The 2026 World Cup qualifiers continue on Monday night as Iceland host France at Laugardalsvollur in Reykjavik. The sides met in September when France won 2–1 in Paris, and the return fixture offers Iceland a chance to steady their campaign after back-to-back defeats.
Iceland sit third in Group D with one win and two losses, having beaten Azerbaijan 5–0 before losing 2–1 to France and 5–3 at home to Ukraine. They have scored nine goals and conceded seven, producing some of the group’s highest xG numbers but also one of the weakest xGA records.
Their home xPTS stands at 1.71 per game, which drops to just 0.65 away, reflecting how much they rely on home comfort. The 4-4-2 system used in recent matches has offered attacking intent but left them vulnerable in transitions, particularly down the flanks. Hakon Arnar Haraldsson continues to wear the armband, while Albert Gudmundsson leads their scoring with three goals.
France arrive top of the group with a perfect record, seven scored and only one conceded. They have taken the maximum nine points and lead Group D on both results and xPTS, averaging 2.42 xPTS per match. Didier Deschamps’ side are unbeaten in their last five competitive fixtures, including clean-sheet wins over Ukraine and Azerbaijan.
Kylian Mbappe has scored three goals in qualifying and captains a side that has allowed just four shots on target across the last three games. Aurelien Tchouameni returns from suspension, strengthening a midfield already performing well above 2.0 xG created per 90.
With France chasing early qualification and Iceland seeking to revive their campaign, this fixture should highlight the gap between a disciplined heavyweight and a developing underdog still searching for consistency.
How the bookies view it: Les Bleus strong favourites
Bookmakers see this as a one-sided qualifier, with France 2/9 favourites to win in Reykjavik. That price implies a 81.8% chance of victory for Didier Deschamps’ side.
Iceland are a huge 14/1 to win, which equates to an implied probability of just 6.7%. Even on home soil, the market gives them little chance of producing a shock.
The draw is priced at 6/1, an implied probability of 14.3%. That reflects the unlikelihood of France dropping points as they have drawn only once in their last ten competitive fixtures and rarely lose control of games against lower-ranked sides.
In the goal markets, over 2.5 goals at 4/9 implies a 69.2% chance of at least three goals. That aligns with both teams’ recent trends: France’s qualifiers average 2.7 goals, while Iceland’s average is 5.3 due to their 5–3 loss to Ukraine.
Both teams to score is 21/20, implying a 48.8% chance of both sides finding the net. Iceland scored in Paris and have nine goals in three games, but France’s defence has allowed only four shots on target across the entire campaign.
Recent head-to-head: France dominant
France and Iceland have met six times since 2012, with France dominant across the fixture. They have won five, drawn one, and lost none, scoring 17 goals and conceding just seven, an average winning margin of 1.67 goals per game.
The most recent meeting came in September 2025, a 2–1 win for France in Paris during World Cup qualifying. Iceland battled well and created chances on the break, but France’s attacking quality, led by Mbappe and Barcola proved decisive.
Their last competitive encounters before that came in Euro 2020 qualifying, when France won both games comfortably: 4–0 in Paris and 1–0 in Reykjavik. The Nations League and European Championship history between the two nations tells a similar story. Their most famous clash came in the Euro 2016 quarter-final, when France ran out 5–2 winners, ending Iceland’s memorable run.
The only draw in the series came in a 2018 friendly, a 2–2 result in Guingamp, but otherwise France have controlled every meeting through possession and attacking efficiency.
Across those six games, France have averaged 2.83 goals per match to Iceland’s 1.17, underlining their attacking dominance. The pattern is clear: Iceland can compete for periods, but France’s depth and pace in forward areas have consistently been the difference.
Players to watch: Mbappe to shot at every opportunity
Backing Kylian Mbappe to have 2+ shots on target, to score or assist, and 4+ total shots is well supported by both his recent output and France’s attacking structure in qualifying.
Across the three World Cup qualifiers so far, Mbappe has delivered elite consistency. He has produced 10 shots (three on target) vs Azerbaijan, five shots (three on target) vs Iceland, and four shots (two on target) vs Ukraine. That’s an average of 6.3 total shots and 2.7 on target per game, comfortably clearing both thresholds.
He has also returned three goals and two assists in those fixtures, meaning he has directly contributed to a goal in every qualifier so far.
From a metrics standpoint, Mbappe leads all players in Group D for non-penalty xG (0.83 per 90) and xAG (0.28), confirming that he is both finishing chances and creating them. He is also France’s penalty taker and first-choice on direct free-kicks, increasing his opportunities on target.
France’s attack funnels through him as they average 15.3 shots per game, with Mbappe accounting for roughly 40% of those. His 10.3 progressive carries and 2.8 successful take-ons per 90 underline his tendency to drive at defenders and test goalkeepers regularly.
Iceland’s defensive data only strengthens this bet. They have conceded 10.3 shots per game, 4.3 on target, and allowed 1.82 xGA on average in their last two qualifiers. Their back line struggles against pace and direct runners, exactly Mbappe’s strengths.
Given volume, role, and consistency, Mbappe 2+ shots on target, to score or assist, and 4+ total shots looks a realistic and statistically grounded selection and one that matches both his personal output and the game’s tactical pattern.
Predicted line-ups
Iceland (4-4-2): Olafsson, Palsson, Ingason, Gretarsson, Ellertsson, Thorsteinsson, Haraldsson, Johannesson, Gudmundsson, Gudjohnsen, Magnusson
France (4-4-2): Maignan, Gusto, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez, Olise, Rabiot, Thuram-Ulien, Coman, Mbappe, Ekitike
Anything else catch the eye?
France look well placed to continue their perfect start in Group D, and backing France to win, France over 1.5 goals, and under 4.5 goals combines strong underlying data with realistic game dynamics.
Deschamps’ side have produced the highest attacking and defensive metrics in the group. Across three qualifiers, they average 15.3 shots per game, 6.7 on target, and 3.1 big chances created.
Their non-penalty xG sits at 2.23 per 90, easily the best in the section, while their xGA of 0.48 is the lowest. That control explains why each of their three wins has stayed under 4.5 total goals as they dominate possession and tempo without chasing inflated score lines.
At the other end, Iceland’s open shape has been punished by top opposition. They have faced an average of 14.7 shots per game and conceded 3.2 big chances per match, with an xGA of 1.82 across the last two qualifiers. Their defensive numbers worsen against high-possession sides, conceding over 1.6 xG in both defeats to France and Ukraine.
France’s balance gives this market combination value. They have scored at least twice in six of their last eight competitive games and conceded only once in this qualifying cycle.
Mbappe, Barcola, and Thuram form a front line generating 0.8 xG per 90 between them, and with Tchouameni returning to anchor midfield, France should sustain pressure throughout.
A disciplined performance similar to their 2–0 win in Ukraine looks likely. Iceland will contribute energy and set-piece threat, but their defensive numbers suggest they will not contain France for 90 minutes.
The best statistical match is France win, France over 1.5 goals, and under 4.5 total goals which is a combination that has landed in every qualifier so far.
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