Germany and Denmark meet on Tuesday at Swissporarena in Luzern in a crucial Group C encounter at UEFA Women’s Euro 2025. Both sides experienced very different opening games, and this match could be pivotal for their hopes of progressing to the quarter‑finals.
Germany began the tournament with a commanding 2–0 win over Poland, a performance that underlined their status as one of the favourites. They completely controlled the game, enjoying 70% possession, firing 25 shots with 17 coming from inside the box, and creating four big chances. Their xG of 2.77 to Poland’s 1.03 showed how much more dangerous they were, even though Poland managed a couple of moments themselves.
In contrast, Denmark struggled badly in a 1–0 defeat to Sweden. They managed just 10 shots, only seven from inside the box, and created no big chances at all. Their xG of just 0.44 against Sweden’s 2.21 reflected a lack of cutting edge going forward, while defensively they were exposed, allowing 18 shots and conceding two big chances.
This sets up a fascinating clash. Germany look confident and in control, while Denmark will need to improve significantly at both ends of the pitch to have a chance. The numbers from their respective openers highlight the current gap between the teams — Germany’s dominance in possession and chance creation against Denmark’s defensive vulnerabilities and limited attacking threat.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Germany are heavy favourites at 3/10, which translates to an implied probability of about 77%. The draw at 5/1 gives an implied probability of roughly 17%, and Denmark at 9/1 suggests only about a 10% chance for an upset.
For the goal markets, over 2.5 goals at 4/9 implies a strong chance of a high-scoring game, about 69%. Both teams to score (BTTS) at 19/25 suggests bookmakers rate the chances of both sides finding the net at around 57%.
Head to Head: Closer than you would expect
Germany and Denmark have met nine times in women’s international football, with Denmark holding a slight edge overall. Denmark have won five of those matches, Germany have won four, and there has been one draw, with Germany scoring 14 goals to Denmark’s 12. In recent years the balance has swung toward Germany, who beat Denmark 4–0 in the group stage of Euro 2022 and 3–0 in the Nations League in late 2023, though Denmark did claim a 2–0 Nations League win over Germany in September 2023. In European Championship meetings specifically, Germany dominated in 2022, but Denmark famously knocked them out in the 2017 quarter-final with a 2–1 upset. The rivalry remains close, with both teams proving they can beat each other on the big stage.
Players to watch: Brand to good
Jule Brand was the standout performer in Germany’s 2–0 win over Poland, earning Meisterin of the Match honours with a decisive all‑round display. She scored one goal and assisted the other, showcasing both her finishing and playmaking ability. Brand had four shots, with three on target, repeatedly finding space between the lines and keeping Poland’s defence on edge.
In her last 12 games for club and country, Brand has started ten times and taken 20 shots, with 13 on target, an impressive return. Even more telling, in her last four matches she produced eight shots on target, highlighting her current form and sharpness in front of goal. If she brings that same level of threat against Denmark, Germany’s attack will be difficult to contain.
Predicted line-ups
Germany (4‑2‑3‑1): Berger; Linder, Knaak, Minge, Gwinn, Nusken, Senss; Buhl, Dallmann, Brand; Schuller
Denmark (3‑4‑3): Ostergaard; Farge, Pedersen, Veje; Thogersen, Holmgaard, Snerle, Hasbo; Harder, Vangsgaard, Thomsen
Anything else catch the eye?
Germany -1.5 Asian Handicap is a strong bet here because the underlying numbers and recent results point to a clear gap that should translate into a comfortable win. In their opener, Germany created four big chances, took six shots on target, and forced Poland into six saves, while Denmark conceded the same number of shots on target to Sweden but created no big chances themselves. Germany limited Poland to just six shots in their box, while Denmark allowed twelve in theirs, a telling sign of defensive vulnerability.
Germany have also been in excellent form over a longer stretch, with a record of W7-D1-L1 in their last nine matches, covering the -1.5 handicap in six of those seven wins. Over those nine games they have outscored opponents by an aggregate of 23–5, showing both attacking sharpness and defensive discipline.
What stands out is how Germany sustain pressure, keeping the ball in dangerous areas and forcing errors, while Denmark’s back three and wing‑backs struggled against Sweden’s runs and overloads, areas Germany exploit well.
With their recent record, superior chance creation, and ability to break down defensive setups, Germany are well placed to win this by two or more.
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