Iceland and Azerbaijan meet in Reykjavik this Friday in a Group D clash of World Cup 2026 qualifying. The game takes place at Laugardalsvollur, a venue that has traditionally given Iceland a clear edge, and it will test two nations coming into the campaign with contrasting outlooks.
Iceland are ranked 71st by FIFA and begin this campaign in a transitional phase. They struggled in the Euro 2024 cycle but have shown improvement in xPTS, underlining that performances have often been stronger than raw results. Their xG numbers at home have been solid, particularly against mid and lower-ranked European sides, where they consistently generate more than 1.5 xG.
The squad is younger than in past cycles, but key forwards Albert Gudmundsson and Andri Gudjohnsen carry the main responsibility in attack. There have been departures, with veterans like Gylfi Sigurdsson no longer around, yet new players from Scandinavian clubs have stepped in to keep competition healthy.
Azerbaijan, by contrast, come into the game with fragile form. They are ranked 116th and in their last 20 competitive matches have lost 14, conceding 42 goals. Their xPTS across the Euro 2024 qualifiers was among the lowest in UEFA, and their defensive xGA remains consistently high. While Emin Mahmudov offers a scoring outlet, there are gaps after experienced players moved out of the squad. Recent friendlies have seen more defeats than positives, and their away record is especially poor, with six losses in their last seven games outside Baku.
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Iceland are 8/15 favourites, which suggests a 65% chance of victory, while the draw is 33/10 at around 23%. Azerbaijan are the outsiders at 6/1, giving them just a 14% implied chance. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 10/11, equating to roughly 52%, and both teams to score is 103/100, just under a 50% chance.
Head to Head: Honours even
Iceland and Azerbaijan have met only once before, a friendly in Reykjavik back in August 2008 that ended 1-1. That remains their sole head-to-head meeting, meaning the upcoming clash in September 2025 will be the first time the two nations face each other in a competitive fixture.
Players to watch: Like Father, Like Son.
Daniel Gudjohnsen is one of the most exciting young talents coming through in Icelandic football, carrying a famous family name. He is the son of former Chelsea and Barcelona forward Eidur Gudjohnsen and the younger brother of Andri, already capped by the senior national team. Daniel is currently playing for Malmo in Sweden, where he has begun to make his mark in the Allsvenskan.
This season he has logged just 649 minutes but produced two goals and five assists, showing a strong ability to influence games even when not starting regularly. His record of 18 shots, with six on target, highlights that he consistently gets into dangerous positions. At just 19, he has shown composure beyond his years, often delivering key contributions in tight matches.
For bettors, Daniel Gudjohnsen appeals as an anytime scorer because Iceland are expected to see plenty of attacking play against Azerbaijan, a side with one of the weakest defensive records in Europe. His movement off the ball, link-up play, and sharp instincts inside the box mean he should get chances, especially with creative players like Albert Gudmundsson supplying him.
With his pedigree, current form, and Iceland’s likely dominance, Gudjohnsen represents a smart option to get on the scoresheet.
Predicted line-ups
Iceland (4-3-3): Olafsson; Palsson, Gretarsson, Ingason, Ellertsson; Thordarsson, Willumsson, Haraldsson; A Gudmundsson, D Gudjohnsen, Thorsteinsson
Azerbaijan (4-3-3): Mahammadaliyev; A Huseynov, C Huseynov, Mustafazada, Cafarquliev; Nuriyev, Mahmudov, Ibrahimli; Emreli, Dadashov, Akhundzade
Anything else catch the eye?
Looking at the numbers, the split between Iceland over 1.5 goals and Azerbaijan under 1.5 goals makes sense. Iceland have regularly created enough at home to score twice against sides at a similar level. In their last five home competitive games, they have averaged 13.4 shots and 4.6 shots on target per match.
That volume typically translates into goals, especially as they also average 2.1 big chances created per game in Reykjavik. Against lower-ranked opponents, they often surpass 1.5 goals comfortably.
Azerbaijan’s defensive numbers reinforce this angle. In Euro 2024 qualifying, they conceded 2.1 goals per game and gave up an average of 6.2 shots on target per match. Their last seven away fixtures produced 25 goals against them, with only one game ending in fewer than two goals conceded. That pattern shows their inability to withstand sustained attacking pressure on the road.
At the other end, Azerbaijan’s attacking threat remains limited. Across their last 20 competitive matches, they managed just 11 goals, averaging 0.55 per game. Their shot volume is poor, sitting at 6.9 attempts per game, and they average only 2.1 shots on target. They rarely carve out big chances, and much of their attacking reliance falls on Mahmudov from midfield.
The fact that they have failed to score in half of those 20 games shows how consistently they fall short in the final third. The balance of statistics points clearly to Iceland being more likely to reach two goals while Azerbaijan’s ceiling remains low. That makes the combined bet logical and well-supported.
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