Tonali should get the nod in midfield alongside Nicolo Barella and Manuel Locatelli, while Raspadori and Mateo Retegui should lead the line.
Estonia, meanwhile, could go with Karl Jakob Hein in goal, with Maksim Paskotsi and Marten Kuusk featuring at the back. Kevor Palumets, Kait and Vlasi Sinjavski should all line up in midfield, with Rauno Sappinen expected to start in attack.
Italy: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori, Tonali, Barella, Locatelli, Politano, Raspadori, Retegui
Estonia: Hein, Schjonning-Larsen, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Saliste, Palumets, Shein, Kait, Sinjavski, Kristal, Sappinen
Anything else catch the eye?
Italy won both halves the last time they faced Estonia (Italy to win both halves – priced at 7/10 with BoyleSports). The first half has produced over 1.5 goals in three of the hosts’ last five matches (First half over 1.5 goals – set at odds of 5/6).
The Italians won by four clear goals in the last meeting with Estonia (Italy -2 handicap – valued at 4/6).
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