Ipswich Town host Derby County at Portman Road on Saturday afternoon in the Championship, with both sides looking to kick-start their campaigns after sluggish starts. The Tractor Boys arrive with two points from three matches, drawing against Birmingham and Southampton before a frustrating 1-0 defeat away to Preston.
The underlying numbers back up the impression of a side still trying to find fluency. Their xPTS stand at 3.89, putting them mid-table, but their non-penalty xG of 0.75 per game ranks in the bottom six for attacking output. Defensively, however, they are among the best, allowing just 0.68 npxGA per match. That compact base has kept games tight, with all three of their matches finishing under 2.5 goals.
The bigger story around Ipswich is transition. Boss Kieran McKenna has admitted he is “virtually putting a new side together” after the summer departures of key figures Sam Morsy, Massimo Luongo, Cameron Burgess, Axel Tuanzebe, Omari Hutchinson, Nathan Broadhead and Liam Delap. In their place, the Blues have brought in Kasey McAteer, Chuba Akpom, Azor Matusiwa, Ashley Young, Cedric Kipre and David Button, while Jens Cajuste has returned on loan from Napoli. The pace of change has inevitably disrupted attacking chemistry, something McKenna has highlighted.
Derby’s position looks more concerning. They sit 23rd with just a single point and the data suggests it is deserved. Their xPTS of 2.04 ranks last in the division, driven by the lowest non-penalty xG in the league at 0.41 and one of the weakest defences at 1.45 npxGA. They are conceding 6.7 shots on target per game, more than any other team, and creating next to nothing going forward.
It all sets up a clash between one of the Championship’s most solid defences and its bluntest attack.
How the bookies view it: Ipswich strong favourites
Ipswich are priced at 7/12 to win, which implies a 63% chance, and that looks fair given their strong defensive record and Derby’s struggles in attack. Derby are out at 27/5, suggesting a 16% chance, but the data points closer to nearer 10%, with their xG output the lowest in the league.
On goals, the market makes over 2.5 at 11/10 (47% implied) and both teams to score at 6/5 (45% implied), but that feels too generous given Ipswich have seen three straight unders and Derby average just 0.41 npxG per game.
Head to Head: Tractor Boys strong in recent fixtures
The last five meetings between Ipswich and Derby have been closely contested but with a recent shift in momentum. Ipswich won both clashes in League One during the 2022/23 season, winning 2-0 at Pride Park and 1-0 at Portman Road, results that underline their ability to edge tight encounters. Before that, the points were shared in a 1-1 draw at Portman Road in February 2019, while Derby had taken back-to-back wins in 2018 and 2017. Looking specifically at games in Suffolk, the record is mixed.
Derby won three straight visits between 2015 and 2017, all by narrow margins, but Ipswich responded with the 1-1 draw in 2019 before the 1-0 victory in 2022. The pattern across these matches is clear: fixtures are often decided by a single goal, with both sides having enjoyed spells of dominance, but Ipswich’s recent results at Portman Road suggest the balance has tilted in their favour.
Players to watch: O’Shea threat from set pieces
Dara O’Shea looks a strong candidate for at least one shot in Ipswich’s clash with Derby, largely because of how the matchups align. O’Shea is not prolific, but his role at set pieces gives him regular opportunities to get efforts away. Last season in the Premier League he attempted 22 shots in 35 appearances, averaging over half a shot per game, with almost all of them coming from corners and free kicks.
Already this season he has registered two attempts in three Championship matches. That level of output is important when set against Derby’s weakness. Only Blackburn have conceded more xG from set pieces so far, highlighting how vulnerable they are to deliveries into the box. Ipswich themselves are struggling to create clear chances in open play, which makes their threat from dead-ball situations even more important. With Leif Davis supplying from the left, O’Shea has an excellent chance of landing one shot. We can back O’Shea at 5/6 for a shot, but we can boost to 11/10 by adding Ipswich to avoid defeat, and that looks a smart bet.
Predicted line-ups
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Palmer, Johnson, O’Shea, Greaves, Davis, Matusiwa, Taylor, Clarke, Szmodics, Philogene, Hirst
Derby County (3-4-3): Widell Zetterstrom, Batth, Sanderson, Clarke, Nyambe, Thompson, Adams, Elder, Weimann, Ozoh, Morris
Anything else catch the eye?
The combination of Ipswich to win and under 4.5 goals looks a strong angle in this fixture given how both sides have profiled in the opening weeks of the season.
Ipswich have been winless so far, but their underlying data is far stronger than results suggest. They have conceded just two big chances across three matches and are allowing only around five shots in the box per game. On average they face two shots on target per match, one of the lowest totals in the league. That makes them difficult to break down, and against a Derby side ranked bottom for attacking production, the chances of a home clean sheet look high.
Derby’s figures are bleak. They are averaging just 0.41 non-penalty xG per game and have managed only two goals in three matches. Their shot creation is weak, and crucially, they are being out-shot heavily in most contests. They sit bottom for expected points, and opponents are finding joy both in volume and quality against their defence. They have been giving up more than six shots on target per game, one of the worst returns in the Championship.
For Ipswich, the attack is not yet free-flowing, but Derby’s defensive numbers suggest chances will come. In their last outing against Preston, Ipswich managed 15 shots and 72% possession but lacked the finishing touch. Against Derby, whose structure is far softer, even a blunt Ipswich attack should find a breakthrough.
The “under 4.5 goals” element ties neatly into both clubs’ styles. Ipswich have played three matches and all have finished under 2.5 goals, while Derby’s lack of attacking threat means it is hard to see them contributing to a high-scoring game. Ipswich are far more likely to win this match, but their profile points to narrow margins rather than a rout.
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