Houston Dynamo host CF Montreal in a clash between two sides at opposite ends of the current form table. Houston enter the match in excellent recent shape, having collected more points than any other Western Conference team over the last five games (W3-D1-L1). In contrast, Montreal are in a deep slump—no team across MLS has earned fewer points or conceded more goals during that same period, highlighting their alarming downturn.
Over the full season, Houston have a record of W5-D5-L7, scoring 1.29 goals per game while conceding 1.47. Their home form has been inconsistent (W3-D1-L5), and they have been vulnerable defensively, allowing 1.78 goals per game at Shell Energy Stadium. However, they have found the net in all nine home matches and recorded three clean sheets. One concern is their record against lower-ranked opposition at home—three losses from three—alongside five home games in which they have conceded at least twice.
CF Montreal, meanwhile, have been among the league's poorest performers, with a season record of W1-D5-L11. Their away form is similarly dire (W1-D2-L7), with just 0.71 goals scored per game and 1.88 conceded. They have failed to score in half of their 10 away outings and managed only two clean sheets, with just five matches conceding fewer than two goals. Despite both teams ranking 12th in their respective conferences on xGD, the stark contrast in recent momentum clearly favours Houston, who will see this as a major opportunity to capitalise on a Montreal side in freefall.
How the bookies view it: Hosts should win it
Bookmakers strongly favour Houston Dynamo for this matchup, pricing them at 8/11 to win, with the draw at 31/10 and CF Montreal significant outsiders at 4/1. The goal markets suggest expectations of a moderately open game, with over 2.5 goals available at 5/6 and both teams to score at 4/5. These odds imply around a 59% chance of a Houston win, 24% for a draw, and just 20% for a Montréal upset, while the over 2.5 and both teams to score markets are both hovering just above 50% probability—reflecting some uncertainty about Montreal’s attacking threat but acknowledgement of both sides’ defensive vulnerabilities.
Head to Head: Honours even
Houston Dynamo and CF Montreal have faced each other 18 times in MLS, with the head-to-head record perfectly balanced at eight wins apiece and two draws. Goals have been nearly even as well, with Montreal scoring 29 and Houston 27 across those matches. In terms of goal trends, 10 of the 18 meetings have featured over 2.5 goals, while both teams have scored in just seven of those games, indicating that many of the wins in this fixture tend to be one-sided rather than high-scoring shootouts with goals at both ends.
Predicted line-ups
Houston Dynamo will be without several players due to injury, including Erik Sviatchenko, Daniel Steres, Nelson Quinones and Matt Tarbell. CF Montreal also face multiple absences, with Fabian Herbers, Dominik Yankov, Bryce Duke, and Joel Bugaj all side lined. Additionally, Giacomo Vrioni is suspended after receiving a red card in late May.
Houston Dynamo (4-2-3-1): Bond; Andrade, Ortiz, Awodesu, Dorsey; Urso, Artur; Lingr, Bassi, Kowalczyk; Ponce
CF Montreal (4‑2‑3‑1): Sirois; Petrasso, Neal, Campbell, Bugaj; Loturi, Piette; Ibrahim, Clark, Vilsaint; Owusu
Players to watch: Griffin Dorsey to cause problems
Griffin Dorsey has played primarily at right-back this season, making 16 starts and one substitute appearance for Houston Dynamo. Despite his defensive role, he has been heavily involved in the attack—registering 24 shots (six on target) across his 16 starts. Remarkably, 16 of those shots have come in his last five starts, including six in his most recent match, underlining his growing offensive influence.
He has contributed two goals and four assists, and only two players in the entire Houston squad have taken more shots than Dorsey this season, a testament to how advanced his positioning is. His ability to consistently push high up the pitch and contribute in the final third makes him a standout figure in Houston’s system.
Anything else catch the eye?
Discipline could play a major role in this matchup, with both sides consistently involved in card-heavy encounters. Montreal have been fouled the second most times in MLS this season, drawing 14.18 fouls per game, while Houston commits the second most fouls, averaging 14.94 across 17 matches. This aggressive dynamic helps explain why Houston have the second-highest average for total match cards, with 5.41 per game, while Montreal also rank in the top third at 4.53.
Both teams are among the league’s worst offenders, each having accumulated the third-highest number of cards this season. Notably, no team in MLS has seen their opposition pick up more cards in away games than visitors to Houston, with Dynamo home matches averaging 5.67 cards. Houston themselves have received at least two cards in seven of nine home games and three or more in six of those nine.
Both teams to receive at least one card has landed in all nine of Houston’s home games, while both teams to receive 2+ cards has hit in five of those nine. The over 4.5 cards market has landed in six of nine Houston home matches.
On the road, Montreal’s matches average 4.2 cards, and they have picked up at least two cards in six of 10. In fact, they have been shown five cards in two separate away games. Both teams to receive at least one card has landed in nine of 10 Montreal away fixtures, while over 3.5 cards has cashed in six of 10.
At the time of writing, the referee for this fixture has not yet been confirmed, so card betting markets are not yet available. However, given both teams’ disciplinary records, this is likely to be a card-heavy affair once odds are released.
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