Honduras face El Salvador in what already feels like a must-win game in Group B. Honduras were thrashed 6-0 by Canada in their opener, and it was not a misleading score line. Canada generated 4.61 xG from 19 shots and created nine big chances. Honduras, meanwhile, had just seven shots, four on target, and an xG of 0.80. They were second-best all over the pitch and looked fragile defensively.
El Salvador also disappointed in front of goal but managed to escape with a 0-0 draw against Curacao. They offered almost nothing going forward, registering only six shots with one on target and producing just 0.19 xG. Their approach was physical—only two teams committed more fouls than them in the opening round—and the match was largely played at their pace.
In terms of FIFA rankings, Honduras currently sit 75th in the world, slightly ahead of El Salvador who are ranked 81st. That aligns with Honduras’ marginally tougher competitive schedule. They came second in Group B of League A in the Nations League, finishing ahead of Nicaragua on goal difference, before qualifying for the Gold Cup by beating Bermuda 7-2 over two legs. El Salvador had a smoother but less testing path, winning Group A in League B with five wins and one defeat against Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Bonaire, and Montserrat.
This sets up a clash between a Honduras side desperate to bounce back and an El Salvador team that will once again aim to frustrate and limit space. Honduras do at least carry more attacking intent and showed some flashes of promise, but after the Canada collapse, confidence will be low. Still, the quality gap should be enough to give them an edge, especially if they sharpen up their defensive shape.
A low-scoring game looks very likely
How the bookies view it: Low scoring home win
Bookmakers have Honduras priced at 5/6 to win, which implies a 54.6% chance of victory. The draw is available at 5/2, while El Salvador are out at 39/10.
In the goals market, over 2.5 goals is priced at 28/25, which leans toward a lower-scoring match. Both teams to score is 101/100, indicating that a clean sheet on one side is still considered the more likely outcome. Overall, the market expects Honduras to edge a fairly tight contest.
Head to Head: Honours even
Honduras and El Salvador share one of the most storied and politically charged rivalries in CONCACAF. The most infamous chapter came during World Cup qualifying in 1969, when football became entangled in wider political tensions between the two countries. A series of heated matches contributed to the outbreak of a brief military conflict known as the “Football War” or “100-Hour War.” Although the root causes were land reform and immigration disputes, the matches acted as a trigger for the violence. El Salvador invaded Honduras shortly after a contentious playoff game, and although a ceasefire was reached within four days, the conflict left a lasting legacy.
Since then, the rivalry has remained fierce. Matches between the two carry a weight that goes beyond the pitch. Even in more recent years, they have been hard-fought and emotionally charged. In their last 11 meetings, Honduras have won four, El Salvador three, with the other four ending in draws. Honduras have scored 14 goals to El Salvador’s nine, with those games averaging just 2.09 goals. Both teams have found the net in only three of those 11 games, highlighting how tight and low-scoring the fixture usually is.
Despite the historical backdrop, the matches themselves tend not to boil over. Across those eleven meetings, the average card count is just 3.36 per game, a surprisingly low number given the rivalry’s intensity. The emotion is real, but the discipline on the pitch has mostly held firm.
Predicted line-ups
Honduras (4-2-3-1):
Menjivar; Melendez, Montes, Vega, Rosales; Flores, Arriaga; Palma, Lozano, Elvir; Quioto
El Salvador (4-3-3):
Gonzalez; Tamacas, Sibrian, Cruz, Flores; Ceren, Cartagena, Osorio; Gil, Ortiz, Henriquez
Players to watch: Henriquez main hope for El Salvador
For El Salvador, Jairo Henriquez stands out as one of their more technically gifted players in the final third. He is direct, comfortable carrying the ball, and looks to drive at defences, but lacked end product in the opener against Curacao. He was, however, the only player to register a shot on target in that match, underlining just how dependent the side is on him for attacking output.
Now playing domestically for CD Aguila, he has contributed five goals and two assists from 18 appearances this season, all from midfield. That return highlights his importance as one of the few players in the squad capable of both creating and finishing chances. If El Salvador are to break down Honduras, it’s likely Henriquez will need to be at the centre of it.
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing both teams to score ‘No’ looks like one of the most reliable angles for this match. Honduras may have conceded six goals to Canada, but that was against one of the top sides in the region. El Salvador, by contrast, offered almost nothing in attack during their 0-0 draw with Curacao, creating just 0.19 xG and registering a single shot on target. They have now failed to score in five of their last eight Gold Cup matches and showed no real sign of threatening even a modest defence.
Historically, this fixture has been cagey—only three of the last eleven meetings have seen both teams score. More broadly, 13 of Honduras' last 20 games have seen both teams to score ‘No’, with eight clean sheets in that stretch. When they have conceded, it is mostly been against stronger nations like Mexico (FIFA Rankings 17th), Canada (30th), and Costa Rica (54th). Removing those three games, they have conceded just eight goals in their last 14 matches, three of which came against Bermuda in the play-off.
El Salvador have scored only 17 goals in their last 20 international fixtures and have won just five of them—against Anguilla, Montserrat, Bonaire, Saint Vincent, and Honduras back in January 2022. While their recent World Cup qualifying record looks respectable on paper, it comes with context. The teams they have faced so far are ranked 137 (Suriname), 157 (Puerto Rico), 172 (Saint Vincent), and 209 (Anguilla). For comparison, San Marino are ranked 210, Gibraltar 196, and the Faroe Islands 141. Against anything close to top-100 opposition, El Salvador have struggled badly in front of goal.
GambleAware