Celta Vigo visit Getafe on the final day of the La Liga season with European qualification still within reach. They sit seventh and must win to stay ahead of rivals. Getafe, by contrast, secured safety with a 2-1 win over Mallorca last time out, ending a run of six straight defeats in which they scored only once.
Getafe have struggled at home all season, winning just four of 18 matches (W4-D7-L7). They rank 15th for xPTS, 16th for xG (1.19), and seventh for xGA (1.13). Fourteen of their 18 home games have gone under 2.5 goals, and though they have kept six clean sheets, none have come against top-six opposition. They have failed to score in seven and are winless in 10 of 11 home games against teams sitting 13th or higher.
Celta’s away record (W4-D4-L10) is shaky, but they have scored in 16 of 18 away matches. Only three sides have scored more away goals, though only Valladolid have conceded more. Just three away clean sheets — two against the bottom two — highlight their vulnerability. Celta lead La Liga in away games with both teams scoring, hitting that mark in 13 of 18.
Recent form strongly favours Celta: eight wins from their last 15, with only four losses, two of which were against Barcelona and Real Madrid. With their attacking strength and clear motivation, they should edge this.
How the bookies view it: Low scoring away win
Bookmakers have Celta Vigo as narrow favourites for their final-day clash with Getafe, pricing them at 10/11. The draw is available at 3/1, while Getafe are 17/5, reflecting their poor recent form and lack of motivation compared to a Celta side chasing European qualification.
In the goals market, both teams to score is priced at 101/100. That is notable considering Celta have seen both teams score in 13 of their 18 away matches this season—the most in La Liga. Over 2.5 goals is offered at 6/5, indicating the market expects a relatively low-scoring affair overall, which aligns with Getafe’s home profile: 14 of their 18 matches at the Coliseum have gone under that line.
Head to head: Celta struggles in Madrid
Getafe and Celta Vigo have faced each other 27 times in competitive matches. Getafe holds a slight edge with 10 wins, while Celta has secured eight victories, and nine encounters have ended in draws. These matches have averaged 2.19 goals per game, with 17 fixtures producing under 2.5 goals.
In recent meetings, the results have been closely contested. Celta won the most recent encounter 1-0 at home on November 2024. Earlier that year, Getafe triumphed 3-2 at home. The previous season saw a 2-2 draw in Vigo and a 1-0 home win for Getafe. Overall, Getafe has been unbeaten in four of the last five matchups.
Looking at their performances in Madrid, Celta has struggled historically. Since January 2017, they have managed only one victory a 3-0 win over Getafe in October 2021. Since then, they have recorded seven defeats and two draws.
Players to watch: Battle for Uche
Christantus Uche, who has committed 48 fouls in 29 La Liga starts this season, is expected to face off against Oscar Mingueza in Sunday’s clash. Uche has made at least one foul in 19 of those starts and two or more in 16, reflecting his consistent role as a physical disruptor in Getafe’s midfield. He’s accumulated nine yellow cards and two red cards, underlining his combative style.
Mingueza, meanwhile, has been fouled 29 times across 33 league appearances this season. While that number suggests he is not typically one of Celta’s most fouled players over the full campaign, recent trends tell a different story. He has been fouled seven times in his last three appearances and 11 times across his last seven, indicating he is seeing more of the ball in advanced areas and drawing increased attention from opponents.
Predicted line-ups
Getafe will be without Luis Milla, who is suspended after picking up five yellow cards. Borja Mayoral is doubtful with a muscle strain, while both Alex Sola and Domingos Duarte are also considered doubtful due to muscle issues. These absences could force changes in both the defensive and attacking setup for Jose Bordalas.
Celta Vigo will be missing Carl Starfelt, who is ruled out with a hamstring injury. Javier Manquillo remains unavailable with a long-term ankle problem, while Jailson and Luca de la Torre are both doubtful due to ongoing fitness concerns.
Getafe (4-4-2): Soria; Nyom, Djene, Alderete, Rico; Iglesias, Arambarri, Uche, Terrats; Mayoral, Juanmi
Celta Vigo (4-3-3): Guaita; Mallo, Aidoo, Nunez, Galan; Beltran, Tapia, Veiga; Aspas, Larsen, Perez
Anything else catch the eye?
The referee for this match is Juan Martinez Munuera, a highly experienced La Liga official known for his firm control and frequent use of cards. This season, he has officiated 18 league matches, averaging 5.78 cards per game. He has also issued 6 red cards and oversees an average of 27.56 fouls per match, indicating that while he allows physical contests, he doesn’t hesitate to step in with bookings when needed.
In his most recent appearance, Martinez handed out 11 cards, underscoring his tendency to clamp down on rising tensions. Importantly, 17 of his 18 games this season have seen both teams receive at least one card. Fifteen have featured four or more total cards, and half of his matches have seen both teams pick up two or more. Another 50 percent have included five or more cards overall.
With Getafe’s combative style and Celta’s urgency to secure European qualification, this contest could become fiery. Martinez’s track record suggests a high chance of multiple bookings on both sides.
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